How Rudy Could Best Romney

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Democrats, Dodd, Edwards, Fred Thompson, Giuliani, Hillary, Huckabee, Iowa, Money, Republicans, Romney, Ron Paul

From the Politico daily newsletter:

Fractured results in the initial primaries and caucuses disrupt Mitt Romney’s plan to rack up a series of convincing wins ahead of the big states where Giuliani expects to run well. It’s harder to build a head of steam when you’re fighting gnats, and any success the also-rans achieve will dilute Rudy weakness in the smaller, earlier states.

Make sense. The field is incredibly crowded, and with Huck and Ron Paul coming on strong, you’re definitely looking at a fractured vote. If Romney has any chance of winning solidly in any of these early states, people are going to have to drop out. And that looks increasingly unlikely with such an unpredictable electorate.

Could the same be true for Hillary, who’s polling way ahead in a lot of primary states? Or is it simply a three way race, as it was in 2004 with Kerry, Dean and Edwards?

We shall see…


This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 20th, 2007 and is filed under Barack, Democrats, Dodd, Edwards, Fred Thompson, Giuliani, Hillary, Huckabee, Iowa, Money, Republicans, Romney, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “How Rudy Could Best Romney”

  1. bgodley Says:

    The Republican party is definitely fracturing.

    The party is going to experience a rude awakening unlike any other in next year’s general election unless we change our hawkish views. Historically war is not just a polictical issue it is a deal beaker. Period. End of Story. This is completely aside from all else that ails our party. Mitt, Guiliani, it isn’t going to matter. The problem here is that we still feel emboldened because we continue to poll from this ever so smaller pond. We seem to have some fanatcial death grip on the big government, big guns ideology that snuck up and overtook the party. It is going to take a pretty large crowbar to unstick this mess.

    The only Republican I see that can win next year’s general is Ron Paul. He needs to shake off this small group of yapping dogs that want to identify him as a fringe nut job. True, his candidacy attracts a small, colorful and very vocal nutty following but again they are in the minority. This is just an unfortunate by product of having a message that resonates.

    There is a very small group of his naysayers that would like nothing better than to make anyone, especially mainstream Republicans, feel that if they somehow agreed with Paul’s views they would be running the risk of being indoctrinated into some type of banana party. For the sake of our country and my kids I choose to think for myself. Don’t be fooled, this core group sitting with vehemence for anyone that questions their views is VERY small. It is only the simple minded that repeat their statements that make it seem large.

    I have become enamored with Ron Paul not just as a politician but also as a man. It takes a man with a lot of fortitude to be the sole voice against the tide. He was up late researching and writing legislation while the good old boys were at the barbeque laughing it up at his expense. I can just imagine what a lonely and often heartbreaking endeavor that must have been.

    Well, by some grace of god he has broken through, and a message that he in essence has been repeating his whole career, is gaining a lot of traction.

    I find that most Paul supporters are intelligent concerned Americans. I may not agree on all their views, some being very liberal, but I highly respect them and would rather be sitting in a fox hole with them any day than listening to a group of whiners who prefer to take pot shots from the sidelines.

    So maybe instead of heckling the next Paul supporter standing on the corner with his home made marker sign you shoud buy them a cup of coffee and thank them for giving a *@!*.

  2. bbartlog Says:

    This scenario would make a lot more sense if Giuliani were polling 40-50% instead of 25-30% nationwide. Even if the Iowa and NH primaries are a fractured mess, someone (presumably Romney) will get at least a little mileage out of their wins – and Giuliani isn’t sitting so pretty (like, say, Clinton) that he can win with his current standings. He needs some gains. Maybe his campaign is planning to manage that via an ad blitz, but from where I’m sitting his strategy makes no sense. Finishing in third place or worse in both Iowa and NH seems like a crippling outcome.

  3. Brad Says:

    Yes, Support Sanity.

    Do not succumb to the guilt by association with vocal undesirables argument.

    Ron Paul represents a uniting message; the message is more important than the man.

    He is resonating with a vast amount of people. His stands have substance and are based upon logic and reason. He is the only candidate willing to answer the tough questions.

    Help the cause, Vote Ron Paul.

  4. bob in fla Says:

    Justin, you are a troublemaker. why would anyone want to encourage Rudy to win ? Anyone in their right mind, that is?

    As I see it, the Republican Primary race is wide open at this point. As far as anyone dropping out, look to Fred Thompson. A couple blogs earlier today say he has terminal cancer – that is, it is a form that cannot be cured. If this is true, once the word gets out, he is finished. Everyone else who makes a difference still has a shot.

    For the Dems, it appears to be a 2 person race to me, unless Edwards drops out early . That isn’t likely to happen. Hillary just does not seem so inevitable any more. Of course, if Obama blows it, that could rapidly change. Too bad, since Edwards would be my choice today.

    But, we are a long way from hearing the fat lady sing.

  5. Jeremy Says:

    test, ignore this.

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