They say Obama has 267 and Clinton has 265.

See, this is the problem with the DNC not having an official tally, because all of these news organizations have different counts.

Here’s their reasoning…

Every news organization’s superdelegate count is a little different because it is an imperfect science. Since October 2007, the Political Unit has continuously reached out to the nearly 800 superdelegates to determine their candidate preference. We also reach out regularly to the Obama and Clinton campaigns for their superdelegate lists and work to confirm any that they include on their lists.

Seriously, check out how wide the discrepancies are.

ABC
Obama - 267
Clinton - 265

New York Times
Clinton - 263
Obama - 258

Politico
Clinton - 268.5
Obama - 260

CBS
Clinton - 271
Obama - 261

CNN
Clinton - 268
Obama - 258

NBC
Clinton - 274
Obama - 260

AP
Clinton - 271
Obama - 256

Our total right now is Clinton - 273.5, Obama - 264…which corresponds with NONE of these. However, if you take all of these, add them together (including subtracting 2 for Obama’s lead), guess what you get? An average of 8.6. Our margin is 9.5. That doesn’t necessarily make us right, but we’re closeish.

I’ll stick by mine for the time being until these folks figure something else out.

Wow, lots of news today. This one happened as I was writing the previous superdelegate pickup posts.

John Gage, the President of the American Federation of Government Employees, just endorsed him…

“Our people, I think, recognize the enthusiasm and vitality behind Senator Obama’s campaign,” AFGE President John Gage said.

Gage, a previously uncommitted superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention, said he is also personally endorsing Obama.

The post-Pennsylvania delegate pickup race has Obama leading 32 to 12.5, with the grand totals being Clinton - 273.5, Obama - 264.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

Myanmar (Burma) has long been one of the world’s most oppressive and brutal nations. But the recent cyclone is giving us all a glimpse of how profoundly evil the ruling party, called the junta, truly is. First, the junta hesitated for days before allowing international aid. Now, the junta has seized humanitarian supplies causing the UN’s World Food Program to halt shipments until the matter is resolved.

Myanmar has also refused to grant most foreign aid workers visas, making a full assessment of the situation very difficult. But estimates are that upwards of 62,000 people are dead and missing, thousands of children may be orphaned and the devastated delta region is most likely on the verge of a medical crisis. The longer Myanmar thwarts attempts to aid its people, the more people will die. The U.S. embassy has estimated that over 100,000 may die due to illness.

There doesn’t seem to be a lot us average Americans can do, although aid groups are accepting donations and even if only a fraction of the aid reaches people in need, it’s better than nothing. We can also read and support Burmese dissidents and make sure we elect American politicians who will lead international efforts to help the Burmese people end the junta’s rule.

While a cyclone caused the devastation, the junta is to blame for the growing humanitarian crisis. We sadly will be unable to save many of those the junta has decided to let die but we can do more in the future to help finally end this evil regime’s control of the nation.

No sooner do I write the post about Hillary below then I see another pickup for Obama.

I mentioned in the previous post that somebody defected to him today, and he added Rep. Peter DeFazio from Oregon, which is an important pickup before that state’s primary…

DeFazio told the Oregonian Thursday evening that Obama, who will begin a two-day campaign trip to the state Friday morning, “represents our best chance of winning in November.”

“We must not allow Senator McCain to continue the failures of the Bush foreign policy, war in Iraq and disastrous economic policies,” DeFazio added.

The post-Pennsylvania delegate pickup race has Obama leading 31 to 12.5, with the grand totals being Clinton 273.5, Obama - 263.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

This is almost the exact same post I wrote a couple days ago, and so far she’s simply running in place, unable to add any to her total.

First, she lost Rep. Donald Payne from New Jersey with the congressman citing the reason as trying to pull the party together…

“After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs,” Payne told The Star-Ledger for today’s editions. It was “one of the most difficult decisions I have made,” Payne said. “I’ve really been mulling it over for quite a while.”

