The most shocking stat? Romney’s 23 point lead has evaporated…in a week!
Romney held a 23-point lead over Gingrich as recently as Jan. 11-15. Thus, in a matter of one week, Republicans who are registered to vote have shifted their support substantially — with Romney dropping 8 points and Gingrich gaining 14 points. The latest Gallup tracking update covers Jan. 18-22, encompassing Gingrich’s come-from-behind 12-point victory over Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina Republican primary. Gingrich began to gain on Romney well before Saturday’s vote, however, most likely reflecting his performance in the two nationally televised debates held in South Carolina last Monday and Thursday.
Looks like Newt is leading in most early polls before the debate and PPP had Newt up by 6 a day before the South Carolina primary, where he won by more than twice that.
Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).
Here’s why that’s good news for Gingrich…
1) His supporters are more committed than Romney’s. 78% of his voters say they’ll definitely vote for him compared to 73% for Romney, and among folks whose minds are completely made up he leads by 9 points at 45-36.
2) If Rick Santorum drops out between now and next Tuesday, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His voters prefer Gingrich over Romney 50-23, and in a field where he’s no longer a candidate Newt’s lead expands to 43-36.
3) Voters see him as better positioned ideologically than Romney. 52% think his views are ‘about right’ compared to 42% for Romney. Only 14% of voters think he’s ‘too liberal’ compared to 25% for Romney.
4) Newt is drawing out new voters. With the 11% of the electorate that didn’t vote in the 2008 primary, he leads 40-30. Meanwhile Romney is having trouble holding onto the folks who voted for him in 2008. 37% are supporting someone else this time, with 19% of them moving toward Gingrich. This was a big problem for Romney in Iowa as well- if he could just hold onto the folks who supported him last time he’d be winning easily. But he doesn’t inspire a passionate enough following to keep folks in the fold.
5) Newt’s continuing to do well with all the groups he dominated with in South Carolina. He’s up 42-23 with Evangelicals, 46-20 with Tea Partiers (Mitt’s actually in 3rd with them), 42-28 with men, and 44-23 with voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ which is the largest ideological group in the Florida electorate.
Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.
Romney’s campaign has always been about inevitability, but South Carolina’s winning record for picking the GOP candidate since 1980 has essentially smashed that…
Throughout the GOP race, Romney has always benefited from the perception that he was the strongest general election candidate in the field. However, among Florida voters at the moment, that is no longer the case. Forty-two percent (42%) now believe Gingrich would be the strongest candidate against Obama, while 39% say the same of Romney. At the other extreme, 64% see Ron Paul as the weakest potential candidate against Obama.
Looks like the GOP might have a long nomination fight on its hands, ala Democrats 2008. And that might not be the worst thing in the world because what that allowed Obama to have was a continuous national spotlight where people got to know him through the prism of a Democratic debate…instead of being defined by the Republicans.
Now, I’m not sure if that’s the best thing for Newt, but for Romney? Perhaps.
One other question…what happens when Santorum drops out? My guess is that a lot of that support will go to Newt because those are the GOPers who can’t abide by Romney’s former support for abortion or his Mormon background. And while I hate to be simplistic about such things, I have to think that if you’re casting your ballot for Santorum, you’re probably a single issue voter given how polarizing he is.
Pubilc Policy Polling, which has done some great work over the years, has Gingrich up in their first day of polling:
Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP’s South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking. Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field.
This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.
It’s clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich’s prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich’s lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn’t tune in.
Pundits tend to obsess over people who will never accept the #2 spot on the ticket. For instance, during the 2008 election, every other article was about how Barack Obama was “definitely going to select Hillary Rodham Clinton as his VP,” but deep down, you had to know that wasn’t going to happen — not after all they’d been through. This election cycle, people are still pining for Clinton. For the GOP ticket, the obvious favorite is Marco Rubio… but again, I really don’t see that happening. Every once in a while I come across a name that hasn’t been widely circulated in the Veepstakes yet, but ends up being so perfect I have to wonder why no one is squawking about it. One of these people is Paul Ryan.
