Comments on: “Stay The Course” Is Dead http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Mon, 23 Nov 2009 07:33:07 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: probligo http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-86339 probligo Tue, 17 Oct 2006 09:35:23 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/#comment-86339 <i>"If we don’t do something soon, Iraq will be lost to us."</i> That, of itself should be a far greater source of concern than the government of an anti-semitic Hitler-ite idjit in the house next door. It is already a reality. Why? <i>" Either we pour more troops in there or we start a phased pullout and force Iraq to fend for itself. Since the former tactic looks increasingly less likely to happen because of political pressures at home, I’m guessing it’s going to be the latter. That’s a sad reality, and one I hate to accept, but I can’t help but think this is really the only way Iraq is going to ultimately fix itself."</i> Certainly right analysis, but incorrect conclusion. For a starter, the present state of Iraq is such that it is inconceivable that "Iraq is going to ultimately fix itself". Only if "ultimately" means next century, and that I will certainly not be waiting around to see. __________________________________________________ What is far more certain - 1. Tripartite Iraq (by mid next year). 2. Direct Iranian assistance for the Shi'a portion (as soon as the split can be put in place). 3. Direct Saudi support and assistance for the Sunni portion (self defence measure to protect Saudi from Shi'a influence and Iraqi Sunni refugees). 4. Direct involvement of Kurds in increasing Kurdish insurgency in Turkey (they have only one goal, and Kirkuk gives them the resource they need). Notice that none of that mentions the US. That is because there is an equal probability that the US will assist Israel in making (taking) punitive measures against Iran, Shi'a Iraq, and possibly Syria. Note that no mention is made of oil. If Iran joins forces with Shi'a Iraq then there will be sufficient control of present OPEC output to offset any compensating output from the remaining major suppliers. If that does happen (and it is less likely the further out I go) it will make 1976(?) look like a couple of dry days in January rather than a six month drought. <a href="http://donklephant.com/2006/04/12/if-an-oil-crisis-hits-which-cities-are-ready/" rel="nofollow">I suggest a re-read of this post.</a> “If we don’t do something soon, Iraq will be lost to us.”

That, of itself should be a far greater source of concern than the government of an anti-semitic Hitler-ite idjit in the house next door. It is already a reality.

Why?

” Either we pour more troops in there or we start a phased pullout and force Iraq to fend for itself. Since the former tactic looks increasingly less likely to happen because of political pressures at home, I’m guessing it’s going to be the latter. That’s a sad reality, and one I hate to accept, but I can’t help but think this is really the only way Iraq is going to ultimately fix itself.”

Certainly right analysis, but incorrect conclusion. For a starter, the present state of Iraq is such that it is inconceivable that “Iraq is going to ultimately fix itself”. Only if “ultimately” means next century, and that I will certainly not be waiting around to see.
__________________________________________________

What is far more certain -

1. Tripartite Iraq (by mid next year).

2. Direct Iranian assistance for the Shi’a portion (as soon as the split can be put in place).

3. Direct Saudi support and assistance for the Sunni portion (self defence measure to protect Saudi from Shi’a influence and Iraqi Sunni refugees).

4. Direct involvement of Kurds in increasing Kurdish insurgency in Turkey (they have only one goal, and Kirkuk gives them the resource they need).

Notice that none of that mentions the US. That is because there is an equal probability that the US will assist Israel in making (taking) punitive measures against Iran, Shi’a Iraq, and possibly Syria.

Note that no mention is made of oil. If Iran joins forces with Shi’a Iraq then there will be sufficient control of present OPEC output to offset any compensating output from the remaining major suppliers. If that does happen (and it is less likely the further out I go) it will make 1976(?) look like a couple of dry days in January rather than a six month drought. I suggest a re-read of this post.

]]> By: BenG http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-86225 BenG Mon, 16 Oct 2006 23:59:01 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/#comment-86225 Yes, Mr. Gardner, many things seem to be unraveling for this administration in this 11th hour (well, maybe 9th). What I wonder is why it's taken so long? The "I have political clout and I intend to use it" seems like a lifetime ago. When we first talked of invading Iraq I, like so many Americans filled with nationalistic pride, backed this president fully. But when notable insiders, such as Mr. Casey (sot sure of his name) the former head of the NSA who, so highly regarded, served thru the previous Clinton years into Bush's first couple of yrs. and then resigned when he saw personally how biased Mr. Bush was towards the Iraq situation. But he was simply ignored as someone doing advanced sales on his new book, like so many others: retired generals with an 'axe to grind', and on and on. And, therefore I became increasingly suspicious of his motives,even during the first year of the Iraq war and knew we were in big trouble. Is James Baker III releasing a new book soon ? Yes, Mr. Gardner, many things seem to be unraveling for this administration in this 11th hour (well, maybe 9th). What I wonder is why it’s taken so long?
The “I have political clout and I intend to use it” seems like a lifetime ago. When we first talked of invading Iraq I, like so many Americans filled with nationalistic pride, backed this president fully. But when notable insiders, such as Mr. Casey (sot sure of his name) the former head of the NSA who, so highly regarded, served thru the previous Clinton years into Bush’s first couple of yrs. and then resigned when he saw personally how biased Mr. Bush was towards the Iraq situation. But he was simply ignored as someone doing advanced sales on his new book, like so many others: retired generals with an ‘axe to grind’, and on and on. And, therefore I became increasingly suspicious of his motives,even during the first year of the Iraq war and knew we were in big trouble.
Is James Baker III releasing a new book soon ?

]]> By: Daniel DiRito http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/comment-page-1/#comment-86159 Daniel DiRito Mon, 16 Oct 2006 19:56:49 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/10/16/stay-the-course-is-dead/#comment-86159 The larger question is if this President can accept the more modest goals to be offered by Baker's task force or if they will be met by resistance or even a campaign to discredit. It is increasingly difficult to determine where George Bush's convictions end and his need to be right might begin. He has held fast to the argument that he isn't concerned with polls or politics and yet his reported convictions continue to evolve to fit the changing circumstances. The essential question is how he actually views the concept of adaptation. The evidence suggests that he prefers to adapt his rhetoric to fit the circumstances rather than adapts his strategy to address the realities. As he receives this important report, I fear the former...but I'm hoping for the latter. Read more here: <a href="http://www.thoughttheater.com/2006/10/iraq_reality_check_estimated_time_of_arrival_1108.php" rel="nofollow">www.thoughttheater.com</a> The larger question is if this President can accept the more modest goals to be offered by Baker’s task force or if they will be met by resistance or even a campaign to discredit. It is increasingly difficult to determine where George Bush’s convictions end and his need to be right might begin. He has held fast to the argument that he isn’t concerned with polls or politics and yet his reported convictions continue to evolve to fit the changing circumstances. The essential question is how he actually views the concept of adaptation. The evidence suggests that he prefers to adapt his rhetoric to fit the circumstances rather than adapts his strategy to address the realities. As he receives this important report, I fear the former…but I’m hoping for the latter.

Read more here:

http://www.thoughttheater.com

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