Comments on: China’s global reach http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: DosPeros http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128892 DosPeros Thu, 30 Nov 2006 23:17:51 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128892 Deng Xiaoping: To get rich is glorious. I love China. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_06/b3970072.htm Deng Xiaoping: To get rich is glorious.

I love China.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_06/b3970072.htm

]]> By: gordo http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128868 gordo Thu, 30 Nov 2006 20:49:23 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128868 <a href="http://www.tvo.org/TVOsites/WebObjects/TvoMicrosite.woa?bigideas" rel="nofollow">Big Ideas</a> recently had a lecture by Minxin Pei on China. The point that hit home most with me was Pei's suggestion that China, under its current political leadership, doesn't have the mentality for empire. To paraphrase, China doesn't have the "manifest destiny" belief that the US does. Another good tidbit was the fact that China's per capita GDP is only $2000 US. China as a whole is still quite poor -- although the party leaders will see more of that than the rural farmers. <blockquote> The subject of this lecture is the state of the ever growing, ever more powerful, ever more confident China today. Our guide is Minxin Pei, a senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. You can grab Pei's lecture in mp3 <a href="http://www.tvo.org/podcasts/bi/audio/BIMinxinPei112606.mp3" rel="nofollow">here</a>.</blockquote> Big Ideas recently had a lecture by Minxin Pei on China.

The point that hit home most with me was Pei’s suggestion that China, under its current political leadership, doesn’t have the mentality for empire. To paraphrase, China doesn’t have the “manifest destiny” belief that the US does.

Another good tidbit was the fact that China’s per capita GDP is only $2000 US. China as a whole is still quite poor — although the party leaders will see more of that than the rural farmers.

The subject of this lecture is the state of the ever growing, ever more powerful, ever more confident China today. Our guide is Minxin Pei, a senior associate and director of the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC.

You can grab Pei’s lecture in mp3 here.

]]> By: Sean Aqui http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128853 Sean Aqui Thu, 30 Nov 2006 20:06:04 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128853 <i>Can our knowledge increase as fast as the Chinese can upgrade?</i> It's always easier to play catchup than to break new ground, but the basic answer is "probably." History demonstrates that we have been able to do so for the last 50 years. Beyond that it comes down to spending research money and having the technical skill to work with some very tricky materials. Currently we do both better than anyone. If China made a concerted effort, including espionage, they could close the gap somewhat. But they'd still face the problem of affording the result (boondoggle though it may be, nobody else can afford to spend $1 billion on a single B-2 bomber). Eventually a much larger Chinese economy could support a much more robust military R&D establishment, and the much more expensive military such R&D would produce. But for the near-term at least -- say, 15 or 20 years -- our edge is safe. Can our knowledge increase as fast as the Chinese can upgrade?

It’s always easier to play catchup than to break new ground, but the basic answer is “probably.” History demonstrates that we have been able to do so for the last 50 years. Beyond that it comes down to spending research money and having the technical skill to work with some very tricky materials. Currently we do both better than anyone.

If China made a concerted effort, including espionage, they could close the gap somewhat. But they’d still face the problem of affording the result (boondoggle though it may be, nobody else can afford to spend $1 billion on a single B-2 bomber).

Eventually a much larger Chinese economy could support a much more robust military R&D establishment, and the much more expensive military such R&D would produce. But for the near-term at least — say, 15 or 20 years — our edge is safe.

]]> By: BenG http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128850 BenG Thu, 30 Nov 2006 19:56:01 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128850 Mr. Aqui; Thanks, it is very helpful to get this perspective, especially about the technology of the Chinese military. The question I have with all analysis is how fast is the situation evolving. Can our knowledge increase as fast as the Chinese can upgrade? What brings this to mind is the news today on Iraq. The situation there is changing so fast that I can't imagine how the administration or the military can make any meaningful decisions. It seams to be unraveling at a pace that makes anything we do obsolete. Now I realize the two have little in common other than the military analysis. But policy must be made now that will effect us later. Mr. Aqui; Thanks, it is very helpful to get this perspective, especially about the technology of the Chinese military. The question I have with all analysis is how fast is the situation evolving. Can our knowledge increase as fast as the Chinese can upgrade?
What brings this to mind is the news today on Iraq. The situation there is changing so fast that I can’t imagine how the administration or the military can make any meaningful decisions. It seams to be unraveling at a pace that makes anything we do obsolete. Now I realize the two have little in common other than the military analysis. But policy must be made now that will effect us later.

]]> By: Sean Aqui http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128744 Sean Aqui Thu, 30 Nov 2006 15:30:06 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128744 Dos: I'm not sure that applies at the level we're talking about. I'll grant that there are inefficiencies in the global economy, and there's no reason to think that more resources can't be found: that is, the global pie can get larger. I just think China's staggering scale swamps that. If 300 million people consume (more or less efficiently) a quarter of global GDP, then 1.3 billion people at the same standard of living would consume 130% or so of current global GDP. There are certain ameliorating factors -- technology could reduce the resource cost, or maybe China is aiming more for something like Europe, which sustains a high standard of living on fewer resources per person than America -- but in the end, in order for China to maintain a U.S.-type standard of living, real global GDP would have to more than double. That's a tall order. For the short term at least, I think Chinese demand for resources will outpace the world's ability to provide them. Dos: I’m not sure that applies at the level we’re talking about. I’ll grant that there are inefficiencies in the global economy, and there’s no reason to think that more resources can’t be found: that is, the global pie can get larger. I just think China’s staggering scale swamps that. If 300 million people consume (more or less efficiently) a quarter of global GDP, then 1.3 billion people at the same standard of living would consume 130% or so of current global GDP.

There are certain ameliorating factors — technology could reduce the resource cost, or maybe China is aiming more for something like Europe, which sustains a high standard of living on fewer resources per person than America — but in the end, in order for China to maintain a U.S.-type standard of living, real global GDP would have to more than double. That’s a tall order. For the short term at least, I think Chinese demand for resources will outpace the world’s ability to provide them.

]]> By: DosPeros http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128622 DosPeros Thu, 30 Nov 2006 13:57:26 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128622 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplier_(economics) try that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplier_(economics)

try that

]]> By: DosPeros http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/comment-page-1/#comment-128620 DosPeros Thu, 30 Nov 2006 13:56:41 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2006/11/29/chinas-global-reach/#comment-128620 Nice post, Sean. I'm not a fan of Keynesian economics, but assuming the "multiplier effect" has merit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplier_(economics) think about its application to China. It puts your contention that the Chinese can not sustain an increase in the standard of living into question. Nice post, Sean. I’m not a fan of Keynesian economics, but assuming the “multiplier effect” has merit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplier_(economics) think about its application to China. It puts your contention that the Chinese can not sustain an increase in the standard of living into question.

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