Food For Thought On Iran

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Foreign Policy, The War On Terrorism, War

This is but one opinion…however…

At a farewell reception at Blair House for the retiring chief of protocol, Don Ensenat, who was President Bush’s Yale roommate, the president shook hands with Washington Life Magazine’s Soroush Shehabi. “I’m the grandson of one of the late Shah’s ministers,” said Soroush, “and I simply want to say one U.S. bomb on Iran and the regime we all despise will remain in power for another 20 or 30 years and 70 million Iranians will become radicalized.”

“I know,” President Bush answered.

“But does Vice President Cheney know?” asked Soroush.

President Bush chuckled and walked away.

Frankly, I’m not sure what we should do with Iran. But I definitely fear we’ll act pre-emptively, and those tens of millions of Iranians would do exactly what Shehabi says. It would be yet another strategic blunder, and we can ill afford to lose that many hearts and minds. The Iranian public, especially the youth, are surpisinginly progressive in their views towards religion, etc., and it would a shame to turn them against us just because we don’t want Iran to get nuclear capabilities. Because even if Iran has the bomb, does that really mean they’re going to use it? Would they risk wiping out their entire country just to strike Israel? Because we all know that’s exactly what would happen. Iran is wiped off the map. Gone, goodbye, see ya.

Something tells me that these Mullahs are not that stupid. Mutually assured destruction worked in the Cold War and peoples’ desire to survive hasn’t changed much. Regardless of what you think about radical Islam, we all must remember that the suicide bombers are few, while the normal, everyday folk are many. Few want to give their life for their religion or their leaders’ view of their religion, and I hope our current foreign policy team remembers that.


This entry was posted on Saturday, February 10th, 2007 and is filed under Foreign Policy, The War On Terrorism, War. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Food For Thought On Iran”

  1. Jimmy the Dhimmi Says:

    “Few want to give their life for their religion or their leaders’ view of their religion”

    Relatively speaking, this is true, but tens-of-millions are already radicalized and have volunteered with the Basiji national guard, And there are enough to continuously and sporadically cause havoc at any opportunity around the world, nuclear or not.

    “Something tells me that these Mullahs are not that stupid. Mutually assured destruction worked in the Cold War and peoples’ desire to survive hasn’t changed much”

    Perhaps the Mullas are not that stupid, but they are 70 years old, and the younger generations have grown up on children’s television and school curricula that any decent person would consider child abuse; advocating martydom for the sake of religion and teaching that the end of the world is nigh with the 1400 year-old prophecy of a final battle with the Jews. They are coming of age now, and I somehow doubt that they will simply snap out of their brainwashing once they inherit the regime (if they haven’t already). Just look at the depravity of Palestine .

    Secondly, Iran will never launch a ballistic missile towards israel, but they have the capacty to smuggle one into lebanon with ease, and have Hezbollah launch one a warhead on a home-made rocket. Does the international community have the guts to encourage Israel’s retaliation and accept the nuclear armageddon of Persia, and the military annexation of Lebanon all the way to Beirut? Especially if the Iranians and the Lebanese play dumb and claim they had nothing to do with it, or that they cant control the terrorists?

    Expect those Mullahs to be on vacation that week.

  2. Jim S Says:

    There are two things worrying about Iran having nukes. First, certain forms of religion reach a fanaticism that renders reason and rationality meaningless. Iran has more than its share of those whose beliefs have reached that stage. They are also a fragmented society. All it would take is a few of those fanatics taking over a missile installation or simply giving nuclear technology to their “friends” to foment a disaster.

  3. Justin Gardner Says:

    Secondly, Iran will never launch a ballistic missile towards israel, but they have the capacty to smuggle one into lebanon with ease, and have Hezbollah launch one a warhead on a home-made rocket. Does the international community have the guts to encourage Israel’s retaliation and accept the nuclear armageddon of Persia, and the military annexation of Lebanon all the way to Beirut?

    On the first part, yes. On the second part, no. I think it’s pretty obvious why.

    All it would take is a few of those fanatics taking over a missile installation or simply giving nuclear technology to their “friends� to foment a disaster.

