Comments on: Permanent Majorities: Ideal Or Curse?

By: sleipner

sleipner — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 17:02:53 +0000

From what my friend the history professor has told me, societal beliefs tend to run in cycles, trending from conservative to liberal and back again over the course of decades. Fortunately, the centerpoint of those cycles tends further and further towards the liberal over time, as antiquated ideologies are trounced by better education and greater access to media and information.

That having been said, we are obviously at the end of the conservative cycle now, so I expect things to run liberal for at least a decade or two now (crosses fingers). The best news is the more conservative the cycle, the more extreme and long the corresponding backlash cycle is likely to be, and this cycle has been about as conservative as they get. Hopefully it has happened soon enough to avoid drowning half the coastal cities of the world from global warming.

My biggest concern is the control over the media that the conservatives have managed to accumulate – unless that trend is halted, conservative disinformation and propaganda will have a far bigger voice in our society than it has in all but the worst of fascist dictatorships, and could easily derail the march of progress(ivism).

By: Ablogistan

Ablogistan — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 16:24:14 +0000

Monday numbers: Party identification

A recent Pew poll reveals some pretty dramatic reversals in party identification within the last few years. The public was split 43/43 in Republican/Democrat identification in 2002, but Democrats have now taken a significant lead with 35/50 split this…

By: grognard

grognard — Sun, 25 Mar 2007 15:41:08 +0000

The Republicans need to get back to their Goldwater conservative roots and can the Rove hyper partisanship of the Bush administration. With the firing of the Justice department attorneys IÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢m not holding my breath but if the investigation does lead to Gonzales resigning then maybe Rove will see his influence decline, like Cheney before him.

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 16:01:45 +0000

People, the permanent majorities thing was a joke. That’s why I said “Heh.”

By: bob in fl

bob in fl — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 12:55:28 +0000

Ooops. Forgot to say the graph I refer to is in the link “Kevin Drum speculates”

By: bob in fl

bob in fl — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 12:53:18 +0000

What permanent moderate majorities? If we look at the moderate trend of the graph, we find that those who declare themselves moderate bouncing back & forth between 11 & 14% over the past 17 years. That is a long way from a majority.

On the other hand, the overall trend is moving more to the left during that time. That means our perception of being a moderate is probably also moving toward the left. Or maybe that many who call themselves moderate are switching to the Demo0cratic Party.

Obviously the graph tells only a small part of the story. It doesn’t identify swing voters from either Party, which would be a better gauge of moderate voters. Using that measure, the moderates might be a small plurality, which would be about 17 votes shy of a majority.

By: Ryan

Ryan — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 12:01:58 +0000

That is, of course, you believe that this is a permanent status.