Then she won Rep. Chris Carney from Pennsylvania…

“I have watched this primary process very closely, and as I said I would do, I have weighed the temperament and leadership displayed by Sens. Clinton and Obama during the course of this campaign,” Carney said in a statement. “We are extremely fortunate to have two very strong candidates vying to lead our nation. Pennsylvania’s 10th (Congressional) District (voters) overwhelmingly chose Sen. Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and I will respect their decision.”

Another problem here is that Clinton keeps winning supers whose districts she won. That doesn’t help her case that superdelegates should vote their conscience instead of obeying the “will of the people.” In fact, she needs some defections from Obama if she wants to make a real case for the nomination, but the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

And all this running in place (win one, lose one) still has the post-Pennsylvania delegate pickup race with Obama leading at 30 to 12.5, and with the grand totals being Clinton 273.5, Obama - 262.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

Lots of long interviews today.

Part One:

Part Two:

Lots of topics covered. What did you think?

He’s very, very cautious to not say he’s the winner, but his non-answer of the ill-conceived “victory party” plans is telling.

Will his campaign really make the big strategic mistake of calling the game before the last out is recorded?

First it was Rep. Brad Miller from North Carolina and now Rep. Rick Larsen from Washington.

The Hill has the details…

Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) surprise visit Thursday to the House floor has already paid dividends in the form of a superdelegate endorsement.

Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.) announced, after meeting with Obama at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters, that he would endorse the Illinois senator for president.

Larsen had planned to delay an endorsement until after Democrats voted in the last primaries in South Dakota and Montana. But the lawmaker said Obama’s performance in Tuesday’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana changed his mind.

“For me, what happened in North Carolina and Indiana ended up being a game changer,” said Larsen. “Especially in Indiana where he came back after getting hit hard for a couple of weeks.”

Obama now leads in post-Pennsylvania pickups 29 to 12.5, and the overall super totals are Clinton - 273.5, Obama - 262.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

On February 22nd, Hillary Clinton said the following in an interview with Diane Sawyer on Good Morning America:

So why was it the right number then, but it’s phony now?

Folks, this is about fairness, and you can’t move the finish line 3/4 of the way through the race and expect nobody to cry foul. You can call that Clinton Derangement Syndrome if you want, but these people seem increasingly allergic to reality.

The title says it all.

USA Today has the details:

More than 43,000 U.S. troops listed as medically unfit for combat in the weeks before their scheduled deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan since 2003 were sent anyway, Pentagon records show.

This reliance on troops found medically “non-deployable” is another sign of stress placed on a military that has sent 1.6 million servicemembers to the war zones, soldier advocacy groups say.

“It is a consequence of the consistent churning of our troops,” said Bobby Muller, president of Veterans For America. “They are repeatedly exposed to high-intensity combat with insufficient time at home to rest and heal before redeploying.” [...]

According to those statistics, the number of troops who doctors found non-deployable but who were still sent to Iraq or Afghanistan fluctuated from 10,854 in 2003, down to 5,397 in 2005, and back up to 9,140 in 2007.

So how “unfit” were they?

The Pentagon records do not list what — or how serious — the health issues are, nor whether they were corrected before deployment, said Michael Kilpatrick, a deputy director for the Pentagon’s Force Health Protection and Readiness Programs.

A Pentagon staffer examined 10,000 individual health records last year to determine causes for the non-deployable ratings, Kilpatrick said. Some reasons included a need for eyeglasses, dental work or allergy medicine and a small number of mental health cases, he said.

Listen, those things may seem small, but we’re talking about going into war zones. Anything can affect your readiness, and the difference between having eyeglasses and not having them could be incredibly significant. Same with an aching tooth or intense allergies.

One last sad example of how this played out…

At Fort Carson, in Colorado, Maj. Gen. Mark Graham ordered an investigation into deployment procedures for a brigade deployed to Iraq late last year. At least 36 soldiers were found medically unfit but were still deployed, Graham told USA TODAY.

