Iraq Violence Down. Chance For Failure Still Sky High.
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Iraq, Military, The War On Terrorism, WarApparently the violence is at its lowest since early 2006. That’s great news.
So why is the chance for success still at an all time low?
BAGHDAD, Nov. 18 — The American military said Sunday that the weekly number of attacks in Iraq had fallen to the lowest level since just before the February 2006 bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra, an event commonly used as a benchmark for the country’s worst spasm of bloodletting after the American invasion nearly five years ago.Data released at a news conference in Baghdad showed that attacks had declined to the lowest level since January 2006. It is the third week in a row that attacks have been at this reduced level.
The statistics on attack trends have long been a standard measure that the American military has used to assess violence in Iraq. Because the data have been gathered for years and are deemed generally reliable they allow analysts to identify trends.
Note the first paragraph there. One key thing got bombed and it all went bad. Not very heartening. And while that may not be the Iraq of today, something tells me it isn’t too far removed from that reality.
Folks, success in Iraq is not violence going down. This is yet another framing of the debate by the administration and right wingers that is just plain false. Is it good news? Yes. People NOT getting killed is GREAT news. But it is NOT success.
We’ll measure success when the Iraqi government gets their act together and figures out a way to build a coalition. Because without that, all of this progress can be undone by ONE bomb.
So then, how’s the Iraqi government doing on their end?
CAMP LIBERTY, Iraq – Senior military commanders here now portray the intransigence of Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government as the key threat facing the U.S. effort in Iraq, rather than al-Qaida terrorists, Sunni insurgents or Iranian-backed militias.
Enough said.
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November 19th, 2007 at 1:04 pm
PHEW!! That was close. Thank God that all of this crackdown on violence has not actually been successful. I thought imperialist AmeriKa and their neo-con Iraqi collaborators might actually win this one in the end. It looks like there is still time for the minutemen to defeat the redcoats after all.
RON PAUL 2008!!!
November 19th, 2007 at 6:59 pm
“Thank God that all of this crackdown on violence has not actually been successful.”
I see you haven’t taken the sage advice to learn how to read Jimmy. If you would have read Justin’s remarks “Apparently the violence is at its lowest since early 2006. That’s great news.” Justin’s remarks indicate that he agrees that violence is down in Iraq. He then remarks “Folks, success in Iraq is not violence going down.” So there you have it Jimmy, Justin agrees that the violence has receded yet he doesn’t believe that the temporary reduction in violence is the measure of full, meaningful success. And he would be right.
This “police action,” and sadly that is what this is, a “police action” not a declared war. Among other notable police actions–Americans might think of that most fantastically raucous and fun police action ever, the Vietnam war. If we were, god forbid to buy ourselves a f’king clue we might learn from our past mistakes that perhaps retracted “police actions” aren’t really wars, but in fact, America appointing itself as the police officer of the world.
Now why we’d think we have that authority is beyond me, I know wiping out an entire civilization of native Americans infers a certain amount of respect among fellow murders but really! Who would God elect to “police the world?” I believe God is on our side, in fact, if he weren’t Lockheed Skunk Works would have to lay off some people. Even God hasn’t that in him, no, not something so apocalyptic as unemployed weapons manufacturers. But he can divinely ordain the deaths of hundreds of thousands for, as Gods translator on earth with put it “We needs to bring Freedumb and Democracy to them poor Iraqis.”
Ah yes! Freedom. How bitter sweet that experience must be from inside a bodybag.
November 19th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
Iraq’s government has weight, takes up Green-Zone space and costs money, so we know it exists. As far as actually doing anything helpful toward making the country safe and self-sustaining, it’s a complete waste.
But that’s not the point. The point is that heading into an election year where things don’t look good for them, Republicans have something that looks like progress to point to, no matter how transitory it’s likely to be.
November 19th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
“But that’s not the point. The point is that heading into an election year where things don’t look good for them, Republicans have something that looks like progress to point to, no matter how transitory it’s likely to be.”
Said like a true mindless lock stepping Democrat that believes everything he hears. S.W. Anderson, the knightly
Democrats are more like a beached whale than a knight on horseback. Yes, they win the presidency but the stench of their complicity in bank rolling, supporting and abetting this radical White House in their crimes will rear its ugly head. When a party purposely puts its own country’s interest on the chopping block just to win power, it’s time for a third and forth party in this country. I consider myself to be a true liberal, not some back scratcher, armchair ass-kisser Democratic that sits by idly while a Republican administration dismantles the very essence of our country. Baw sheep! baw!
November 19th, 2007 at 7:29 pm
Justin: We’ll measure success when the Iraqi government gets their act together and figures out a way to build a coalition.
Actually that’s just when we’ll begin to measure success. Can a coalition government stay together, and stay honest, without a U.S. safety net, or U.S. eyes looking over their shoulders? If al Qaeda or pro-Iranian Shiite fighters decide to give it one more try in Iraq after we’ve gone, can the Iraqi army and police fight them and win without our direct assistance?
The thing is though, these other criteria for our success can’t really be measured until after we have left Iraq. While we’re still there we can’t ensure any of this, only work to make it more likely. But it seems to me we’re getting to a point of diminishing returns in that regard.
November 19th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
“Actually that’s just when we’ll begin to measure success. Can a coalition government stay together, and stay honest, without a U.S. safety net, or U.S. eyes looking over their shoulders? If al Qaeda or pro-Iranian Shiite fighters decide to give it one more try in Iraq after we’ve gone, can the Iraqi army and police fight them and win without our direct assistance?”
Good points Joshua, why didn’t the government listen to the foreign intelligence on Iraq? This sort of scenario was visited, re-visted, visited again and then again. All of our assessments had spelled this out. It’s laughable how
people can just toss aside the utter criminal behavior of this administration and skip over the most important factor of our failure in that country. We took the lid off and now you are going to try convince me that we should stay for 10, 20, 30, 60? years in Iraq?
The infighting will remain no matter if we are present or we leave, period! We can and probably will stay in Iraq for another 8 to 10 years and as soon as we leave the power vacuum will implode, guaranteed! The only question left is how many Americans are going to have to give their lives and how many more trillions of U.S. dollars are going to be spent.
I don’t suppose you’ve noticed the shape the American economy is in Joshua? Who’s paying for this war anyway? Is it Bush and friends? or are they the direct beneficiaries? Meanwhile, America’s education, health care and entitlement programs hang on the precipice.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:49 am
No, it may even be worse.
The timetable will be set for withdrawal. The troops will come home before Christmas 08. Everyone will have a fantastic Thanksgiving.
Except in Iraq…
And it will not matter one jot who leads the Administration in US.
Except in Iraq…
And there is then the little matter of Iran…
November 25th, 2007 at 10:19 am
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