How Hezbollah (can claim they) Won
By Alan Stewart Carl | Related entries in Israel, The War On TerrorismIn 1948, Israel repelled the attacks of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Transjordan. In the Six Days War Israel used military force to stop a planned Egyptian attack and then defeated Syria, Iraq and Jordan when those nations launched their own attacks. During the Yom Kippur War, Israel again repelled attacks by Egypt and Syria.
Every time Arab nations have attacked Israel, the Israeli’s have won.
But today, after nearly a month of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, it is Hezbollah who claims victory. And now we see the future. Weaker nations and peoples have learned that it is futile to directly attack stronger nations and peoples. Instead, they wage battle through the asymmetry of terrorism. But because a terrorist organization follows no international laws and has no boundaries or government, these groups never have to surrender. As long as one man with a camcorder claims to be the representative of the group, the group survives. And, in the new paradigm, survival is victory.
So Hezbollah wins because they wrote the rules�or, rather, the international community has permitted them to write the rules. By treating terrorist organizations more as criminal gangs (or, in more deluded corners, freedom fighters), rather than treating them as semi-nation states, we allow them to continue the asymmetry. We let them define the playing field.
Of course, the problem is, some terrorists really are no more than criminal gangs, receiving orders from no higher power than their own personal delusions. But others are nation-states in everything but name or are obvious appendages of recognized nations. They have strong structure. They have global reach. And they have citizens�although we call them followers or believers.
In 2001, the international community recognized the reality of the situation when we collectively invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban, the bloodthirsty regime we rightly held responsible for al Qaeda’s attack on the United States. But then we became distracted. We misjudged the threat posed by Iraq and overestimated the benefit of ousting Saddam. And, at the same time, we lost the will to forcibly confront al Qaeda sponsors in the governments of nations outside of Afghanistan.
We seemed, not just as a nation but as an international community, unable to effectively balance law enforcement, diplomatic and militaristic solutions. Yes, such choices and judgments are far from easy. But this has been more than just an inability to plot the right course. This has been an inability to maintain the right vision.
President Bush has been much maligned for his “you are either with us or with the terrorists� statement. But he was right (in his own overly simplified way). Nations either support a stable world with recognized nation states conforming to a series of international standards OR they support the continued existence of terrorist groups. There’s no wiggle room there. Even though there is plenty of room to find new methods of confronting terrorists.
Somewhere in the blood, dust and confusion of Iraq (and perhaps also somewhere in the bright blindness of ivory towers), we have lost sight of the primary goal. And by “we,� I mean the international community. How else is it that the world failed to rally to the side of Israel and instead scrambled to find a way out for Hezbollah? Couldn’t we as a group of nations have worked together to eradicate Hezbollah while also saving Lebanon and the innocent Lebanese caught in the middle? Shouldn’t we have done this years ago?
Instead, Hezbollah survives and now claims victory. This is no way to solve the terrorist problem. This only gives it strength.
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August 14th, 2006 at 6:39 pm
Hezbollah would claim that they had won if Israel had slaughtered 90% of its forces and killed all of its leaders. These people have no concept of a pyrrhic victory. They will claim victory, no matter what happens, so claims of victory should be taken with a colossal grain of salt.
August 14th, 2006 at 7:16 pm
But Hizballah won
الا انØÂÂزب الله هم الغالبوÙâ€Â
ya, israel accepted cease fire coz it wished it, hizballah not a terrorist organizatin, terror is us and israel AND YOU KNOW THAT VERU WELL,
Hizballah are lebaneese ppl defensing for thier land, for lebaneese prisoner in israel’s prisons, which are turtored there!
Hizballah never loose, coz they have rights, they are lebaneese ppl, usa want that or not… they are lebaneese ppl and will keep alive
how many childrens, women and civillians killed by israel?
hizballah when they fight, they killed SOLDIERS attacking lebanon, not civilians as israel did and destoyed lebanon’s infrastructure
please when you judge, judge well. and see world’s media, NOT your cnn and fox, just try.
August 14th, 2006 at 10:42 pm
I agree with Mira toza Hezbollah did win because all Isreal did was bomb innocent people and Hezbollah actually attacked soldiers and troops.