For at least seven soldiers, treatment in the war zone was inadequate and the soldiers were sent home, he said, and at least two of them should never have been deployed.

I suppose these are things we force ourselves to do when we get into wars with little planning, poor strategy and no discernible way to declare victory.

Folks, let’s NEVER put ourselves in this situation again, okay?

FYI, if you ever want to do additional research on veteran health issues, you can check out IssueLab’s list of studies and quick facts. It’s a good resource.

The 2,025 number has been THE finish line since the beginning of the campaign. Not until the Clinton camp started to see their imminent demise did they start to make the argument that the “real” number is actually 2,209…which would include delegates from Florida and Michigan.

From Politico:

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

“We don’t accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two chief strategists. “It’s a phony number.”

Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC’s 2,025 number “every day,” as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.

I would have a different opinion of the value of their argument if she had said this from day one; that Michigan and Florida needed to be seated. That doesn’t mean I’d necessarily agree with it, but if she had said it before Iowa, I would have at least believed that she wasn’t trying to change the rules midstream. But she didn’t, and this latest ploy is beyond shameful.

In other words, theirs is turning into a phony campaign built on phony arguments delivered from phony partisans who will do or say anything to win.

Should the spouse of a presidential candidate be expected to disclose his or her tax returns if the couple files separately? That’s the question now that Cindy McCain has declared she will never make her tax returns public. Opponents of John McCain are already criticizing this move but Mrs. McCain says it’s a matter of privacy.

A natural impulse might be to ask “what is she hiding?” But that’s a slippery slope of an impulse. We can’t assume anyone who wants privacy has something seedy to hide. Then again, the McCain’s have to know that such a refusal will raise questions. Wouldn’t it be easier just to release her returns?

Personally, I’m o.k. with her keeping her tax returns secret. She’s always filed separately from her husband and has business and family financial interests that have little or nothing to do with John McCain’s public career. Even though she is now a “public figure,” I don’t think the need for transparency in government should require her to disclose financial matters that she’s always kept separate from her husband. We aren’t electing Cindy McCain and unless there are convincing allegations that John McCain has been using his wife’s finances to funnel illegal campaign contributions, I think we should respect the woman’s choice to keep her tax return private.

The national opinion is still tied, but we’ll only start seeing post Tuesday numbers in full on the weekend.

The details…

The May 5-7 update, which includes the first night of interviewing following the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, shows the candidates once again locked in a statistical tie. Neither candidate has held a significant lead for the last 15 days of Gallup tracking. However, Obama did well in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, suggesting that as the full impact of Tuesday’s results and the media coverage of the status of the nomination campaign sinks in with voters, he may move back into the lead.

Most political observers agree that Clinton’s chances of getting the nomination were seriously damaged with her narrow win in Indiana and Obama’s decisive North Carolina victory, which expanded his lead in pledged delegates. Just six contests remain and the largest of these only have about 60 delegates at stake.

More tomorrow…

Rep. Brad Miller has agreed to back the Illinois Senator…

Miller made his decision after meeting with Obama in Washington today.

“Senator Obama understands that he has the chance not just to win the election this year, but to be a great president,” Miller wrote in his announcement.

So that means Obama leads in post Pennsylvania pickups 28 to 12.5, and the overall super totals are Clinton 273.5 and Obama 261.

Of note, some superdelegates have met with Obama and Hillary today and have remained undecided. But one is leaning towards Barack.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

Not so long ago, Hillary Clinton seemed to be the inevitable Democratic nominee. Then the voting started and everything fell apart. What went wrong? Karen Tumulty of Time gives us Clinton’s five key mistakes. What’s interesting is that, with better strategists and operatives, Clinton could have likely corrected all five of these missteps. Here they are in shortened form.