    All of these things are highly, highly unlikely. You’re talking about scenarios you’d hear on 24. We’re already talking about oversight that would be so far up Iran’s ass, that they wouldn’t have room to move. The nuclear fuel would be shipped out of their country. All of this is lost in the debate and situations like “Well, if some crazies…” We have GOT to start dealing with what is, instead of what we fear will happen.

  4. Jim S Says:

    Justin, what oversight are you talking about?? There isn’t going to be any oversight on our side. Are you trusting the Iranian government to put effective systems in place? Why do you think I mentioned the fragmentation of Iranian government and society?

  5. Jimmy the Dhimmi Says:

    All of these things are highly, highly unlikely. You’re talking about scenarios you’d hear on 24.

    If on September 10 2001, I suggested Islamic terrorists might hijack planes and destroy the World Trade Center, many people would have said something similar.

    Perhaps we should be hesitant to worry about every crazy scenario, but we must also avoid projecting decency onto people who actually are crazy, simply because what they proclaim is too barbaric for decent people to comprehend. Otherwise its like 1938.

    That is why I suggest everyone go on Youtube and watch some of that Palestinian children’s TV or view what kids have been taught there for the past 20 years, and imagine what someone like that would do with access to WMDs when they grow up.

  6. wj Says:

    Actually, if the Mullahs were rational they would say to themselves something like this:
    Suppose some Sunni fanatics manage to buy a bomb from (say North Korea) and blow it up in Israel. If we don’t have the bomb, we may be OK. But once we do, Israel will likely drop a few nukes on us out of general suspicion — even though we had nothing to do with it. Which leaves our faith at a massive disadvantage compared to the Sunnis. Who would be the ones causing us to get bombed; and we know they regard us as heritics. It’s a huge risk; is the reward of having the bomb worth it?

    So far, they seem to believe that the risk is worth the reward. Which would seem to argue against the rational-actor thesis. Then again, they haven’t actually demonstrated the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion yet. Maybe they think they can skate thru on ambiguity.

  7. BenG Says:

    Doesn’t it seem like forever since the Iraqi’s held elections and voted for their P.M. and cabinet? The admin’s was so outwardly optimistic, touting the courageous citizens for risking their lives, and rightly so, to build their democracy from the ground up. Where are those brave Iraqi’s now? Since that time so many things have happened, including many brave U.S. citizens going to the polls to vote, and rightly so, voting for change. The president has made so many blunders causing so much U.S. credibility to be lost with regards to our foreign policy. The consequences of this, as many predicted, is the weakening of our power and influence abroad. Does this limit our responses to the Iranians who’ve been emboldened by our ineptness? I don’t think there can be any doubt.
    I’m not sure what to do about Iran, or the whole Middle East mess. The one thing I do know is that I cannot depend on this government to get it right. Why should I? They haven’t just been wrong, they’ve been dead wrong, time and time again. The latest Inspector General report on the Pentegons handling of the situation reveals yet another failing grade.

  8. Justin Gardner Says:

    Justin, what oversight are you talking about?? There isn’t going to be any oversight on our side. Are you trusting the Iranian government to put effective systems in place? Why do you think I mentioned the fragmentation of Iranian government and society?

    The oversight by the countries who will be in Iran and take their nuclear fuel so they can’t use it to create weapons grade stuff. This has been discussed time and time again. Just because they have a nuclear program doesn’t mean they’ll get nukes.

    If on September 10 2001, I suggested Islamic terrorists might hijack planes and destroy the World Trade Center, many people would have said something similar.

    Perhaps we should be hesitant to worry about every crazy scenario, but we must also avoid projecting decency onto people who actually are crazy, simply because what they proclaim is too barbaric for decent people to comprehend. Otherwise its like 1938.

    I disagree. We can acknowledge that the world has changed without thinking we need to have a preemptive war to stop every country from having a nuclear program. What about North Korea? Are we going to declare war on them to so they won’t ship their nuclear secrets to Iran, etc.? Where does it end? For you it seems to always end up in something horrific happening. Well, that could very well be the case, but war isn’t necessarily the answer. That’s my overarching point. The more effective route could be a diplomatic one, where we don’t radicalize millions of Iranians the same way millions of Palestinans have been radicalized.

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