Roots
If you’re looking for someone who appeals to middle class voters, Paul Ryan could talk nostalgically about how his hardworking great-grandfather started the Ryan Incorporated Central construction business. Or perhaps he’ll stump about his years of driving the Wienermobile for Oscar Meyer to put himself through college. Some of his other odd jobs during college included opening mail for Wisconsin Senator Bob Kasten as a lowly intern, waiting tables at the Tortilla Coast restaurant, and fitness training at the Washington Sport and Health Club, to name a few. He’s a pretty “real” guy, wouldn’t you say?
Career
Once he had his BA in Economics, his mother urged him to give up his dreams of being a ski bum and accept a position as a staff economist for Bob Kasten, which he did. Once Kasten was pushed out by Russ Feingold, Ryan went on to write speeches and contribute to conservative think-tank Empower America. He wrote speeches for Jack Kemp during the 1996 election cycle and worked as legislative director for US Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas. He was elected to the US House of Representatives (WI) in 1999, where he still works today. He was one of three founding members of the Republican “Young Guns Program” (along with Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy) in 2008, which was wildly successful in recruiting and generating enthusiasm for up-and-coming Republican leaders. In 2010, The Daily Telegraph ranked him the “9th Most Influential US Conservative,” and he won 68 percent of the vote that year in his re-election bid. He outlined his vision for America in a detailed paper entitled, “Roadmap For America’s Future,” which discussed topics like healthcare, job creation and debt reduction — all hot topics for this election. On Capitol Hill, he is very much known as a man who thinks bold and comes up with realistic solutions to America’s greatest problems. Just last year, he was named Chairman of the House Committee on the Budget.
Continue reading to learn about Paul Ryan’s popularity & what Mitt Romney has to say about him…
Stepping firmly onto Republican turf, President Barack Obama will announce Friday that he will ask Congress for the power to merge agencies to streamline government and improve efficiency.
First up on his list: the elimination of the Commerce Department and the Small Business Administration, which will be merged with the Office of the U.S. Trade representative and other independent business agencies into a new, unnamed Cabinet agency to create a more efficient experience for businesses.
“The government we have is not the government we need. The last reorganization of the whole government was done by Herbert Hoover,” Jeff Zients, deputy director for management and chief performance officer at the Office of Management and Budget, told reporters. “Since then, agencies have been layered on top.”
But will Republicans get on board?
They seem to be signaling they might…
“Americans want a government that’s simpler, streamlined, and secure. So after presiding over one of the largest expansions of government in history, and a year after raising the issue in his last State of the the Union, it’s interesting to see the President finally acknowledge that Washington is out of control,” said Don Stewart, a spokesman to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). “And while we first learned of this proposal this morning in the press, we’ll be sure to give it a careful review once the White House provides us with the details of what it is he wants to do.”
Rep. Darrell Issa, another frequent critic of Obama’s, said he stands “ready to work with President Obama on proposals to reorganize federal agencies.” Issa, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which oversees governmental reorganization, added: “While I have been disappointed that the White House has not embraced earlier bipartisan Congressional efforts seeking collaborative engagement on proposals to reorganize government, I hope this announcement represents the beginning of a sincere and dedicated effort to enact meaningful reforms.”
Over at Slate they point out some interesting parallels between 2008 and 2012.
Any of this sound familiar?
The social conservative (wins/almost wins, depending on what math you believe) Iowa. Flush with victory, eager to prove himself in all battlegrounds, he spends most of the next week in New Hampshire. But the surge can only take him from the margin of error to (13/9) percent of the vote. The old dream candidate, now a national laughingstock only known for a debate moment (“I’m not doing any hand shows”/”Oops”) has already moved on to South Carolina. He flies to New Hampshire just to participate in a debate, deeply annoying the supporters of (Ron Paul/Buddy Roemer), whose candidate had worked harder there. He polls a pathetic 1 percent, but stays in the race. The field is crowded enough that a horrified base sees how the front-runner, who’s won the endorsement of (Lindsey Graham/Nikki Haley), can win South Carolina with a plurality of the vote.