1. She misread the mood and tried to run as a Washington insider/incumbent when the electorate was hungry for change.

2. Her strategists didn’t have a good understanding of the nomination rules. Allegedly, chief strategist Mark Penn was actually ignorant of the proportional allocation rule and thought just winning the big states would be enough to secure the nomination.

3. She underestimated the caucus states and chose not to put resources into them because she thought her core voters would be unlikely to caucus.

4. She relied on old money for fundraising and didn’t tap into the new modes of Internet fundraising.

5. She didn’t plan ahead for a long race and was very late to set up operations in states which voted after Super Tuesday.

While I think Barack Obama initially gained traction thanks to his superior style, he won (or soon will officially win) the nomination because of his superior strategy. He outplayed Clinton. Or, if you prefer, Clinton double faulted the match away. Political strategists will long study the failed campaign of Hillary Clinton to see exactly how such an inevitable candidate failed to make it out of the primaries.

Some have been saying Obama supporters are being paranoid about Clinton not dropping out.

Well, here’s the latest campaign email, sent out by Bill Clinton (emphasis added by the campaign):

Dear Justin,

I want to tell you about the day I had on Monday. I stopped in nine towns throughout North Carolina, starting the day at 7:30 a.m. in Elizabeth City and ending with a rally in Raleigh. That’s the most stops I’ve ever done in a single day — for any campaign. And I couldn’t be happier to work that hard for Hillary.

I talked to a lot of people that day, and one thing was crystal clear — people want Hillary to stay in this race until every last voter has a say. That’s why Hillary and I are working so hard. That’s why we’ve made a deep commitment to keep campaigning, keep fighting, and keep winning.

We have had a lot of success in this campaign, and our come-from-behind victory in Indiana is the latest example of how Hillary wins when she has your support behind her. As long as you share her commitment to winning, this race is going to continue.

Our next test is just five days away in West Virginia. Hillary needs your help right now to keep winning.

Contribute now to help us show the strength of our campaign.

I know something about coming back to win after you’ve been counted out. So does Hillary. Over the course of this campaign, the pundits have tried to declare a premature end to the race dozens of times.

Well, last time I checked, it’s still up to the voters. And there are a lot of voters who haven’t had their say yet.

It’s up to us to make sure that the voters in West Virginia and the other states yet to come are given a choice. I urge you to act now to help Hillary keep fighting.

Show your support by making a contribution today.

I wish I could talk to every last person who has worked so hard for Hillary to thank you for everything you’ve done for her. You mean so much to both of us. She’s still in this thing because of your hard work and your indomitable spirit.

Sincerely,
Bill Clinton

Now, I don’t know what “Crystal Clear” means to those of you who are saying Obama supporters have some sort of “Clinton Derangement Syndrome,” but between emails like this and Clinton’s “Whites like me better” comments, what exactly are voters on either side supposed to think?

Folks, these are “clear” signals. I thought she’d do the right thing and begin to signal that she’d drop out after Kentucky, but now I think she’s going to keep it going. Not only that, she’ll continue to attack Obama’s electability, even though he’s 20 runs up in the bottom of the ninth with two outs.

And yes, it’s certainly her right to keep going, but come on people…she’s over $20 million in debt. Does it make ANY sense to keep going at this point?

Remember, John and Elizabeth Edwards won’t endorse, but most of the Edwards crew has gotten behind Obama in a big way so it has the net effect of being endorsed by Edwards

And now he’s snagged possibly the biggest one of all. Well, except for Joe Trippi.

From ABC:

Bonior, a former Michigan congressman, was once the second highest ranking Democrat in the House, and is influential with labor unions.

Tuesday night’s results were said to be key to Bonior’s decision — specifically the fact that Obama’s lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, appears insurmountable.

Bonior is also said to like Obama’s general positive tone, as well as Obama’s message of change and stance against taking money from federal lobbyists.

Coincidentally, Trippi asks “Should Hillary be on the ticket as VP?”

Hop on over and give him your opinion.

