So, Franken has finally won.

Now comes the hard part: establishing credibility.

Read the rest at True/Slant.

2012 is already ramping up for some folks.

From Radio Iowa:

A friend of mine in Des Moines, Iowa, got a phone call last night, testing out the names of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. It was an automated survey and did not indicate who the sponsor of the call might be, “but it was quite apparent it was a GOP call,” my friend reports. “…The survey started off by asking what I thought the most important issue facing America today might be, then rolled right into, ‘Who would you vote for in the 2012 Presidential primary?’ — offering choices of Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, Jindal, and JEB BUSH.” (Her boldface type, not mine).

The call also gauged what voters thought of Obama’s job performance.

I think it’s pretty obvious that this is the work of somebody in the GOP. In fact, Jeb Bush’s people could be behind it since he’s rarely ever mentioned as a candidate and Tim Pawlenty is more visible at this point.

So that begs the question…would a guy like Jeb have a chance in a post-Dubya world?

More as it develops…

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He’s not below 50% yet, but between these numbers and Gallup’s, the trend is clear.

Here’s more…

President Barack Obama’s first five months in office have seen his job approval remain stable overall - currently at a politically healthy 57 - 33 percent, but his disapproval has risen 8 - 10 points among several key demographic groups even as the national mood has improved somewhat in recent months, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

Approval among independent voters is 52 - 37 percent, compared to 57 - 30 percent in a June 4 survey [...]. The survey of more than 3,000 voters also finds that voters feel 32 - 30 percent that things in the nation have gotten better since President Obama was inaugurated. Independent voters say 32 - 27 percent that things are worse, with 40 percent saying things are the same.

Also, Rasmussen shows similar overall approval numbers, which usually fall in line with the number of independents who give the President a thumbs up…

Overall, 53% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove.

So what does this mean from a political survival standpoint…

First, the White House should be on notice, especially when it comes to the upcoming health care fight. In a post-Bush world, Obama can’t afford to play partisan games and shut the other side out of the debate. He has to be inclusive and at least think about developing a plan that appeases moderate members on both sides. That’s nearly impossible in the House since most of those Republicans are from very red districts, but in the Senate he can afford to lose folks like Snowe, Grassley, Collins and even the newly Democratic Specter. He needs those folks on board and publicly supporting him, otherwise independents will continue to leave.

Second, he has to reign in Pelosi. She has been running the show in the House and her partisan ways have been spread a lot of ill will. I’m not exactly sure why she doesn’t realize that her President promised bi-partisanship, but she better soon or risk facing a big turnaround in 2010. Now, this happened to Clinton and he was still a two termer, but Obama is becoming a more polarizing figure and it could hurt him more for the 2012 run.

Last, he should be very careful with this new supermajority and only use it when the public’s approval is firmly behind him. Otherwise, Independents will simply label Obama the liberal Bush and that’s a meme that will stick.

So those are my thoughts. What are yours?

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If we’re headed towards economic recovery, the path is unlikely to be a smooth one. At least that’s what June’s unemployment numbers indicate as the nation lost 467,000 jobs, more than 100,000 above estimates.

With unemployment now at 9.5%, a 26 year high, most economists foresee double-digit unemployment before the end of the year with numbers continuing to rise into 2010 before beginning to creep back down. Of course, when you figure in all those who’ve given up looking for a job and those who’ve had to settle for low-paying part-time jobs, the real unemployment rate is closer to 16.5%.

That’s a lot of unemployment for the economy to absorb. Given that some jobs aren’t coming back (automotive for instance) and others will have to come back from new sources (Linens n’ Things, Circuit City, etc.), there is no reason to think any recovery will be quick or easy. I suspect economists will be regularly confounded and estimates will be regularly wrong.

The hope is that, all-and-all, the economy trends upwards. We can handle a few bumps, I’m not sure we’d fare well under a long depression.

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Curious to learn more about Iran? Good.

Recently, I was sent 50 links to a bunch of great lectures on Iran, so I’ll share a few here and then send you over to True/Slant for more.

