7 Lessons For Iran
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Foreign Policy, The War On Terrorism, The WorldGiven the things that have happened in Operation Iraqi Freedom, Charlie Munn put together some thoughts about what Iran may have learned from it.
This list feels dead on:
7. The media is your friend: Iran has been much better about laying out its case for acquiring nuclear technology than Saddam ever was. Part of this is because of the frequent news conferences they hold. The Western media has been iffy on covering this too much because of the mandatory Jew-hate in each speech, but if war seems likely on the horizon, you can bet that they will be amplifying Iran’s warnings and screaming for appeasements.6. Appeal to the “international community.� Like it or not, the people most directly threatened by a nuclear Iran are Europeans. Sure, there are US troops in Bagram and Baghdad, but if Iran goes nuclear, they become the “trip wire� that the 2nd ID serves as on Korea’s DMZ. Sure, a nuke could take out some of them, but it would trigger “total war� against Iran. Europe is the target here, with an Islamist insurgency forming that would be protected by an Iranian nuclear shield. Persians, historically, loathe societies they see as weak, but are easily willing to exploit them if they can. Europe seems perfectly willing to negotiate until they have nukes pointed at them, and Iran seems to be comfortable with this as well. Saddam was very bad at this, and preferred isolation to diplomatic engagement.
5. Use the economy, stupid. Yes, Iran threatened to put economic sanctions on itself if it was referred to the security council. That would be ridiculous if it weren’t so possible. Iran has plenty of domestic energy, and sanctions would only harm customers like Russia and China. Saddam was more focused on himself, I believe, than Iraq as a nation. He used the Oil for Food program to sap the Iraqi economy, turning the country into a drying husk before we invaded. Iran can wield their economy as weapon on the international scene.
Do read the whole list.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2006 and is filed under Foreign Policy, The War On Terrorism, The World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
