Huckabee Stealing Ron Paul’s Thunder?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Iowa, Religion, Ron Paul, Video
The answer that question is yes…and also no…
See, for all intents and purposes, Saturday was a disappoinment for Ron Paul because Mike Huckabee got the spot where he wanted to be. And not only that, it turns out that Huck was indeed the defacto winner since he spent so little money and placed so high. Again, a spot that Paul desperately needed even though his supporters say 5th place was great for him.
So why did Huck win? It wasn’t because he siphoned off Paul’s supporters. There just weren’t enough Iowans to vault Paul to the 2nd place spot.
Instead, look to the social conservatives. You know, the faithful voters who elected George Bush twice. If they didn’t show up in Iowa Huck wouldn’t have had a chance, but he’s been very vocal about his faith and how it would color his presidency. And voters apparently responded.
Yes, it’s going to be a tough road for the GOP next year if the religious right stays home, and Huckabee may be an attractive candidate just for the fact that he can bring them back to the well one more time.
First, here’s a video about his win, courtesy of CBS and TheNewsRoom.
And then here’s a story about his appeal with the religious right…
This is going to be one interesting race. I still think Huckabee is a second tier candidate, but he’s definitely the front runner for a VP nod.
One last thought about Ron Paul…it would do him well to leave the GOP race immediately and start a 3rd party campaign. He doesn’t have much time, and if he wants to have an effect on the debate, he’ll jump ship soon. He could be a Perot type figure, who focuses the debate back of fiscal discipline and limited government.
The only question then is would that be good for Repubs or Dems?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 15th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, Iowa, Religion, Ron Paul, Video. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 15th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Ron Paul has repeatedly stated that he will not run as a third party candidate this time around. If he can’t get the Republican nomination he’s out. This fact should make his supporters all the more determined to win the GOP nomination and it should calm the fears of party faithful who may think he’s not “Republican enough.”
August 15th, 2007 at 3:32 pm
[...] 15th, 2007 by mvdg Justin Gardner published an interesting post yesterday about Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Justin’s conclusion: This is going to be one [...]
August 15th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Huckster has a couple problems.
1 - He has no money ($250?)
2 - He has no support in NH…
Even when he appeared at the NH straw poll, Paul got 65% of the vote. Paul was not even there.
Also, in Iowa, doesn’t seem right that the only votes they gave Paul were what the campaign bought. In NH, not one of the votes for Paul’s was a bought ticket….people paid for their own. I find it hard to imagine that in Iowa there were not SOME people who paid for their own tickets???
I think Iowa was fixed.
August 15th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Huckster has a couple problems.
1 - He has no money ($250?)
2 - He has no support in NH…
Even when he appeared at the NH straw poll, Paul got 65% of the vote. Paul was not even there.
Also, in Iowa, doesn’t seem right that the only votes they gave Paul were what the campaign bought. In NH, not one of the votes for Paul’s was a bought ticket….people paid for their own. I find it hard to imagine that in Iowa there were not SOME people who paid for their own tickets???
I think Iowa was fixed.
PS - it’s impossible to read the CAPTCHA thing…whew…so bad
August 15th, 2007 at 3:39 pm
It would do Huckabee well to leave the race immediately since he didn’t get first place in this staged, MSM poll. I mean listen to yourself for a second, we’re talking about some meaningless straw poll consisting of a few thousand, mostly paid volunteers, and you’re already ready to call it. What’s the point of voting if the polls have already decided?
August 15th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
Great idea: Give bad advice to the people you don’t like in the hope they’ll follow it and end up losing. I gotta to hand it to ya: In the “bad advice” department, this one tops the charts.
“IF he wants to have an effect on the debate”???
Not one single GOP contender has had more “effect on the debate.” None of them come even close. Ron Paul is the only one with a message that’s intellectually distinguishable from the neo-com preemptive war cheerleader crowd.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Ron Paul is not really like Ross Perot. In order to even have a slim chance to win as a third party candidate, you need to be a billionaire. Ron Paul has said numerous times that he ran with the Republicans because that was the system in place. I think we all know the many problems with third party candidates. The dems and rebs are just too dominate. So, Ron Paul joined the republicans. And on most issues he pretty much is republican. He served the Republicans for more than 20 years as a Congressman. Its true that He may not be republican on all issues nor are his supporters, but I can tell you what they really are. They’re constitutionalist,s there freedom fighters, there americans citizens who are looking for change, real change and are not afraid, to rise, and fight for it. About 70% of americans are tired of the same old crap, and they want change.
