Final Election Predictions
By Tom Z | Related entries in NewsUnfortunately, time constraints have prevented me from posting on Donklephant as much as I, and more importantly Justin, had wanted. However, today is Election Eve (doesn’t it feel the same as Christmas Eve?), and I have finalized my predictions for tomorrow. I will post a nice little overview here, and for more in-depth analysis you can head on over to my site:
Senate (D): 49, +5
Senate (R): 49, -6
Senate (I): 2, +1
House (D): 227, +25
House (R): 208, -24
House (I): 0, -1
Governors (D): 29, +7
Governors (R): 21, -7
November 6th, 2006 at 7:44 pm
A couple brief comments from someone on the left side of the spectrum:
If I’m understanding correctly the senate independents will be Joe Lieberman (CT) and Bernie Sanders (VT).
Lieberman, from the point of view of Democrats, may as well have an (R) next to his name when it comes to his voting record these days. That and there is always the conspiracy theory that Lieberman will get an appointment within the Bush administration shortly after election. Thus leaving the governor of CT (currently Republican) the chance to replace him. So basically you can count him +1 Rep, -1 Dem realistically.
As for Bernie Sanders he is a self confessed “socialist” and founded progressive committees in his home state. Frankly its amazing that someone so progressive does so well in VT but he would seem to be treated as a loveable grandfather type figure. “Bernie Sanders votes with the Democrats 98 percent of the time.” according to Dean.
If your predictions were correct it would mean an effectively equal senate with the VP breaking ties. But seriously, Democrats have proven they don’t vote as a block anyway so the chances of the democrats having all 50 vote together on anything is a dream. Only the GOP could have pulled that off in the last few years and that was pretty much because independent thought wasn’t cool with the GOP base. Sadly if things continue down the road the Dem base will follow right behind them.
Anyway, I’m personally expecting Dems to only pick up 4 seats + Bernie. But it doesn’t matter anyway as I’ve mentioned.
I’m expecting +20 in the house. I think the robo call bullshit along with the usual suppression tactics will cost the democrats a couple points which will kill them in narrow races. That and the carefully planned Sadam announcement will probably boost Republicans a point or two adding on top of the robocalls. Too many races are within the MOE for it not to matter.
November 6th, 2006 at 8:33 pm
My Prediction here …
Note: Justin Gardner here…hello Justin of Two Turtle Lovers…I changed your URL because it was bleeding into the sidebar. Next time please use an “a href” tag. Much appreciated.
November 6th, 2006 at 11:28 pm
You must be smoking some good shit to come up with predictions like those, Justin. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow.
November 7th, 2006 at 12:37 am
Bruce,
Lieberman may have voted with the Republicans a lot, but if you think for a minute that he will vote with them when it comes to organizing the Senate, you might want to think seriously about getting a reality check.
If the results break as Tom suggests (assuming that, just for the sake of discussion, mind), then a whole lot of Senate committies have new chairs, and a lot of things happen differently. Whether you think that that would be a good thing or a bad thing depends, clearly, on your personal political views — but happen that way it would.
November 7th, 2006 at 10:27 am
It doesn’t really matter whether Dems can get their entire block to vote on any specific issue or not (they can, actually–just not always on the really big issues). All that matters tonight is that they get 51 seats so that they can be the majority party and hold all the chairmanships and make all the procedural decissions.
Lieberman has said repetedly that he will caucus with the Democrats. So he stays in the Democratic column. BTW, I’d hardly call a guy with a 100% rating from NARAL as being a natural Republican. The man is more conservative than your average Dem, but he has voted with the Dems on the vast majority of issues in his career.
November 7th, 2006 at 12:16 pm
crap…. I can feel my wallet getting skinnier already :(
November 7th, 2006 at 2:50 pm
You need to remember what state Liebermen is running in… It is a very blue state. He “was” a very conservative democrat. He is winning because he has the solid support from Republican voters.
Lieberman says he will caucus with Democrats because if the Democrats take a majority (unlikely) then he will be better placed. It’s a win win for him, if the Republicans somehow stop all democratic advances he’ll get a pat on the head from the Bush administration for being a good little faithful trooper. The Republicans basically sacrificed their own row on the ticket for his benefit. (Don’t believe me, go look up Ken Mehlman’s weasel words on why the national party won’t support their own local candidate.)
On the other hand If the Democrats advance on the senate he’ll get good placement in committees. Why? Because he still has the support of the “be centrist even if it means you stand for nothing” Hillary crew.
As for NARAL they are not the end all and be all of evaluating ones liberalness. Many liberals are pissed at NARAL for spinelessness the last couple years and there has been a lot of dissatisfaction with NARAL in the “netroots”.
There are a few good anti-NARAL posts up on DailyKos and other sites. Check the archives when they become available again after the websites survive the election onslaught and features are turned back on again. Yesterday kos from DailyKos was getting in on the act and posted “NARAL continues down the path to irrelevancy, working to enable a Republican House and lying about Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont.” to the front page. This sentiment has been expressed over and over again these past few weeks on DailyKos, MyDD, Crooks and Liars, etc (basically the core netroots sites). This is not love.
Anyway, just some observations from what I’ve seen and of course my own biased opinions. :)
November 7th, 2006 at 2:52 pm
“crap…. I can feel my wallet getting skinnier already :(”
Sadly governments can’t ask the courts to get rid of their loans and credit card debt. The bill for war time tax cuts and record spending is now due. Pay up.
November 7th, 2006 at 5:23 pm
[...] I’ve started to see some blogs make predictions about the outcome of tomorrow’s election. Take, for example, this bit of prognostication at Donklephant: Senate (D): 49, +5 Senate (R): 49, -6 Senate (I): 2, +1 [...]
November 7th, 2006 at 5:36 pm
I hope the Dems do take House and Senate. I will be waiting patiently tonight to see what happens.
If they do win, I will expect to see a lot of damage undone - bankruptcy code changes, detainee bill, Patriot Act, etc. - all need to be repealed.
November 7th, 2006 at 11:04 pm
Unfortunately Bush would probably veto any truly progressive legislation…he only likes stuff that give more money to his rich pals & corporations.