1. Islam and Modern Science:
   

   “Many people feel that that in fact there is no such thing as the Islamic problem of science. They say science is science, whatever it happens to be, and Islam has always encouraged knowledge, al-ilm in Arabic, and therefore we should encourage science and what’s the problem? -there’s no problem. But the problem is there because ever since children began to learn Lavoiser’s Law that water is composed of oxygen and hydrogen, in many Islamic countries they came home that evening and stopped saying their prayers. There is no country in the Islamic World which has not been witness in one way or another, to the impact, in fact, of the study of Western Science upon the ideological system of its youth.”

2. A Perspective on Iran’s Post-Revolution Political Economy:
   

   “The bleakest spot on the Islamic Republic’s 21-year performance record, and a constant threat to its survival, has been the economy. Downgraded by the regime’s founding father as unworthy of revolutionary pursuit, and described in the 1979 Constitution as “not an end in itself, but a means intended only to contribute to the attainment of the ultimate goal,” namely, “a movement toward God,” the post-revolution Iranian economy has remained the regime’s Achilles’ heel. Striving in vain to find an “Islamic model” which could put an end to what the revolutionaries called “crass materialism” and “consumerism,” the national economy has been managed in an ad hoc, improvised, and inconsistent manner. An unstable mixture of capitalism, populism and pragmatism with some ornamental Islamic topping has served as its anchor. As a result, the economy has moved from one crisis to another in an almost uninterrupted course.”

3. The Rise of “The Axis of Oil”—Big Trouble for the United States:
   

   “Linda Stuntz, who participated in a Council of Foreign Relations report last fall on “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency,” stunned the Senators when she said that there was consensus among the report’s authors that talking about “energy independence” for the United States was chasing an impossible dream. Stuntz said that it was not clear whether the U.S. could achieve energy independence even with the most “draconian” government interventions. Dr. Flynt Leverett from the New America Foundation echoed Stuntz’s analysis: “…there is no economically plausible scenario for a strategically meaningful reduction in the dependence of the United States and its allies on imported hydrocarbons during the next quarter century.”

If you want to read, watch, or listen to more, swing by True/Slant.

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Amid fresh revelations that Sanford crossed a physical line with more women than his previously acknowledged Argentine affair, Republicans in South Carolina are letting the embattled Governor know publicly (and privately) that he should get with the program and scram.

From The State:

On Wednesday afternoon, Senate President Pro Tempore Glenn McConnell became the latest — and one of the most significant — members of the S.C. legislature to say the governor should consider stepping down after admitting to an affair. [...]

Ten Republican state senators have asked the governor to step down, while others say they are leaning in that direction. The Associated Press is reporting that 14 Republican state senators are supporting a resignation, which is a majority of the 27 GOP members.

Yes, but did they hear Sanford’s King David defense?

It. Is. Over.

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Listen, I thought they should have done a revote in Minnesota, and I said as much on this blog. But nearly every single court decision went Al Franken’s way, and that’s just how it went down. Norm Coleman lost.

And when I watch the following inanity, I genuinely wonder if the folks at Fox News simply don’t care anymore about being anything but a mouthpiece for the RNC.

By the way, I count more than twice as many notable Republican politicians who were former celebrities than Dems. Actors include Arnold Schwarzenegger, Fred Thompson, Ronald Reagan and Sonny Bono. Sports stars include Tom Osborne, Steve Largent, Jack Kemp and Jim Bunning. Can you name anybody on the Dem side except for Bill Bradley, John Glenn and now Al Franken? I can’t think of anybody else who was genuinely well known other than those folks, but feel free to add others in the comments section.

But hey, whatever. It’s Fox.

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I’m looking to add 3 bloggers to the roster, and the following is a list of some qualifications I’d be looking for and expectations I’d have:

• You must understand the basics of blogging (linking to other sites, embedding pictures and video, etc.), and having a blog is preferred but not absolutely necessary.
• Good grammar and punctuation skills are a must.
• You can be affiliated with any political party or none at all. However, realize that this is a site that hews closer to the middle, so if you believe that the government should take over all means of production or perhaps you think the US should be converted into a religious state, well, you may not want to apply.
• You should be willing to commit to a minimum of 5 posts per week.
• If you’re engaged in multiple social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Digg, etc.) and are willing to use them to promote your posts, that would be a big plus.
• Be able to interact with the commenters on your posts and keep the conversation on track.
• Stay true to the spirit of the site and always make sure you keep your arguments sharp and your language clean.
• Opportunities for compensation may develop as we get closer to election season, but for right now these spots are unpaid.