The message will get spread and we will rise, we will fight and we will win.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Ron spent zippo time there, hardly a dime of his money and walked out with 10 percent. I think the real news story from there was the lack of enthusiasm for any Repubs, look at the attendance. Now we all know if he spent 1 million and two months there he would have competed with Romney. At any rate we know for sure the 2 percent polls are bogus. Meanwhile he gets plenty of cash to move ahead, the otheres have peaked.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
I disagree with you on your advice that RP should start a third party campaign. I’ve volunteered for Nader’s three presidential runs, and the most advice I heard from Democrats for Nader was, “He should join the Democrat party and run from inside”. THAT is exactly what Ron Paul is doing in the GOP. If he was a third party he would be far more ignored than he already is by main stream media, who is promoting NON-candidate Fred Thompson, who should start a third party campaign, he already has the hardest thing to get in a campaign, exposure.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
I’m getting sick of this virus that is going around about Ron Paul. I keep hearing from blogs that he is the only one with an intellectual insight, and that he is clearly the winner. However, I have never read any intellectual rebuttal that he has given. The only thing that he has stated differently than the other candidates is that we should of never went to war with Iraq. Thats it! There is no other substance behind him. Prove that he is the best. Do your research. You people sound like children who say “My daddy can beat your dady up”.
Then do your research on Mitt Romney, leaving behind your religious bigotry. You’ll find that he is sincere about his beliefs. And you’ll see that of what Jim Cramer had to say about Romney, that he is the “Best Business Man In North America”. Youtube it.
August 15th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Huckabee, along with Brownback got the Christian Right vote that wanted nothing to do with Romney.
While his 2nd place is great for some media buzz, on the “big screen” it won’t amount to much because a former southern baptist minister is not a big turn on for very many. Neither is a Morman for that matter.
Ron Paul is still on his way up, regardless of the establishment trying to keep him down in the straw poll and MSM.
PS. I hate your captcha arrangement. I end up giving up after the 2nd or 3rd try… and that audio bit is a joke, right? WTF?
August 15th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
You guys can keep trying to get Ron Paul to jump the GOP ship and do a third party run, but you forget something.
Been there, done that.
As bad as the media blackout has been, it’s been 1000% better than what Ron Paul faced as the Libertarian candidate in ‘88. if Ron Paul can win the GOP nomination (doubtful, but technically feasible) he can win the general election. If he gets the nomination of a 3rd party (all but certain depending on the party) he would then not go anywhere guring the general election,a nd the neo-cons would breathe a sigh of relief. so forget it, Ron’s not going anywhere.
August 15th, 2007 at 5:04 pm
Huckabee is running for Vice president - He could bring along the evangelicals for someone.
August 15th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
This ‘Donklephant’ review of the Ames straw poll is the most ridiculous blog comment I have read so far about Ron Paul’s performance in Ames. Americans are not going to elect a Creationist to the Presidency or Vice-Presidency in 2008. Period. The social conservative base of the Iowa Republicans is the most extreme Christian collection in the USA. A Mormon and Three Creationists (Huckabee, Tancredo & Brownbck) got 78% of the vote. I assure you, thats typical of the greatly shrunken Republican base in Utah and Iowa, but any state with an ocean by it is going to reject those religious irrationalists.
For genuine analysis check out my review of the Iowa Straw Poll,
http://www.cannabisculture.com/articles/5046.html
August 15th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
Huckabee isn’t going anywhere either. I have a strong hunch that his financial position probably improved pretty dramatically after he took second place.
August 15th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
The RNC from Iowa is the same people that excluded Paul from the tax conference.. There was massive voting irregularities. I don’t know what happened but even the Iowa RNC had to pull the plug on the machines and hand count 1200 ballots.. There answer heck it’s a straw poll…
You have to remember this is still the Neo-con Republocrats. The RNC spent millions to get Paul ousted in his district and failed.. You can do this crap in Iowa. Paul should not have even run in the poll and given the 35 bucks to the GOP there. He had more people there he should have just had his own straw pol.. Good plan but Mitt spent millions on busing Blue Hairs.. Paul received nine times the votes that the national pollsters predicted. That must really bug them that a guy runs on principle instead of polls….Bain has more ghost than the Jefferson’s bedroom….. Lets see what happens..
August 15th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Where does Huckabee stand on the Federal Reserve?
Ron Paul Is Right – Sign and promote the Abolish the Federal Reserve Petition
Today in August 2007, the world financial systems and investment markets, real estate and the availability of credit are all under direct assault due to past actions of the Federal Reserve in the United States.
Read and sign the Ron Paul Is Right – Abolish the Federal Reserve Petition at http://www.petitiononline.com/fed/petition.html
Please link to the petition and forward this message to your friends and help the general public wake up during the current financial panic conditions to the problems we face from the Federal Reserve and Ron Paul’s solution.
