Never Assume.
By sideways | Related entries in General Politics
Three points I’d like to make for any Democrats who may read this blog.
1) The party is overreaching on Iraq. I know it looks like a ’slam dunk’ that Iraq will still be a disaster say, 20 months from now, but it isn’t. Yeah, the odds are it will be. But maybe not. Maybe it will look like the surge bought Maliki just enough space to work a compromise with the Sunnis. Maybe it will look like the little bit of peace the surge could bring, gave Ayatollah Ali (medieval old bastard, but not virulently evil) Sistani enough of a breather that he could rein in Muqtada (the fat little creep) Al Sadr and reassert his own authority. Maybe pacifying Baghdad freed enough resources to put a serious hurt on Al Qaeda in Al Anbar. Maybe Maliki’s deal-making undercut the Sunni insurgency.
Yeah, not likely. But not impossible.
In short, we may just get a reasonable facsimile of limited success. Enough for the American people to breathe a sigh of relief and get back to obsessing over missing/exploited/dead blondes.
Hillary is probably wise to equivocate. Edwards has bet it all on American failure. Obama likewise. The House Dems ditto. Dems need to remember that the American people, even if they expect failure, are not going to reward the John the Baptists of Defeat.
Or is that Johns the Baptist of Defeat?
2) There’s a name out there that Democrats don’t want to think about that they should be thinking about. That name is Jeb.
The conventional wisdom is that Jeb can’t run. The conventional wisdom is wrong. It’s magical thinking. It’s faith-based politics.
If we can have a second Clinton we can have third Bush. The Right loves him. If it were not for the fact that his idiot big brother is at 35% Jeb would be shoo-in. So what if I’m right about point #1 above? And what if George W. gets his dead cat bounce and is sitting at 45% six months from now? Still think Jeb can’t run?
The Right doesn’t like McCain, won’t like Giuliani when they get to know him, and probably can’t swallow flip-flopping, magic-Mormon-underwear-clad Romney. But they love Jeb. Jeb is their Republican Messiah. A savior with Florida in his pocket. All Jeb needs is one well-crafted line to put some air between himself and his brother. Don’t count him out.
3) Yo, Hillary. (I’m sure she reads this blog religiously.) One word for you, sister: Gore. Obama is already fading. Edwards is weaker than the pundits make him. Bill Richardson, who probably should be president, and Joe Biden, who should probably be Secretary of State are not gaining traction.
Gore would sweep up the crunchies and the peaceniks. He’d have money. He has experience. He’s already won one presidential election. And I suspect the voters will be more interested in competence than in likability this go-round.
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February 14th, 2007 at 9:07 pm
Glad to have you back Mike.
February 14th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
At this point I don’t really see anything Jeb could do that could sufficiently distance himself from the Bush legacy his brother has created. Sure he might sweep the Right, but at this point does that really count as an electable plus in the national sphere?
February 14th, 2007 at 9:36 pm
Dustin:
Let’s play pretend. Jeb vs. Hillary. How do the Dems talk about Bush fatigue? If they try to tar Jeb with George W, they open the way for Republicans tarring Hillary with Bill. Neither side can whine about dynaties. The voters would have no choice but a rerun.
Jeb carries Florida. So tell me what state Hillary takes away from him?
February 14th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
Giullianni is saying all the right things to court conservatives right now, such as how he would pick Judges from the same crop as Roberts and Alito, he’s got the same position on gay marriage as Pres. Bush, and he is a federalist on gun control.
Conservatives really want a no-nonsense Giuliani type for the Commander-in-Chief, and they are hoping he will accomidate them on social issues. I think they will be pleased with what he has been saying so far, but look for the mainstream press to play up his personal views, despite his promises of federalism and judicial constructivism, because the MSM really doesn’t want another pro-war republican president.
February 14th, 2007 at 10:16 pm
Do you really believe, after all that Bush has done to tar his own family name, that Bill lying about a BJ will really be all that detrimental to Hillary’s chances in the WH? I’m not so sure. And even though I’m not a Hillary supporter I don’t really know how much it will matter who the democrats field in ‘08.
Animosity towards the Bush administration being what it is what are the chances, realistically, of the republicans being able to get out from under GWB’s shadow in time to salvage their carefully crafted reputation and win the presidency?
Elections are referendum more often than not and the republicans gave us Bush, do you really see the public wanting 4-8 more years of what we’ve just gotten done with?
February 14th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Points #2 & #3 scares the crap out of me. Although he has said he is out of the running, he could change his mind. And, yes, he would take Florida. I wish we were smarter than that down here, but we are not. And compared to both other Bushes, he appears squeaky clean with a popular record as governor of Florida. But he is just as far right wing as Cheney & Wolfowitz.
If I was Al Gore, I would set my sights on the Presidency or nothing at all. Eight years as second banana didn’t help him, & another 8 puts him out to pasture anyway. So he gains squat as VP. If, however, the Democratic convention became deadlocked, he would be a good choice to break the deadlock. And I believe he could win, even against Jeb, as long as he remains Al Gore & doesn’t try to be what he thinks we want him to be as he did in 2000 & quits inventing the internet.
February 14th, 2007 at 10:27 pm
“I love my brother. I love my father. But I’m not my brother or my father. I’m my own man. My name is Jeb.”
“I can’t lay claim to my brother’s successes, or his trials. I can only lay claim to my own.”
“My opponent, Mrs. Clinton, would not be the Democratic nominee if her name was not Clinton. I believe I would be the nominee of my party even if my name were not Bush.”
February 14th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
I should clarify I suppose given the names that I am “sideways.”
February 14th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
One is true. Two is wrong, not in 08 but maybe in 2012 if the GOP loses in 08. Point 3 is also true for the most part, but I am still holding out hope for Richardson.
February 15th, 2007 at 12:12 am
Obama is fading? What evidence of there is this?
How can he already be fading? He just started his campaign.
February 15th, 2007 at 7:05 am
Jeff:
That’s a personal judgment obviously and I could be 100% wrong. My instinct is that he fades. I think he flew too high, too fast, and has no machine to prop him up, or experience to fall back on.