Justin, what oversight are you talking about?? There isn’t going to be any oversight on our side. Are you trusting the Iranian government to put effective systems in place? Why do you think I mentioned the fragmentation of Iranian government and society?

The oversight by the countries who will be in Iran and take their nuclear fuel so they can’t use it to create weapons grade stuff. This has been discussed time and time again. Just because they have a nuclear program doesn’t mean they’ll get nukes.

If on September 10 2001, I suggested Islamic terrorists might hijack planes and destroy the World Trade Center, many people would have said something similar.

Perhaps we should be hesitant to worry about every crazy scenario, but we must also avoid projecting decency onto people who actually are crazy, simply because what they proclaim is too barbaric for decent people to comprehend. Otherwise its like 1938.

I disagree. We can acknowledge that the world has changed without thinking we need to have a preemptive war to stop every country from having a nuclear program. What about North Korea? Are we going to declare war on them to so they won’t ship their nuclear secrets to Iran, etc.? Where does it end? For you it seems to always end up in something horrific happening. Well, that could very well be the case, but war isn’t necessarily the answer. That’s my overarching point. The more effective route could be a diplomatic one, where we don’t radicalize millions of Iranians the same way millions of Palestinans have been radicalized.

So far, they seem to believe that the risk is worth the reward. Which would seem to argue against the rational-actor thesis. Then again, they haven’t actually demonstrated the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion yet. Maybe they think they can skate thru on ambiguity.

All of these things are highly, highly unlikely. You’re talking about scenarios you’d hear on 24.

If on September 10 2001, I suggested Islamic terrorists might hijack planes and destroy the World Trade Center, many people would have said something similar.

Perhaps we should be hesitant to worry about every crazy scenario, but we must also avoid projecting decency onto people who actually are crazy, simply because what they proclaim is too barbaric for decent people to comprehend. Otherwise its like 1938.

That is why I suggest everyone go on Youtube and watch some of that Palestinian children’s TV or view what kids have been taught there for the past 20 years, and imagine what someone like that would do with access to WMDs when they grow up.

Secondly, Iran will never launch a ballistic missile towards israel, but they have the capacty to smuggle one into lebanon with ease, and have Hezbollah launch one a warhead on a home-made rocket. Does the international community have the guts to encourage Israel’s retaliation and accept the nuclear armageddon of Persia, and the military annexation of Lebanon all the way to Beirut?

On the first part, yes. On the second part, no. I think it’s pretty obvious why.

All it would take is a few of those fanatics taking over a missile installation or simply giving nuclear technology to their “friends� to foment a disaster.

All of these things are highly, highly unlikely. You’re talking about scenarios you’d hear on 24. We’re already talking about oversight that would be so far up Iran’s ass, that they wouldn’t have room to move. The nuclear fuel would be shipped out of their country. All of this is lost in the debate and situations like “Well, if some crazies…” We have GOT to start dealing with what is, instead of what we fear will happen.

“Few want to give their life for their religion or their leaders’ view of their religion”

Relatively speaking, this is true, but tens-of-millions are already radicalized and have volunteered with the Basiji national guard, And there are enough to continuously and sporadically cause havoc at any opportunity around the world, nuclear or not.

“Something tells me that these Mullahs are not that stupid. Mutually assured destruction worked in the Cold War and peoples’ desire to survive hasn’t changed much”

Perhaps the Mullas are not that stupid, but they are 70 years old, and the younger generations have grown up on children’s television and school curricula that any decent person would consider child abuse; advocating martydom for the sake of religion and teaching that the end of the world is nigh with the 1400 year-old prophecy of a final battle with the Jews. They are coming of age now, and I somehow doubt that they will simply snap out of their brainwashing once they inherit the regime (if they haven’t already). Just look at the depravity of Palestine .

Secondly, Iran will never launch a ballistic missile towards israel, but they have the capacty to smuggle one into lebanon with ease, and have Hezbollah launch one a warhead on a home-made rocket. Does the international community have the guts to encourage Israel’s retaliation and accept the nuclear armageddon of Persia, and the military annexation of Lebanon all the way to Beirut? Especially if the Iranians and the Lebanese play dumb and claim they had nothing to do with it, or that they cant control the terrorists?

Expect those Mullahs to be on vacation that week.