And by the cease fire that isreal accepted showed that they don’t want to figt anymore because hezbollah is too strong of a force!
August 15th, 2006 at 8:42 am
Good analysis ASC. You’ve pointed out the single most amazing thing in this conflict. We’ve got a proxy of Iran, Hezbollah, occupying Southern Lebanon, using the territory and citizens for their own aims, and the international community is cool with this? They aren’t considered occupiers?
As long as there are nations willing to harbor terrorist organizations (Sudan, Afghanistan) or unable to expel them (Lebanon), there’s no way to “win� these engagements. As long as there are a large number of people willing to buy into the terrorist propaganda (see comments 2 and 3), there’s no such thing as a pyrrhic victory. They survived, gained prestige, they’ll replenish their numbers. It’s one more reason for me to hate what we’ve done in Iraq, because we squandered a great opportunity to change these rules.
August 15th, 2006 at 10:30 am
Anyone who thinks for one blasted second that Hezbollah won, is just fooling themselves. Apprently, some of you in here have very short memories. If you remember, it was Hezbollah that started this little war, by kidnapping two Israeli soldiers, (Which by the way, are still being held hostage). Israel is surrounded by enemies, and must, and will defend itself. Hezbollah spent 6 years getting ready for this war, and launched it when it felt the time was right.
Oh yeah, one more thing, yes, Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. And what do you do with terrorists, you kill them.
August 15th, 2006 at 11:47 am
I think you hit it right on the head…however, Hezbollah did not win…unless you define win as avoided being completely wiped out. They can claim victory all they want…it does not change the reality. If they continue to fire upon Israel, all the UN troops in the world will not protect their cowardly asses…even when they hide behind women and children.
August 15th, 2006 at 11:54 am
Of course Hezbollah won, are you people delusional? They don’t care how many guys they lost, they stood up to Israel, hit Israel in its heartland, and kept hitting them until a cease fire was agreed to. Israel said they would take down Nasrallah and disarm Hezbollah. They did neither. Now Nasrallah is effectively the prime minister of Lebanon, he still has plenty of missiles, and he’ll be able to fire them over the heads of so-called peacekeepers who will do nothing to stop him.
Israel lost and we lost. Iran won. Again.
August 15th, 2006 at 1:01 pm
We have heard the Republican neocon talking points before ad nauseam. ASC’s arguments are the regurgitated parochial malarkey of the Republican Administration who in their insulated world believe themselves to be the rulers of the world, and expect cooperation from a docile international community, just as they would wish nature to cooperate with them in fighting environmentalists. Unfortunately they have willing partners to concoct pre-emptive wars in the neocons who rule Israel now.
Since 2001 The Republican Administration has imposed the international rules regarding diplomacy, military solutions, the conduct of preemptive wars, and the enforcement and lack of enforcement of international law. The international community has been basically a bystander with nothing to gain by getting involved with the Americans. The administration, with international support, did well in Afghanistan in ousting the Taliban. It inflated, not really misjudged, the danger that Iraq posed to the United States, and decided to go it alone in a conquest to spread democracy–e.g. a system of representatives elected periodically by the people in free elections.
It has not worked in Iraq yet but the Palestinians and Lebanese have had an election. The fact that the neocons in Israel and the United States did not like the results is not the fault of the International community or of those people electing these anarchists. If you consider democratic elections the norm by which civilized nations should conduct themselves then why not try diplomacy with these freely elected terrorists, instead of refusing any diplomatic contact to force them to change their ways or else face destruction. Instead neocon propaganda depicts these people as subhuman and plot preemptive wars to destroy them. These wars end up supporting the continued existence of terrorist groups.
President Bush was rightly maligned for his statement “you are either with us or with the terrorists”. It is narrow minded demagoguery and fear mongering at its best.
You claim that the world did not support Israel. If you are right, the reason probably is that supporting another neocon preemptive war is not the way to solve the Israeli-Arab conflict.
