Of course, it also could be true that the sects and the tribes are steering their young men into the military the better to have training, and their hands on weapons, when the Americans inevitably leave and civil war, as they anticipate it, begins.

Certainly the Shi’ites will continue to hold a balance of power in Iraq. Certainly they will continue to look to their ayatollahs for guidance. The example of al-Sistani has been encouraging, in terms of avoiding outright theology. His continued influence will matter, as will who rises up in the hierarchy after he dies.

Shi’ite theology is perhaps better suited to democratic systems than are the Sunni schools, for historical reasons.

Also, an Iraqi Shi’ite political power would not necessarily aling itself with Iran. There are still deeper Arab-Persian issues wrapped up in that, as well as the question of the center of spiritual power in the Shi’ite community (Qom vs. Najaf/Karbala).

On the other hand, they do have to be good enough to prevail against the insurgents. I think that has as much to do with motivation and morale as with capabilities. In order to fight and die, the Iraqi soldiers will have to believe in their cause. They’ll have to believe their government, country, people, are worth dying for.

To me the real question is: are these really Iraqi soldiers? Or are these tribal and sectarian militia wearing Iraqi uniforms? My suspicion is that we are training and equipping Shi’a militia.

My question for pro-war bloggers is, if it turns out that we’ve traded Saddam for a Shi’ite theocracy, will that be a success?