So, if you’re interested drop me at line at justin at donklephant dot com and let’s talk.

Looking forward to hearing from you.

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“I am not unaware of the controversies swirling around this dinner, swirling around the speed — or lack thereof — that we’re moving on issues that are of great importance to you and, quite frankly, to me and to the president and to millions of Americans…. More importantly , I want thank you for being a critical — critical — voice for keeping the nation focused on the unfinished business of true equality for all of our people; and I know and this administration knows that we have so much more to do. I promise you, I promise you, with your help we’ll get there in this administration.”
(6/25/09, LGBT Leadership Council fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee)

Joe Biden said he had specifically requested to speak at the LGBT Leadership Council fundraiser and that his wife, Jill, is also interested in voicing her opinion on the issue. To a crowd of 180 people who paid $1,000 - $30,400 per plate to hear him speak, Biden gave a heart-felt message that the Administration is committed to making equality for gays and lesbians a priority during this term. Even though many were pleased with Biden’s message, there were hordes of protestors outside who were not pleased with the 265 gays and lesbians discharged from the military since Obama’s inauguration, which they say is a failure to follow through with campaign promises.

Read what Biden had to say about the Recovery Act & Violence Against Women here.

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When the world’s largest retailer backs something like this, it’s hard to ignore. Especially since they’ve had such a spotty record when it came to covering their 2 million employees in the past.

From The Hill:

With Wal-Mart’s endorsement of a legal requirement that employers provide health benefits to their workers, the nation’s largest employer has broken from the business community. [...]

Moreover, Wal-Mart declared its support for the employer mandate in a joint letter to Obama with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the liberal Center for American Progress, which is run by John Podesta, a close associate of the White House.

“We are entering a critical time during which all of us who will be asked to pay for health care reform will have to make a choice on whether to support the legislation,” says the letter, signed by Wal-Mart President and CEO Mike Duke, SEIU President Andy Stern and Podesta. “This choice will require employers to consider the trade off of agreeing to a coverage mandate and additional taxes versus the promise of reduced health care cost increases.”

Now, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is diametrically opposed to the mandate and actually attacked Wal-Mart as a result of this move…

“Some businesses make the decision to use the government as a weapon against their competition,” James Gelfand, the Chamber’s senior manager for health policy, said in a statement. “We do not agree with this method — the government is a blunt instrument and taxes have extreme unintended consequences, negatively affecting the economy as a whole. We also recognize that momentum is moving against an employer mandate. The business community will be stepping up our advocacy as necessary, too.”

First off, “weapon?” Really? Good lord…

Also, note the phrase, “taxes have extreme unintended consequences, negatively affecting the economy as a whole.”

I’m all for robust debate, but making such dire, blanket statements like that will not help the Chamber’s credibility with anybody but the die-hard conservatives/libertarians that think taxation is some evil plot to rob them of their freedoms.

In other words, they better strike a different tone or they may find their voice ignored in the coming months as businesses follow the lead of the most successful retailer in history.

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This isn't much of a surprise after today’s ruling, but the fact that he won’t prolong this any further is certainly welcome news.

From Minnesota Independent…

The former senator called Al Franken this afternoon to congratulate him on his victory nearly eight months after election day. The concession came shortly after the Minnesota Supreme Court issued a ruling naming Franken the winner in the protracted contest.

“I’m really at peace,” Coleman told reporters at a press conference at his St. Paul home. “I’ve had a lot of time to process this election, think about the past and look to the future. So I really have a sense of peace for where things are at.”

Coleman vowed to work with Franken as he becomes Minnesota’s junior senator. He insisted that the fact that Franken will become the 60th Democratic senator — giving President Obama a filibuster-proof majority — played no role in his decision-making process. “Whatever I can do now to be a unifying force that’s what I’m going to do,” he said.

And note that last paragraph…now Obama has a filibuster-proof majority.

But will he use it?

Discuss.

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I should come as no surprise that many Democrats pray for Sarah Palin to be the candidate in 2012, but many smart GOPers realize how much damage she could do to the brand.

That’s why we’re seeing pieces like this latest rather lengthy Vanity Fair exposé.

Read the rest over at True/Slant.