August 15th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Politics is perception and the fact that Giuliani and McCain avoided a showdown with Romney in the Iowa Straw Vote indicated their lack of strength in organization. Look for Romney to increase his attacks on Giuliani who is perceived to be the national frontrunner. McCain’s campaign is in shambles. Thompson remains the wild card with his stealth campaign. Now the Iraq war situation appears to be stabilizing with Al Queda attacks limited to the outlying areas, the big issue will be illegal immigration.
August 15th, 2007 at 6:58 pm
The New Hampshire “straw poll” means a lot to the Paul supporters. However if you read this bit from a New Hampshire activist it doesn’t take much to realize how much it means in the larger scheme of things.
I think the part that I’ve put in bold should explain fairly well just how much that poll had to do with the primaries or the general election.
August 15th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
I have to say, this is the most laughable statement of the day, and I read A LOT of material.
“Instead, look to the social conservatives. You know, the faithful voters who elected George Bush twice.”
Social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, martians… put Bush in the White House? How about the fact that Bush was the only choice they had. Are you suggesting that fiscal conservatives voted for the alternative, a coastal Liberal like John Kerry and it was the social conservatives who rode in to save the day? Good lord man, this site needs better writers than sophomores from Vassar college.
August 15th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Ron Paul is one of the few positive things the Republican party has going for it. He brings energy, new voters, and a return of conservative principles to the GOP. He still can’t win, but he can only help the party by being in it, and would hurt it to leave.
August 15th, 2007 at 8:16 pm
Ridiculous advice.
Dr. Paul has a very powerful message and is just getting started. Quit the race now after Romney who won bought 10,000 tickes in Iowa and could only find 4000 people who would even take them for free and vote for him (source: Wall Street Journel).
Quit the race now??
HA HA HA
August 15th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
You’re an ass, Gardner.
You’re anti-Ron Paul bias has been plain since you’ve been writing. Keep it up. At this rate, you’ll be working for the New York Times or Fox News in no time.
August 15th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
From California:
Mike who?
Go Ron Paul !!!
August 15th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
Ron Paul does not need to quit his race for the Republican nomination now. He can stay in through the primaries, and if he loses the GOP race, the Libertarian Party will still give him the nomination.
The Libertarian Party is qualified for the ballot in 26 states, and carrying on petition drives in a half dozen more. In some of the other states it will be easy to qualify. So Ron Paul can continue providing an alternative for constitutionalists and antiwar conservatives in the Republican primaries, and you might still find him on your November 2008 ballot.
August 15th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
I’ve known Mike Huckabee professionally for many years. He’s a good stump speaker, funny (does a dead-on Clinton impersonation) and is sincere in his concern about the very real problems that obesity is causing states as they relate to the pressure it puts on health care costs.
That said, Ron Paul is going to be in this race long after Huckabee pulls out because Paul appeals to the better libertarian instincts of the Republican Party. Huckabee, at his core, is just another big government-as-firm-father-figure Republican, and the party is full of those.
Paul’s call for personal responsibility and drawing in the excesses of the federal government resounds across the nation much better than Huckabee’s call for individual Americans to go on a diet.
August 15th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
Justin,
Thanks for your advice to Ron Paul to drop out of the race.
I have forwarded your e-mail to Dr. Paul. However, it may take him a while to respond because he’s busy raising $50,000+/day and speaking before crowds of thousands.
Justin is smart!
August 15th, 2007 at 9:35 pm
The MSM has already attempted to block Ron Paul from the debates, so they REALLY would attempt to marginalize him if he went third party. Meanwhile, his financial support rises exponentially, even when the MSM won’t talk about him. Vive la rEVOLution!!!!
August 15th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
[...] the rest here, complete with some images and facts on this story. Mike Huckabee took Ron Pauls second place [...]
August 15th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
NH - the Iowa Straw Poll is not fixed - it has nothing to do with ticket sales or donations. When you go into vote there is nothing to identify you to a particular campaign. Everybody got the same ticket and the same ballot. You are not obligated to vote for the candidate who bought your ticket. There were a number of people there who did pay their own way in, and there were a few who came in under Romney not intending on voting for him.
During his speech I couldn’t find much to disagree with him on, but then again he didn’t really speak on Iraq. Also since I was an eyewitness in Ames I can also say that much of his support that came was from out-of-state (a lot of out-of-state plates with Ron Paul stickers) and unfortunately can not vote. You see they were not concerned about what candidate you came in support of, but they did care if you were an Iowa resident, so they were checking IDs.
I think this race is just beginning and Huckabee will see a bump. McCain is trending down in the polls, and Fred Thompson doesn’t have that much of a window before people get tired of him not declaring.
August 16th, 2007 at 12:05 am
According to Justin (if I am not deleted again first)
Social conservatives voted GWBush in 04, so I have to ask, were the fiscal conservatives, the moderates, and libertarians voting for Kerry?