Via Political Wire, George Stephanopoulos is reporting that she’s up to her ears, probably $20 million.

But if she’s only loaned her campaign roughly $12 million, what to make of the following Huff Post numbers that report anywhere from $10 to $15 million in other outstanding debt?

She has ruled it out, but a prompt withdrawal from the contest for the Democratic nomination offers Sen. Hillary Clinton the prospect of major rewards.

One of the most inviting is the near certainty that the Obama campaign would agree to pay back the $11.4 million she has loaned her own bid, along with an estimated $10 million to $15 million in unpaid campaign expenses.

In addition, Democrats, both those who are loyal and those who are opposed to her campaign, say the odds of her winning a top leadership spot in the Senate would improve dramatically if she gracefully conceded now. The icing on the cake includes an improved political climate, giving Hillary and Bill Clinton the opportunity to heal the rift with the black political community.

Can you start to hear the chant that says: “Get out. Get out. Get out.”

Bottom line, she’d get 10 more delegates than him. My guess is that he’ll probably accept this and she won’t.

However, the important part here is that this is being put forth by Michigan democrats, so it’s going to be very hard for her to say no at this point:

The state party’s executive committee voted Wednesday to ask the national party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would allow the state’s 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.

A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.

A message seeking comment was left on Ferguson’s cell phone Wednesday evening.

The DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of their convention delegates — 366 in all, including pledged delegates and superdelegates — for holding their primaries too early in the nominating process, which violated party rules.

More as it develops…

Okay, somebody has to stop this woman.

I thought she’d get a clue after Indiana, I thought she’d actually realize that the math was literally impossible at this point, but she’s apparently going to stick with this thing until every single last vote is counted and maybe even beyond that.

From USA Today:

Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters — including whites who have not supported Barack Obama in recent contests.

“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article “that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”

“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.

Oh, there’s a pattern emerging here all right. It started when she said Martin Luther King Jr. needed LBJ to get anything done and then in South Carolina when Bill dismissed Obama’s big win as being akin to Jesse Jackson’s win in 1984.

But hey, this is the last card she has left. “Psst…poor whites won’t vote for him. Pass it on.”

How disappointing indeed…

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said that in Indiana, Obama split working-class voters with Clinton and won a higher percentage of white voters than in Ohio in March. He said Obama will be the strongest nominee because he appeals “to Americans from every background and all walks of life. These statements from Sen. Clinton are not true and frankly disappointing.”

And by the way…as if that’s a broad coalition? Poor, uneducated whites? And older white women? I think she forgets that Bill won by bringing in a ton of new young voters into the process, as well as the African-American vote. Think she can do that in November?

UPDATE:
Here’s the audio:

Again, whites ARE supporting Obama. But not all whites. But if she thinks she has a much broader base, then why is she continuing to lose?

More specifically, the infamous Mark Penn thought so…and he didn’t get fired for it. They actually based their strategy off of it.

From TIME…

Clinton picked people for her team primarily for their loyalty to her, instead of their mastery of the game. That became abundantly clear in a strategy session last year, according to two people who were there.

As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state’s 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing any state to award them winner-take-all.

Sitting nearby, veteran Democratic insider Harold M. Ickes, who had helped write those rules, was horrified — and let Penn know it. “How can it possibly be,” Ickes asked, “that the much vaunted chief strategist doesn’t understand proportional allocation?” And yet the strategy remained the same, with the campaign making its bet on big-state victories.

Even now, it can seem as if they don’t get it. Both Bill and Hillary have noted plaintively that if Democrats had the same winner-take-all rules as Republicans, she’d be the nominee. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign now acknowledges privately: She underestimated the caucus states.

That’s the crazy thing! The strategy remained the same after Ickes corrected the rules. So the net effect is they simply took Penn at his word even though they knew the opposite to be true? WTF?