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Nearly 9 months after the election, there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel for Minnesota.

From the AP:

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - The Minnesota Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered that Democrat Al Franken be certified as the winner of the state’s long-running Senate race.

The high court rejected a legal challenge from Republican Norm Coleman, whose options for regaining the Senate seat are dwindling.

Justices said Franken is entitled to the election certificate he needs to assume office. With Franken and the usual backing of two independents, Democrats will have a big enough majority to overcome Republican filibusters.

However…

Coleman hasn’t ruled out seeking federal court intervention.

Ugh.

Norm…seriously…it’s time to pack it up. It was close, but you lost and every recount has shown that. Not only that, I think nearly every single court decision has gone against you. Minnesota needs a Senator and it’s pretty clear that you won’t be it. Move on already.

More as it develops…

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BOMBSHELL!!!!!

Matt Drudge creates the news so you don’t have to…

As the summer begins, White House watchers have spotted a new look by President Obama: The Evil Eye!

Staffers have joked about the menacing glance, which comes when the president meets with world leaders who are not aligned with his progressive view.

White House photographers have captured the “evil eye” in recent weeks, during sessions with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Colombia’s Alvaro Uribev.

I love the smell of partisan hackery in the afternoon…

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In a 5-4 vote, the Supreme Court has reversed the appellate court decision on a controversial race case involving firefighters in New Haven, Connecticut.

Previously, the appellate court including Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, ruled that the city of New Haven did nothing wrong by throwing out the results of a promotion exam because no African Americans and too few Hispanic firefighters passed the test. In a decision written by Justice Anthony Kennedy, the High Court disagreed:

Fear of litigation alone cannot justify an employer’s reliance on race to the detriment of individuals who passed the examinations and qualified for promotions.

Kennedy was joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Antonin Scalia, Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas. Predictably, the dissenters came from the “liberal block” with the dissenting opinion written by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg who said the white firefighters “had no vested right to promotion. Nor have other persons received promotions in preference to them.”

Sotomayor has been criticized for the appellate court’s decision, partially for its ruling and partially for what some perceive to be simplistic and faulty legal logic. If the Supreme Court had reversed the ruling with something other than the usual 5-4 split, Sotomayor opponents may have found some traction with this issue. However, with retiring justice David Souter essentially voting to uphold the lower court’s ruling, I imagine this case will quickly fade from the Sotomayor debate.

Note: The original title of this post implied the court ruled in favor of only white firefighters. This is an inaccurate representation of the case as two of the firefighters receiving promotion are Latino.

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“We always knew we were not going to get all that much fiscal impact during the first five to six months. The big impact starts to hit from about now onwards.”
- Obama economic adviser Christina Romer on when the economy will pick back up

And this is true. From the CBO’s projections back in January, the money was always going to ramp up in the second half of 2009 and into 2010.

Still, with unemployment rising…will Americans remember that?

From Financial Times:

Ms Romer said that stimulus money was being disbursed at almost exactly the rate forecast by the Office of Management and Budget. “It should make a material contribution to growth in the third quarter.”

But she acknowledged that cutbacks by states facing budget crises would push in the opposite direction.

Ms Romer said the latest economic data were encouraging, following a weaker patch a month ago. “I am more optimistic that we are getting close to the bottom,” she said.

The CEA chairman, who has forecast a sharper rebound in 2010 than most economists, said she had lowered her estimates for growth this year “and also for next year, a bit” since the start of the year. She said the consensus forecast that unemployment would continue to rise for the rest of this year and peak early next year was probably accurate.

If things don’t pick up in 2010, Dems better get ready for some losses in the midterms.

More as it develops…

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Have you noticed how little you’ve heard about Sonia Sotomayor lately?

The reason is pretty simple, there are bigger fish for the Republicans to fry. Replacing a liberal justice with a liberal justice on the SCOTUS isn’t a huge deal at the end of the day and they have to save their strength to work on health care reform.

Also, just like the rest of us, Republicans are poll watching and all signs don’t favor a fight.

Read the rest at True/Slant

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I haven’t done this for a couple Sundays, but David Axelrod is back to try and do some damage control on the economy and Iran.

Also, Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham talk about Mark Sanford and the future of the GOP.

Hello 2012.

What did you think?

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