Some time ago, it seems too long now, any Israeli leader could have started a preemptive war to finish off once and for all its Arab enemies and most likely would have been successful, since his muslim neighbors were as weak as ever, he had at his command overwhelming military superiority and his country had never lost a war with the Arabs. This particular Israeli leader did not pursue war, but rather used diplomacy and negotiated a proposed interim self-government with the Palestinians and the first stage of its implementation. He also signed the Israeli-Jordan peace treaty. Unfortunately the life of Yitzhak Rabin was cut short by a budding neocon, like the ones we have suffered for years now, who are more interested in war, than in trying to put these elected terrorists on the spot through an attempt at diplomacy
Not everybody in Israel supports this cowboy prime minister’s performance in this war, or the war itself. He could be out of a job in the not distant future. The neocon blitzkrieg preemptive wars, usually started on false premises of blind destruction and conquest end up causing instability, deteriorating national security and bringing suffering to all involved.
August 15th, 2006 at 3:53 pm
Shane wrote:
“I agree with Mira toza Hezbollah did win because all Isreal did was bomb innocent people and Hezbollah actually attacked soldiers and troops.”
What about all those rockets fired randomly into Isreali cites?
August 15th, 2006 at 3:54 pm
Whoops… That should say Isreali cities”.
August 15th, 2006 at 9:11 pm
“Couldn’t we as a group of nations have worked together to eradicate Hezbollah while also saving Lebanon and the innocent Lebanese caught in the middle? Shouldn’t we have done this years ago?”
Mr. Carl what are you proposing with this statement? What did you have in mind?
The proposed UN force that will be going in shortly, I believe, is suppose to disarm Hizbollah. I’ll believe that when I see it.
What the Arab-Israeli conflict needs is a political solution. It is the only thing that will defeat the terroist threat, which as you point out is asymetrical warfare and very difficult to defeat with conventional military methods.
August 15th, 2006 at 10:15 pm
LJ,
I’m not proposing any particular policy, just a particular mindset. If it’s a political rather than militaristic solution, than so be it. I don’t have much faith in this current agreement doing anything of much value but maybe I’m wrong.
Conservative Republican,
Feel free to call me foolish, but please don’t accuse me of regurgitating Republican talking points. That’s a cheap shot meant to make me seem incapable of orginal or constructive thought. I am not and have never claimed to be a neo-con, so your label is wrongly applied. Besides, your definition of “neo-con” is overly simplisitc. It’s not actually about war-mongering, if you pay attention to what real neo-cons say and not just want opponents say about them. It is about some rather flighty ideas concerning human nature and democracy, but that’s probably because neo-cons are actually an off-shoot of liberalism, not conservativism. But this isn’t the venue for a debate on definitions. I’ll just say that labeling all militaristic force with the pergorative use of “neo-con” is just obfuscating rather than advancing the debate.
August 16th, 2006 at 10:36 am
Mira toza,
I have a question for you. Do you support Hezbollah’s position that the state of Israel should be elimenated?
August 16th, 2006 at 1:55 pm
Hello Everyone,
First thing is Hezbollah has won. Second Hezbollah will always win (Future Wars). Third this is a start of World War 3. Isrealis have just made many believe that there army is weak since they have the most advanced technolegy and Hezbullah has nothing close to that; Think of it like Isreal with pistols against Hezbullah who has sticks n stones. Funny how USA didn’t do anything when lebanese people were dieing but when the numbers of Isreal soldiers dieing arises, they step in to inforce a ceasefire. I know for a FACT that this is not the end. This is a moment for all to recognize whats REALLY going on in the middle east and to wipe out the isreal state. Just as fast as it was created it can be deleted.
August 16th, 2006 at 2:01 pm
Also wanted to add that the 2 soldiers who were captured, wasn’t the reason why the war started. This so called war has been taking place for many years. Also the 2 soldiers that were captured were part of Isrealis TOP ASSASINS. They are the ones who assisinated Leb’s Hariri. They were trying to sneek into Lebanon. Reason is unclear but if you think of it. Why would Isreal send its top guys into Lebanon?
