Comments on: A Post About the H5N1 Bird Flu Virus http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:19:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Chenodiol http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-384890 Chenodiol Tue, 27 Nov 2007 05:32:24 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-384890 <strong>Chenodiol...</strong> Chenodiol... Chenodiol…

Chenodiol…

]]> By: Bird Flu News Blog » Bush tours Ho Chi Minh City bird flu lab http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-120995 Bird Flu News Blog » Bush tours Ho Chi Minh City bird flu lab Thu, 23 Nov 2006 16:59:30 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-120995 [...] Donklephant - Nov 20, 2006By Montag | Related entries in General Politics, Military, Health Care. There has been buzz about this potential flu pandemic all over the place lately. … Read more… [...] [...] Donklephant - Nov 20, 2006By Montag | Related entries in General Politics, Military, Health Care. There has been buzz about this potential flu pandemic all over the place lately. … Read more… [...]

]]> By: Brad Arnold http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-118723 Brad Arnold Tue, 21 Nov 2006 12:21:34 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-118723 The antithesis of globalization is a pandemic of a highly contagious extremely lethal virus. There are two ways this can happen: 1. Most likely an influenza virus mutates into a new strain that infects humans. The last time this happened (the Spanish flu in 1918), it killed more people than all the world wars combined. I suggest reading Dr Osterholm's article "Preparing for the Next Pandemic." 2. Genetics engineering yields a novel virus for a bioterrorist pandemic. This hasn't happened yet, but read the CIA report A Darker Bioweapons Future for a chilling preview. If only one out of ten people in an advanced society are killed, it could collapse, because of the interdependence and specialization. Furthermore, airplanes make even remote places within a day's travel time away. Finally, goods and services now have to flow freely, or the global economy would collapse. In my opinion we've built a house of cards, waiting for the stiff wind of a severe pandemic to blow over. By the way, we've also built a virus machine, because of the inter-relationship between migratory birds and vast numbers of domestic poultry and swine. Few people realize what a novel virus that people don't have immunity to, and that is highly contagious, would quickly do...and it is virtually certain that it will happen in the next few score years. The antithesis of globalization is a pandemic of a highly contagious extremely lethal virus. There are two ways this can happen:

1. Most likely an influenza virus mutates into a new strain that infects humans. The last time this happened (the Spanish flu in 1918), it killed more people than all the world wars combined. I suggest reading Dr Osterholm’s article “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.”

2. Genetics engineering yields a novel virus for a bioterrorist pandemic. This hasn’t happened yet, but read the CIA report A Darker Bioweapons Future for a chilling preview.

If only one out of ten people in an advanced society are killed, it could collapse, because of the interdependence and specialization. Furthermore, airplanes make even remote places within a day’s travel time away. Finally, goods and services now have to flow freely, or the global economy would collapse.

In my opinion we’ve built a house of cards, waiting for the stiff wind of a severe pandemic to blow over. By the way, we’ve also built a virus machine, because of the inter-relationship between migratory birds and vast numbers of domestic poultry and swine. Few people realize what a novel virus that people don’t have immunity to, and that is highly contagious, would quickly do…and it is virtually certain that it will happen in the next few score years.

]]> By: clark http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-117598 clark Mon, 20 Nov 2006 18:46:37 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-117598 There were 1.8 billion people in 1918. Worldwide, 50 to 100 million died in the H1N1 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. A similar pandemic today would kill 200 to 400 million people. There were 1.8 billion people in 1918. Worldwide, 50 to 100 million died in the H1N1 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. A similar pandemic today would kill 200 to 400 million people.

]]> By: Hery http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-58875 Hery Mon, 07 Aug 2006 12:16:21 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-58875 Good job. Good job.

]]> By: Valium http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-10705 Valium Sun, 02 Apr 2006 01:11:57 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-10705 Hi :D Hi :D

]]> By: Jeremy http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-2723 Jeremy Wed, 05 Oct 2005 02:29:45 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-2723 Hate to plug, but I <a>discussed</a> on my blog whether or not this is actually something to get worried about. There is an oft-repeated assumption that this is a matter of when not if, but there are dissenting voices. Some people might have read the TNR article saying that bird flu will never cause a pandemic that I linked. I got a reasonably detailed rebuttal to some of those arguments in the comments, which was interesting. Hate to plug, but I discussed on my blog whether or not this is actually something to get worried about. There is an oft-repeated assumption that this is a matter of when not if, but there are dissenting voices. Some people might have read the TNR article saying that bird flu will never cause a pandemic that I linked. I got a reasonably detailed rebuttal to some of those arguments in the comments, which was interesting.

]]> By: Callimachus http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/comment-page-1/#comment-2715 Callimachus Tue, 04 Oct 2005 20:55:03 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2005/10/04/a-post-about-the-h5n1-bird-flu-virus/#comment-2715 I'm not sure the hurricane response offers any sort of template for an epidemic. A hurricane hits hard, fast, all at once across a broad front, and does massive infrastructure damage. Your objective is to disperse people away from it. None of those things is going to hold true in an epidemic outbreak. If anything, it's a disaster that's the inverse of a hurricane. The sarcasm clouds what you're trying to say. I don't know what you think ought to be done. It's not a matter of choosing federal control vs. state control, because that choice already is set by the constitutional structure of the federal union. If it doesn't work any more, it can be changed. Do we even need state armies in the post-1865 era? But we'd have to think through the consequences of that. I’m not sure the hurricane response offers any sort of template for an epidemic. A hurricane hits hard, fast, all at once across a broad front, and does massive infrastructure damage. Your objective is to disperse people away from it. None of those things is going to hold true in an epidemic outbreak. If anything, it’s a disaster that’s the inverse of a hurricane.

The sarcasm clouds what you’re trying to say. I don’t know what you think ought to be done. It’s not a matter of choosing federal control vs. state control, because that choice already is set by the constitutional structure of the federal union. If it doesn’t work any more, it can be changed. Do we even need state armies in the post-1865 era? But we’d have to think through the consequences of that.

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