If social conservatives didn’t show up in Iowa, then Giuliani would have tied with Romney.
August 16th, 2007 at 1:09 am
The ONLY Candidate who has a passionate grassroots movement of any substance is still Ron Paul.
That’s what sets him apart from any other contender. The GOP needs someone who will pump some life back into it.
Most Republicans I talk to sound completely discouraged, and overall deflated.
I just tell them go with the man with the message. Ron Paul.
With what little attention the established press has given him his popularity has spread like wildfire.
He also stands for a change in policy, something I think is essential to make any Republican candidate viable for the White House in ‘08 with 70+ percent of people wanting something different from what we’re presently doing in Iraq.
The people want something different. I think we’ve all had enough of this. And Ron Paul is just a drastic enough departure from the current administration to win a popular vote for the GOP this coming election.
D.
August 16th, 2007 at 3:05 am
Ron isn’t gonna leave the party and he shouldn’t, he’s gonna take the party back from the neoconservatives.
August 16th, 2007 at 4:34 am
“it turns out that Huck was indeed the defacto winner since he spent so little money and placed so high.”
…
“Instead, look to the social conservatives. You know, the faithful voters who elected George Bush twice. If they didn’t show up in Iowa Huck wouldn’t have had a chance, but he’s been very vocal about his faith and how it would color his presidency. And voters apparently responded.”
Actually, you should look to the flat tax people - they spent an additional $150,000 on him there, bought almost 2,000 tickets and bussed in a few thousand people in their efforts to boost his numbers.
here’s my source:
http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=785
August 16th, 2007 at 7:40 am
Really?
Berkley researchers disagree: http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47293
You can discredit Paul’s performance all you want, but cold, hard statistics disagree.
August 16th, 2007 at 7:41 am
Really?
Berkley researchers disagree: http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47293
You can discredit Dr. Paul’s performance all you want, but cold, hard statistics disagree.
August 16th, 2007 at 8:19 am
Who’s Ron Paul?
August 16th, 2007 at 10:10 am
Ron placed perfectly in Iowa. If he’d placed any higher that might have taken the wind out of huck and b-back’s sails, then reducing the number of pro-war candidates in the field. We need as many war-mongers as possible to go into the primaries to DILUTE the war-mongers vote. So yeah for a 5th. place for Ron Paul. He’s proven he’s got real support on the street. MSM may not like that his supporters are more passionate than any other candidate in history - I wonder why? They’re just going to have to get use to that! Don’t know Ron Paul? Start at http://www.IHateRonPaul.com - “…they hate us for our FREEDOMS!”
August 16th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Billy, if you have never heard “intellectual rebuttal” from Ron Paul then you must be an ostrich. It’s out there in droves on youtube and Lew Rockwell. Go check it out, if you can handle the truth.
The Revolution will not be televised!
August 16th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
If you think Huckabee really won 2nd place at the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, you have serious issues in dealing with reality. That whole thing was rigged by Romney, and here are the facts:
1. 14,000 voted, but 26,000 tickets were purchased. Let’s assume that the voting number is accurate. That means 12,000 x 35 = $420,000 into the Iowa GOP for unused tickets. Romney reportedly spent $2.5 million to win this thing. When his victory was announced, you could hear a pin drop.
2. Huckabee has NO support anywhere. When the guy speaks, 30-50 people show up. He can’t even manage to raise $1 million.
3. The Ron Paul supporters were deafening, they were everywhere at that Straw Poll.
4. There was a “malfunction” of the voting machines, which were run by people employed by Romney’s campaign.
Huckabee is an embarrassment to the GOP, to Arkansas, and to the South. I hope he withdraws very soon and goes back to playing bass guitar.
Ron Paul is the only hope this country has of evading even more socialism. If you want to keep the rich from creating a solid oligarchy, vote Ron Paul.
August 16th, 2007 at 2:36 pm
[...] Gardner published an interesting post yesterday about Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. Justin’s conclusion: This is going to be one [...]
August 16th, 2007 at 10:53 pm
This is the HUGE ASS portion of the site, right?
Donkelephant has been trying every angle to whittle away at Ron Paul, to no avail. We see through you.
August 17th, 2007 at 8:37 am
Ron Paul just came in third place in the Illinois straw poll — nipping the heels of Fred Thompson. He is surging.
August 17th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Ron Paul leave the GOP? He’s the only conservative running! The other idiots should all leave the GOP and go form their own party. Call it the PQP. (Pro-Quagmire Party.)
Republicans need to decide whether they want to be neocons or real conservatives…
August 17th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Ron Paul leave the GOP? He’s the only conservative running! The other idiots should all leave the GOP and go form their own party. Call it the PQP. (Pro-Quagmire Party.)
Republicans need to decide whether they want to be neocons or real conservatives….