Prediction: Ron Paul To Place 2nd In Iowa Straw Poll
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Polls
Patrick Ruffini makes the case this morning at the conservative Townhall.com::Blog that Republican Rep. Ron Paul will place second at the Iowa GOP’s “straw poll” Aug. 11 in Ames. While Ruffini thinks Mitt Romney will win the largely symbolic vote that can still lend some momentum to a campaign, he says that Paul has motivated supporters, enough money to mount an effective effort and is pushing hard to do well.
Me, I don’t think Paul can afford to lose this one. Second is good, but it’s not enough to build momentum behind his movement in the way that Dean did when he handily won that online poll on MoveOn.org in 2003. That’s the type of event you need for a jumpstart, and unless Paul gets it, I fear interest in him is going to dwindle in the GOP.
HOWEVER, that doesn’t mean he can’t eventually make a viable 3rd party run. Never underestimate the power of the independent in an election year when people are fed up with politicians and politics as usual.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 19th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 19th, 2007 at 11:40 am
Rumor is that Romney has already bought a win. And Ron Paul will not run a 3rd party candidacy. So, if you support him or don’t yet know him, now is the time.
July 19th, 2007 at 10:56 pm
I’m sorry to be a party-pooper, but unless something drastic happens between now and the presidential election (as in a remarkable turnaround in Iraq) the Republicans don’t have a chance, not even a Rebuplican running on a “uniter not divider” theme.
I’m not a Democrat so I say that out of honesty and how I see it. Unfortunately, I think Bush has soured the country on the Republican party, at least until a Democrat has a go at it for at least one term, then, depending on how well the next president handles Bush’s inherited snafu’s you might have a Republican party resurgence, but I don’t see that happening for awhile.
I refuse to vote Dem. or Rep. I see them both as being corrupt but for different reasons. I am very liberal, I plan to vote for a Green candidate if he’s at all competent, otherwise I will not vote at all. My two cents anyway.
July 19th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
What about a viable, straight talking, 3rd party candidate?
July 20th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Hey Justin, even with all the uproar and dissatisfaction expressed by a majority of the people concerning their faith in our political system things will remain relatively the same, in that most will vote for a Republican or a Democrat despite the dismal approval ratings of both.
Both of these parties have enough fan-boys to sustain a two-party lock-up of the system for the foreseeable future.
Politicians have been switching their party afiliations like a major leaguer signs with a new team, I’m not sure what kind of 3rd party you’re talking about but if it is one of the already existing ones, the so-called Independents, the Liberatarians or the Green Party. None of these party have nearly enough appeal or a sense of legitimacy to take away from the Democrats or the Republicans.
The Dems and Reps have quite effectively “brainwashed” the country so-to-speak into believing that in the both of them they represent the entire spectrum of American political thought and
sentiment. They certainly do not, but nonetheless their lock on our political system is here to stay for the foreseeable future. It’s quite sad really because just as the world is not black and white neither is the political range of thought, however we have two choices come every election–Democrat or Republican. They are both corrupt, they are both for big business just different constituents.
So, IMHO I don’t see any third party being able to get enough real world traction to win the presidency in this country. Nonetheless, there’s a growing number of Americans that are hungry for something completely new and fresh and pragmatic, yet the political reality is that for a third party to win in this country something, or some events will first have to take place to make way for a sea change in or politically monopolized two-party system. Dems and Reps both have worked together very effectively to assure our system remains a two party system. One only has to look at how our so-called “political districts” are carved up and the all but predecided electoral college works. People in essence are “told” what they need, they don’t get the choice to actually choose their own futures. It’s a myth that is propagated by the two parties, that within two parties there lies all the ideas that “work” for America.
July 25th, 2007 at 11:59 am
While I agree that RP’s party affiliation increases the challenge of being elected, if he were to secure the GOP nomination (again, a longshot given the neo-con/liberal damage that’s been done), it would at the very least provide an opportunity for a real conservative message to be put forth. As Dr. Paul has recently said himself, it’s about the “idea” more so than himself and his small-government, anti-globalization, anti-empirical ideals are what the public must be made aware of. The globalists and their allies in the media have nearly convinced the entire populous that we must renownce our own national sovereignty to be safe. This is not true nor can be it called anything other than what it is…Globalist Propaganda. The Constitution is hanging by a thread and only Ron Paul can reverse the curse. Rather than giving up and whining about it, stand up and support his candidacy! Thanks.
July 25th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
If you oppose a specific candidate, I recommend the following:
Write a sympathetic article that sets the bar for success very high. Be positive about the campaign, while simultaneously saying that you’ll write it off if it doesn’t meet your incredibly high expectations.