And how about between 2004 and 2012? Although this time it’s not a comparison between the GOPers, but between Mitt Romney and John Kerry.
Massachusetts politician
Super wealthy
Base isn’t excited about him
Is seen as a flip-flopper
Voted for or implemented key policy of opponent. For Kerry it was the Iraq war. For Romney it’s mandated health care.
Running as the “Anybody But” candidate
I’m sure if I thought some more I could come up with even more parallels, but it seems like I’m not the only one thinking this.
Can Mr. Obama overcome the bad economy, and perhaps even turn it to his advantage in certain ways, in the same way President George W. Bush overcame and in a sense turned to his advantage the bloody, expensive and increasingly unpopular war in Iraq eight years ago?
And can Mr. Obama do to his opponent – for now let’s say Mitt Romney – what Mr. Bush did to Senator John Kerry in 2004?
The parallels are sufficient enough that Mr. Obama and his team have studied, and to a striking degree are replicating, the Bush re-election playbook.
Already they are building a narrative in which Mr. Obama made politically brave decisions to do what was right for the economy, even if those decisions were unpopular. It’s a theme that echoes Mr. Bush’s argument in 2004 that he did what it took to keep the country safe, and that even if you disagreed with him, you knew where he stood.
As for defining the opponent, Mr. Obama’s supporters are already hard at work hammering home the idea that Mr. Romney is an inveterate flip-flopper, a man without core or convictions who says and does whatever is necessary to advance his political interests. It’s an approach that bears a passing similarity to the Bush re-election campaign’s efforts to paint Mr. Kerry as an inveterate flip-flopper, a man without core or convictions who. … You get the idea.
Mitt Romney followed up an easy victory in the New Hampshire primary by announcing he raised $24 million in the last three months of 2012, further establishing himself as the candidate to defeat in the GOP presidential race.
The total is the strongest quarter so far for Romney’s campaign and leaves him with $19 million in cash on hand. It is likely to dwarf what his Republican rivals report for their fundraising totals, and adds to a sense of inevitability that he will be the Republican challenging President Obama this fall.
How much did he raise all of last year?
Romney raised a total of $56 million in 2011, and has benefited from the support of outside groups, which have run ads in early-contest states savaging his rivals. This has allowed Romney to preserve some of his own resources.
Barack Obama’s presidential campaign reported that it and the Democratic National Committee together raised $86 million for the second quarter, blowing past what they said had been their goal of $60 million for the period.
Obama himself raised $47 million—more than he raised in the second quarter of 2007, and more than the entire GOP presidential field that has reported its cash haul so far.
I don’t think there’s any way he’ll be able to keep pace with Obama in 2012 in terms of fundraising, but maybe he doesn’t have to if enough money flows into those SuperPACs to attack Obama.
But then again…what are those SuperPACs really going to be able to do? Usually that’s an avenue for dirty laundry. But they can’t really attack Obama with the Reverend Wright thing anymore. And Fast and Furious and Solyndra really haven’t gone anywhere.
NBC is already calling it with 17% reporting, and it would definitely be difficult for anybody to catch up in such a divided field. Too many candidates taking away votes from each other.
Romney won with a coalition of those who thought electability and the economy were most important, as well as wealthy voters. Just over a third of voters in today’s primary said a candidate’s ability to beat President Obama was the top issue in deciding their vote, according to exit poll data available at 8 p.m. ET. Of those voters, 59 percent went for Romney.