August 16th, 2006 at 2:50 pm
if you really beleive that hezbollah won , i have some beutiful sea side property to sell you in lebanon. how can you claim victory when your country has just been bombed back to the stone ages? did they destroy israel? no . did they keep israeli soldiers out of lebanon? no. what has hezbollah won? prestige for not cowaring under the israeli onslaught like the ” mighty arab armies” of the past? if surviving for 34 days(which is longer than most of the israeli – arab wars) is victory , its no wonder you will never defeat israel. as far as hezbolla only killing soldiers , thats a crock of you know what. they fired some 3500-4000 rockets into northern israel. war is war , people are going to die. its unfortunate that all those civilians died on both sides, it really is. but as we”ll hezbollah will not disarm and fighting will again erupt, but this time the death toll will be higher on both sides. when arab countries decide to love their children more than they hate israel then they can claim victory. peace love and recycle. oh yeah nassar what ever his name is , pretty brave for a guy who doesnt fight
August 17th, 2006 at 12:16 pm
Nations declare war to achieve certain goals, then they set down strategies to reach these goals, and once these goals are achieved, then this certain nation has won the war. Israel attacked Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah in the south of the country, and to stop and destroy all missile and rockets bases directly threatening the Israeli heartland, and off course to return the captured soldiers. Hezbollah is still in the south, with more than 84% of their forces still intact according to the Israeli military, and will not disarm, it has weapon loads of missiles and launchers that can pretty much reach Tel Aviv, and finally the kidnapped soldiers haven’t returned. So Israel hasn’t achieved anything, except the total destruction of the Lebanese infrastructure, which again isn’t Hezbollah, as we all know, they are a state within a state. So due to the IDF’s frustration with their results in their battles with the guerillas, they attacked and destroyed the other state, which is Lebanon. Israel sadly lost this round and is withdrawing from the field of battle, and major political upheaval in their government proves it more. As many in the Olmert government and many military officials will be will condemned and punished. Hezbollah won, but I doubt Israel will let it pass; something will erupt again, soon. And the Israelis learn from their mistakes but again experience since the year 2000 has toughened Hezbollah, and now Iran is backing it up with a lot of money of and equipment. It’s going to be a hard fight. The only loser in all of this is, are the civilians. And the USA’s unconditional backing up of Israel is only making it worse, as more and more hate surrounds the US government for its very poor foreign policy. The horrible handling of the US government of Iraq, (which is now on the bring of full open civil war), and the unbelievable silence we witness from them as the Israelis carpet and destroy pathetic and poor civilian lives in Gaza and other Palestinians authority controlled areas, just increases the hate directed to the US and its presence in the middle east. Thus increasing more hostile and terrorist attacks on US interests around the world.
And as for US citizens, what you see on Fox and your cable networks, is a lot different from what the rest of the world sees. You only see one side of the conflict. If you don’t believe it, ask yourself why everybody has grudge with you.
August 22nd, 2006 at 10:29 am
Reading what people are saying about the Hezbollah/Israeli conflict is making me want to scream!!! Does anyone study history out there in the world?? Why does everyone think Americans only get their information from Fox News? Maybe some of us get our opinions after researching the facts and ACTUALLY OPENING A BOOK rather than believing propaganda from wannabe Marxists and Fascists?
All of those who believe Hezbollah and HAMAS are poor little victims are falling for Marxist propaganda and “victimizing” any of those who oppose Western Culture. Read history people!! Those terrorists fighting for the destruction of Israel are Fascists!!! They supported Hitler!!! That is a historical fact. They are Fascists using a Maoist/Marxist style of warfare complete with brainwashing the weak minded and victimization propaganda. Hezbollah, Baathists (Syria and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq), HAMAS, some other Palestinian organizations, the government of Iran, all want Israel to no longer exist. I haven’t found a link from Iran, but all of the other organizations have links to the German Nazi Party. (read history books, it’s there) Does anyone know that the term “Iranian race” is related to the term Aryan race?
I know why people hate Americans. America still has people who have the ability to think for themselves. We haven’t been completely brainwashed by Marxist propaganda. Though we are fast heading in that direction.
Before you think I am a right wing nut who hates Islam, think again. My in-laws are Muslim and even they hate those crazy people in Hezbollah, HAMAS, etc. They dislike Israel because they dislike Jews as well, but do not wish for their destruction. They think Jews and Muslims should leave peacefully together. I believe that is how most Muslims believe. They just want to live a peaceful life.