This squares with other reports that they didn’t really understand the caucus rules, never planned to have any resources in these states, etc. As I’ve said before, if Hillary’s performance in this primary season was any indication how she’ll run the White House, that’s reason #1 why she should never get the job. This campaign has been so badly mismanaged it’s astounding.

And how somebody with such a strong brand name in Democratic circles can get outmaneuvered at nearly every turn by a newcomer demonstrates a level of incompetency and inability to change that we don’t really want to repeat, if you catch my drift.

UPDATE:
Mark Penn denies the allegations…

There’s underlying tension here is over who gets the blame for Clinton’s technical failures to try to amass delegates in some of the smaller February votes; Penn and Ickes have each suggested that the other is responsible. It is hard to see how this all gets stuck on Penn. Ickes, as the Ickes-friendly anecdote makes clear, knew the rules.

If this came from Ickes, he could just be trying to further paint Penn as the buffoon, but in the process he’s painting Hillary as the bigger buffoon since she adopted Penn’s malformed strategies.

Maybe further down the road we’ll sort through all of this, but my money is on Penn being the one who assured Clinton that if she stuck with the big states, this thing would be over by Super Tuesday. Because they literally did not plan for after super tuesday. No joke.

Not only that, others have spoken publicly about Penn’s incompetence…

In an interview with The Observer, Mr. Panetta compared Mrs. Clinton’s top strategist Mark Penn to Karl Rove, suggested that the Clinton campaign had totally underestimated Barack Obama’s appeal, and complained about the overall lack of planning that he said had characterized the former First Lady’s bid to return to the White House.

Mr. Panetta, who served as chief of staff in the White House from July 1994 to January 1997, and who has contributed $2000 to Mrs. Clinton’s presidential campaign, complained that Mr. Penn “is a political pollster from the past.”

Long story short, it’s been obvious to many of us in the blogosphere how decidedly hacky and ill-prepared Penn was for a general election fight. Looks like the world is starting to find out too.

By the way, Penn is still employed by the Clinton campaign.

A quick roundup of opinions all across this great mediasphere of ours…

Whatever the case may be, she can’t win the nomination and the media has been waiting until it was obvious to say it. Seriously, last night the floodgates just opened and I think it had to do with how big Obama won North Carolina. Because now her last argument about the popular vote was completely gone. There’s no way she can catch up, even with Florida and Michigan.

So what will happen? Will she quit after all the primaries are over? Or will she bow out after Kentucky?

This Sunday should be a doozy.

She lost Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan but gained Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana.

So that means Obama leads in post Pennsylvania pickups 27 to 12.5, and the overall super totals are Clinton 273.5 and Obama 260. I have a feeling now that if he gets +14 on her before West Virginia or Kentucky, that may be the end.

Total pickups after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

Sorry folks, I misread something in a story earlier after a commenter gave me a heads up, but the AP makes a point that McGovern IS NOT a superdelegate, so Obama only added 3 superdelegates today and Hillary didn’t lose one.

From the AP:

“Hillary, of course, will make the decision as to if and when she ends her campaign. But I hope that she reaches that decision soon so that we can concentrate on a unified party capable of winning the White House next November,” he said.

McGovern is not a superdelegate, one of the prominent Democrats who has a vote at the national convention.

So the info was right in the first place, then wrong, now right again. Sorry about any confusion.

Thanks to Alan for the tip.

Total pickups are after the jump…
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Yesterday, Al Gore told NPR that the Myanmar cyclone was a consequence of global warming. Gore has previously alluded to Hurricane Katrina being a result of global warming as well. The problem is, there is no good scientific proof that global warming is influencing the destructiveness of these storms. Gore is making a conjecture and turning a tragedy into a political tool.

I’m no global warming denialist. I believe human action is causing the Earth to warm and our climates to change. I am an avid conservationist. But I am also appropriately skeptical of the global warming doomsayers such as Gore. I don’t take on faith that every change in temperature, every climate shift and every catastrophic weather event is repayment for our sins of carbon emission. Our climate and weather are far too complicated and naturally volatile for me to think there isn’t more affecting these systems than simple human action.

