If the contest is not zero-sum, what results would most strengthen or weaken both major parties?

Also, what are the costs of losing, especially the costs to each party of quietly throwing the contest?

I ask this because I’ve often seen it suggested, or assumed as fact, that the Republican Party, institutionally and in its higher reaches, does not really want to overturn Roe. Rather, it needs Roe in place to keep the pro-lifers permanently supporting the Republican Party, like a stupid donkey chasing a carrot that it will never get. Whether you believe that theory or not, it raises the questions: what would the long term consequences or costs of such a strategy be, and what would the long term consequences or costs of some equivalent strategy of quietly throwing the contest be for the Democratic Party?

Overturning Roe, making it a state issue, will result in Blue state amendments making it legal; and Red state amendments either adding many restrictions or making it illegal (with rape & incest & maybe genetic deformation exceptions).

It stays a plus for Reps until the Dems can accept some pro-life folk, maybe like Feminists For Life, who want lots of Dem type benefits: more, cheaper day care, pre-natal care, lower cost health insurance, longer maternity leave, etc.

While I disagree with your characterization of NARAL, your scenario is certainly intriguing.

And as far as the activist meme goes, can we put that to rest finally? Both sides can be seen as “activists” when cast in different lights. In short, This isn’t a place for talking points.

Democrats have their own factions:
a) absolutists like NARAL who support abortion on a whim until the last toe is out of the womb.
b) those who favor the current status quo, give or take minor practical adjustments like parental notification.

Outright reversal of Roe will drive a wedge between the two GOP factions, making abortion a live policy question all up and down the ticket. For the Democrats it does the opposite, and makes the more extreme faction hostage to the moderates.

For these reasons I believe Roe reversal will be a political gain for the Democrats.

When Roe does fall, and not before, the Republican Party will have proved itself to its pro-life supporters in a huge, permanent way. It will have proved itself morally, which stands for lasting gratitude. It will also have proved that backing the Republican Party is the way to get important things done. That’s clout, and that’s power. That in itself attracts supporters, including financial supporters, who will want that clout working for them.

Removing Roe will return the issue to the states, which in all but a possible few exceptional cases will legalise it at the state level. Abortion will be available instantly in all but a few places, and even there you just add the cost of a Greyhound bus ticket, which a pro-abortion state will probably subsidise anyway.

The differences will be:
(1) If you think pro-life is the way to go, you now have a chance to lobby to make your state pro-life, and then you have to stand and fall on whether people agree after a while that it was a good idea, the way you did it. In other words, you finally get the chance to be proven right or wrong, politically.
(2) The exact terms on which abortion is available will be up for grabs. That can make a difference of millions of lives – a small change like just a day of waiting, or an ultrasound of the person you’ll be ending may make a huge difference. And it can also prevent relatively rare but very shocking and um, morally (insert polite negative word here) practices, especially partial-birth abortion. There’s a lot of trial and error here, a lot of politics and pragmatism. (You want to save every life possible, but you can’t save every life. This is only what institutions like hospitals deal with every budget time. You have to set priorities and be pragmatic, while keeping your basic morality firm.)
(3) There are knock-on effects. The Supreme Court restricted people from making last-moment appeals to women on their way to abortion clinics. That could fall too. On the good side, again, you get the chance to make your case clearly. On the down side, you need to shut up the crazies and the haters who can make a human appeal for mercy into harassment. As things stand, the gag both stifles pro-lifers – and protects them. Pro-life people are going to have to learn more self-discipline and a whole new politics.

In all these things, the Republican Party is the pro-lifers’ friend. The Republican Party will be more important than ever after Roe falls, even on the single issue of abortion.

It will become a more state-oriented thing though. Wouldn’t it be nice to focus more on good government – and deal-cutting, and trial and error – at the state level, and less on desperate struggles over the Supreme Court? I think it would be.

Just my opinion, as someone who keeps a friendly eye on how pro-lifers are doing in America.

At the time, as a proponent of abortion rights, I celebrated the result; as a lawyer, I viewed the rationale with some misgivings. Abortion rights have become the hinge on which swing much larger questions of where the power to make law resides, distorting the discussion.