Rising tide swamps Eastern Republicans
By Tom Z | Related entries in Elections, General Politics, News, PollsAt first glance, the title of this post may seem to be an error. Generally, Republicans are considered most threatened in the Northeast. However, recent developments have endangered countless Republicans serving east of the Mississippi. Even in the Deep South, the national mood is protecting vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Democratic momentum is evident in both the House and Senate races in the Eastern states:
In the race for Senate control, Democrats have been polling increasingly well in Tennessee, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. Polling in Virginia has been erratic, but all agree that Allen’s support has dropped considerably. In New Jersey, Menendez has regained a lead over Kean in recent polling. Democrats need a net gain of at least 4 seats among these races in order to have a chance of taking the Senate. Ohio and Pennsylvania have long been considered likely to switch while Rhode Island has been moving in that direction ever since the Republican implosion in the state. Polling in Tennessee and New Jersey also show clear trends towards the Democratic candidate.
In Tennessee, we see this:
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Two of the three most recent polls that show Corker close to Ford were both conducted by Zogby, noted for his erratic polling this election cycle.
In New Jersey, the shift is more pronounced:
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Things are also looking bleak for Republican House incumbents. Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, and New York all have the potential to contribute 2-4 House seats to a Democratic majority. Pennsylvanian incumbents in PA-06, PA-07, and Pa-10 have seen their reelection chances declining. These three seats are currently expected to change party. Democrats are also making progress in NC-08, NC-11, NY-26, Ny-24, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, FL-13, FL-16, and FL-22. These seats represent districts up and down the East Coast. The more seats Democrats can put into play, the harder it will be for Republicans to hold the House. Additionally, Republicans are forced to defend seats rather than attack them. For example, Democratic incumbents in GA-08 and GA-12 would be seriously endangered in any normal year, but with the mood of the electorate and a NRCC focused on minimizing casualties, Jim Marshall and John Barrows are safe. A Democratic incumbent in SC-05 can also breathe a sigh of relief.
Currently, I am projecting a Democratic gain of 18 House seats currently held by Republicans. In the Senate, all the competitive eastern races: PA, OH, RI, TN, and VA, are expected to go Democratic except Virginia. Six Republican seats overall are predicted to flip. For more complete coverage: Election Predictions.
This entry was posted on Sunday, October 8th, 2006 and is filed under Elections, General Politics, News, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