July 25th, 2007 at 2:13 pm
If he doesn’t get the nom, I suggest we have a write-in campaign
July 25th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Think about this: Whoever wins in Ames, the pundits for the other top tier candidates will down play it because the others weren’t there. If Ron Paul wins, the whole thing will be dismissed as folly by the mainstream media. If Willard (Mitt) wins, his supporters will declare triumph, and some in the mainstream will hop on the “Willard train”, and make a huge fuss. If Dingel-Fritz, the Iowa candidate wins, then Limbaugh and Hannity will both swallow poison pills (or at least OD on oxycontin), and the world will be a better place. GO DINGEL-FRITZ 2008!
July 25th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
Romney has bought the votes in the Iowa straw poll by already spending $1 million in the state. If he does not win, he is toast. Once the primaries get to the south, Romney is toast anyway as the Christian right won’t elect a Mormon.
Ron Paul finishing 2nd the the Iowa straw poll and second or third in the Iowa Caucus would be a huge showing – especually if he could then sneak a win in the New Hampshire primary as the state loves him with its small government, pro-gun, Libertarian views. IF Paul pulls this off, and if Thompson enters the race, it becomes free-for-all and anything could happen.
July 26th, 2007 at 7:34 am
I am voting for Ron Paul! Ron Paul is a representative of traditional republican values. He is a constitutionalist and a patriot. I want someone in office who will take us back to a constitutional government, and Ron Paul is my man! Taking first in the Iowa Straw Poll would sure strike fear in the hearts of the Neocons:) Go Ron Paul!! Go Liberty!!!
July 26th, 2007 at 8:00 am
I don’t think Ron Paul has to WIN this straw poll, though that would be real nice.
You mentioned Dean winning the Moveon.org straw poll as his big booster, well Ron Paul has one literally HUNDREDS of online polls, some very large, and I don’t think we need to start doubting that he at least has a chance until he starts losing traction. So far, he has only gone up. It’s a slow start, I’ll grant, but he started at 0% in the polls and now he is consistently scoring 2 or 3% and even scored 6% in Texas. If he starts heading back to consistent 0s and 1s then I’ll start worrying.
Also, if he shows very poorly in this straw poll, then I’ll start to really worry but even if he gets 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, it will be a good indicator.
Placing even close to the front will be good exposure heading into a national debate etc. I still think Paul’s got a good chance. He quadrupled his 1st quarter in campaign funds, so I think we can all feel pretty confident that he’s growing in popularity. If he starts to slow significantly, then I’ll probably just go back to having no faith in the political process.
-Chad
July 26th, 2007 at 9:34 am
I hate to say this; but the ONLY places I have seen the Ron Paul in 2nd at Ames predictions are NON-Ron Paul websites/media. My guess is that it is a political strategy to deflate his campaign when it does NOT happen.
Why? Ron Paul has been running a National level campaign going to multiple states and NOT spending his time in Iowa. These predictions of 2nd place are NOT coming from his supporters or the campaign itself. Just something to keep in mind. The outcome in Iowa affects his campaign a LOT less than the “2nd tier” guys.
July 27th, 2007 at 1:14 am
I think that there will be a lot of people voting in the primaries for Ron Paul specifically that would not have voted in the primaries at all if they had not had him as a choice.
August 4th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
I re-registered as an independent in order to vote for Ron Paul in Arizona’s Republican Primary. We need Ron Paul’s ideas to save our country!!
August 6th, 2007 at 10:09 pm
With vote totals around 30,000 in the previous Iowa straw polls and the field split so many ways, one third of the votes or just 10,000 votes could win it.
Is it possible for Ron Paul to get 10,000 votes? Heck yes!!
He is willing to pay for 500 tickets for folks who show up. Libertarians usually get 2-3% of the real election. Republicans fed up with the Iaq war and BIG spenders are about 30-40% of the party and they only have Ron Paul to vote for! Between these two groups are some very ANGRY motivated voters. Ron Paul will do just fine. The down side is that if he does not get at least 10% of the vote (3,000) however, I would predict that people will still be supportive but his support will stop growing.
This is an important week for freedom in America.
But it is not the end of America if a 71 year old radical freedom fighter with a GREAT message (Freedom works!) is not charismatic enough to convince people by the sound of his voice that he has character enough to be voted for. That type of empty headed emotional gut feeling decision making is how at least 70% of America makes their vote choices. Consistency, being right and having a logical vision takes last place to charisma and style.
I remain hopeful and I wish that I could vote in Iowa.
Go Ron Paul!
August 11th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
even if ron paul doesnt receive the republican nomination-
we can all still write his name in on the ballot…..
be an american patriot!
and always vote your true conscience!