Voters who said they were concerned about the economy also sided with Romney, who also won self-described conservatives and even Tea Party voters – two blocs that had seemed disinclined to support Romney in last week’s Iowa caucus, in which Romney scraped by with an 8-vote win. Sixty-one percent of voters said the economy was their top issue. Of them, 42 percent went for Romney.
So…the lingering question…will it be enough?
Back in 2008, Mitt got 32% of the vote and McCain got 37%. So while this 35% is 10 points better (if it holds up) than Ron Paul’s take, it’s not as impressive as him blowing away the field.
Also, what’s more impressive? Romney getting 35% when he got 35% last time or Ron Paul getting 25% when he got 7% in 2008? That’s a massive jump and the same can be said for Paul’s run in Iowa, which went from 10% in 2008 to 21% in 2012. Romney didn’t even reach 26% in 2012 in Iowa, which was his 2008 total.
Regardless, New Hampshire is over and South Carolina is next. Look for a lot of these candidates to mount their last stand. Personally, I think Huntsman may bow out after this, and Rick Perry should…but he probably won’t. So you’ll have a lot of negative ads directed at Romney and his Bain years, with Gingrich being the biggest spender.
Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP’s final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.
Romney’s support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP’s three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He’s the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters…85% of them say they’re definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.
Still, could Mitt’s “fire” comment cost him some votes?
I think so, and that could make it a lot closer than Mitt may want.
Mitt walked away with it. No question. Nobody was able to hurt him and since he’s up in New Hampshire and South Carolina…this nomination process could be over very quickly.
It’s Rick’s big night! The Iowa faith-based contingent really turned out this caucus for the underdog, and that should make waves in the evangelical community.
Will they support a Mormon? I think that’s a tough call right now. They definitely could, but it depends on what this group decides.
Personally, I think Santorum will be up all night waiting for the returns.
It looks like pretty much everybody has lost support in this except Santorum and Gingrich. And Santorum hasn’t had millions of dollars in negative ads lobbed his way.
Maybe that’s why his favorability numbers are so high…
Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum’s taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he’s at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he’s at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.
A few weeks ago Gingrich was the talk of the town, but looks like he peaked too early. The only person left? Well, besides Huntsman…who doesn’t have a chance in hell. Yes, Santorum. Who is far more unelectable than Huntsman, but don’t tell the evangelicals that.
But let’s talk reality. Paul is still technically in the lead with these numbers. Does he have a shot at it? Yes, but only if non-traditional caucus-goers turn out.
For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney’s 21% and Santorum’s 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.
Newsflash for all you Paulites…remember 2008? When you thought there’d be this big surge and there wasn’t? That reminded me of 2004 when I went up to help organize for Howard Dean. Long story short…non-traditional caucus-goers don’t turn out. Especially if it’s a highly confusing system like the Iowa caucus system.
In the Republican caucuses, each voter officially casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct and transmits them to the media.
In 2008, some precincts used a show of hands or preprinted ballots. The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party, which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the county conventions, which choose delegates to the district conventions, which in turn selects delegates to the Iowa State Convention.
Thus, it is the Republican Iowa State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which selects the ultimate delegates from Iowa to the Republican National Convention. All delegates are officially unbound from the results of the precinct caucus, although media organizations either estimate delegate numbers by estimating county convention results or simply divide them proportionally.
The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul’s winning equation in 2012.
But Romney has one big problem: passion.
Although Romney’s support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul’s 9%. It’s certainly still close enough that he could win, but there’s nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney’s biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.
It really looks like Romney wants to win Iowa, but, if Paul wins, he might be able to dismiss it as the handiwork of indies and Dems, not the true Republican base. And since that idea has already been peppered throughout the media, it should stick. Maybe.
But if Paul does win and Romney’s strategy is to win big in New Hampshire…he may face a problem. Because Paul’s politics play well there. But Paul has those newsletter problems that he simply can’t overcome. Regardless of whether or not he knew what was in them, he profited significantly from them and that’s damning for his general election chances.
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