That’s why I cringe when I hear Gore and others connect horrible tragedies to global warming. Sure, these events make the problem seem very real and very immediate, but it’s scientifically dishonest not to admit that there is no hard proof that recent big storms are the result of our carbon emissions. You can’t one moment stand behind the banner of science and then the other moment conveniently leave out facts because those facts are inconvenient to your political objectives.

If we are going to rally the world to combat the human-caused elements of global warming, we have to stick to the scientific facts and resist the urge to inappropriately use weather-related tragedies to frighten people into action.

(NOTE: McGovern IS NOT a superdelegate. Changes reflected.)

Along with George McGovern, who I didn’t realize was a superdelegate until somebody reminded me in the comments (thank you!), Obama grabbed two more beyond the one I reported earlier. They are Jerry Meek, chairman of the NC Dem Party, and Inola Henry, a DNC member from Cali.

This makes the pickup contest after Pennsylvania 27 to 11.5 26 to 12.5 in Obama’s favor.

Again folks, this contest is over. The only thing we’re waiting to see if how Hillary will drop out and when. My guess is it’ll be after the Kentucky/Oregon primaries.

NY Times with more deets…

But they are arguably as important as – or more? – than former Senator George McGovern’s announcement today that he was switching from the Clinton to Obama campaign. That stirred headlines but did not shift the delegate count because he is not a superdelegate.

“Over the past year, I’ve watched as Barack Obama has drawn countless new people to the political process,” Mr. Meek said. “Although my position as state chair has led me to remain neutral through the primary, I’ve quietly celebrated as Barack Obama offered new hope to millions of Americans who have lost faith in the American dream after years of disastrous Republican policies.”

The total pickups are after the jump…
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Post PA, this puts the pickup race at 24 to 12.5. in favor of Obama.

First Clinton…

U.S. Rep. Health Shuler confirmed he is pledging his support for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, according to a spokesman.

Shuler, who had been an unpledged delegate, had said he would back the candidate who carried his 11th Congressional district.

Then Obama…

Jeanette Council has endorsed Barack Obama.

The Cumberland County commissioner, who is a Democratic Party superdelegate, told the Fayetteville Observer that she was backing Obama.

“I would have no problem voting for either of the two,” she said. “But of the two, I think Barack Obama is the better candidate.”

The total pickups are after the jump…
Read the rest of this entry »

As I said yesterday, we’re going to have to wait until Friday or Saturday to see the impact of Tuesday’s results. My guess is it’ll be significant.

The details…

The latest results include interviewing on Tuesday as the returns from the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic primaries were coming in. The night ended with Obama winning big in North Carolina and Clinton squeaking out a 2-point victory in Indiana.

According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted May 4-6, national Democratic voters continue to be split right down the middle in their nomination preferences. Today’s update finds 47% favoring Obama and 46% supporting Clinton.

More tomorrow…

The money game is starting to get hairy for her. Earlier this year she loaned her campaign $5 million, and now this latest brings her close to $12 million total. That’s not anywhere close to Romney’s $35 million bust, but we’re not talking about chicken feed here.

From TPM comes this from Hillary spokesperson Howard Wolfson:

“Senator Clinton gave the campaign a $5 million loan on April 11th, a $1 million lona on May 1st, and a $425,000 loan on May 5th,” Wolfson said, adding that she’d lent the campaign the money to keep pace with Obama’s spending on TV in Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina.

“The loans are a sign of Senator Clinton’s commitment to the race, to continuing the process, and to continuing to be competitive with Senator Obama on television and in other areas,” Wolfson said.

In addition, Wolfson said that she’s ready to loan herself more money.

My opinion? That’s unlikely. She’ll rack up these two wins in West Virginia and Kentucky with minimal expenditures, cut a deal with Obama to take care of her debt and then bow out after Obama takes Oregon handily.