Ron Paul & Huckabee Keep Gaining
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Huckabee, Ron PaulSpecifically, if Huckabee somehow pulls off a win in Iowa, it might actually steamroll him towards victory in a lot of other states. Same with Ron Paul, although I think Iowa is out for him. His supporters should focus on pulling off an upset in New Hampshire.
Because then take South Carolina. The latest Rasmussen poll shows that Huck has gained 9 points to now come in at 12%. Ron Paul is close with a gain of 6 points and nearing double digits for 8%.
In fact, let’s focus on Ron Paul for a moment…
Ron Paul has decisively broken from the 1 percent/margin of error ghetto into, at the very least, spoiler status. RealClearPolitics still doesn’t include Paul in all of the averages, but 4.5 percent in Iowa, 6.8 percent in New Hampshire, and 7.3 percent in Nevada.
Over 7% in Nevada is big, because if he can make some magic happen in New Hampshire, it could have the same effect that Huck’s win had in Iowa.
So could it be a contest between Huck and Paul? Probably not, but this is the most uncertain GOP field in nearly 3 decades. Sure, there was a little excitement in ‘88, but you had an VP running and he quickly tied it up after a scare from Pat Robertson.
But then you have to think about how many other candidates there are in this field. Fred Thompson, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney. Support doesn’t seem to be solidifying around any one candidate, although Romney’s support has gone up in South Carolina, while Fred Thompson’s increasingly puzzling campaign keeps rolling along.
And just in case you think these bigger dogs will stomp out the smaller dogs, think again…
In South Carolina, as in other states, the race remains quite fluid. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Romney’s supporters say they might change their mind before voting. For the other candidates, 47% to 57% of their supporters say the same thing.
However, note to Ron Paul…
Ron Paul is viewed favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 50%.
Don’t waste your supporters passion by continuing this GOP charade. You don’t belong in the Republican party and everybody knows it.
Maybe you’ll just have to find out the hard way.
This entry was posted on Monday, November 26th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Huckabee, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 26th, 2007 at 11:14 am
35 percent actually showing up to the polls wins.
Paul will not be elected by a constituency that is a majority of the country, but in our system that doesn’t matter, its all about who shows up and in what proportions.
November 26th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
I had a large discussion about the GOP candidates and I think the general consensus was that they were unhappy with all the “front-runner” candidates, and that they had to look more at the “smaller” candidates to see what they were all about.
Even my father, a long time GOP member and activist (as a lawyer he is able to help with things) was very uncertain who he was going to vote for.
I think that the Republican’s want their party back from the neo-conservatives in the White House, and Ron Paul could be the person to help them do it.
November 26th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
“Ron Paul doesn’t belong in the Republican Party”
Right. What we need is a big-governemnt, pro-abortion, pro-gay rights gun grabber from the Northeast, either New York or Mass. This would really be a boost to the Republican Party. Especially if we could find a guy like this who is fond of cross-dressing. Thats a real ‘big-tent’ issue these days. Even better would be a fella who has stated in the debates that our military should be trained in nation-building. That way, when we invade Iran, we can do a better job than we have done in Iraq, which wasn’t a mistake because the surge is really convincing the Iraqis that the US didn’t invade their country, but rather ‘liberated’ their country.
So there you have it….my answer to the problem of the Republican Party.
November 26th, 2007 at 4:59 pm
Ron Paul, according to the issues, should win the Iowa Republican caucus.
Strategic Vision poll of Iowa Republicans in October 2007:
“Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months?”
Yes 54%
No 38%
Undecided 8%
http://cmondisplay.com/2007/10/21/majority-of-iowa-republican-caucus-goers-favor-iraq-withdrawal-within-6-months/
Ron Paul is the only option for the 54% of Iowa Republicans who want an end to to the war in Iraq. If only half of them vote their interests, that is 27% for Ron Paul, easily enough for a second place finish. Also, considering the fact that telephone polls have consistently understated Ron Paul’s support (by not including new voters, independents, and voters who did not vote in the past two election cycles), one should add 5% or 10% to account for the unrepresentative nature of these polls, which gives him 32% to 37%, enough for a victory.
The challenge, then, is for Ron Paul to reach Iowa voters with his message. His campaign will have the most cash on hand and has the strongest grassroots support to accomplish this.
November 26th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Don’t waste your time telling Ron Paul supporters not to waste their passion.
If not for Ron Paul, I’m staying home with the 40% of America that doesn’t vote, probably 60% this year due to the same old crap besides Dr. Paul.
Dr. Paul already won, the message is out and the movement will continue. Winning isn’t important, having the message out there when the foolishness of American greed-economy and imperialism comes home to roost.
Thanks for caring though.
November 26th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
Justin,
Good analysis overall, but you are WRONG at the end — it’s the Neocons and the big-government, nanny-state “Compassionate Conservatives” (compassionate towards statism?) who do not belong in the GOP.
It grows tiring and outright insane to keep hearing how the ideas and principles that made this country great are “outside the mainstream”, “kooky”, “fringe”, or “outdated”. Those who believe this (I’m not saying, Justin, that that is you) bear the responsibility of telling the rest of us just exactly in what year did human nature change, and just exactly when liberty became “outdated”. We would really like to know!
November 26th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Excellent article, Justin. I am puzzled by the zinger at the end though.
Arguably you could have said the same thing about many other winning candidates and their party in the past. It was said of Reagan certainly. If the party platforms were not somewhat fluid then they would be replaced and go the way of the Whigs, the Know-Nothings, and the Free Soil Party.
I believe that Paul’s candid vision and leadership is exactly what the Republican party needs right now. I’m a lifetime, vote-every-election Republican. This time around Paul has my vote. Paul has the ability to attract voters from both within and without the party. Every candidate that hopes to actually win it all must do the same.
As for the already-in-the-party, I truly believe that the commitment of rank and file Republicans to ideals that are anathema to Paul are wildly overstated by outlets like FOXNews [that supposedly dictate "mainstream Republicanism"]. Certainly Paul has won more than his fair share of straw polls consisting of hard-core Republican leadership across the nation.
November 26th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
“Don’t waste your supporters passion by continuing this GOP charade.” Yawn. The current trend has Ron Paul winning NH, AZ, and finishing in the top 3 of all the other early primary states. The GOP is already collapsing and ready to be redefined - the power of Ron Paul’s message easily exceeds the threshold needed to be it’s greatest influence for years to come.
Funny - 99% of the political pundits have been proven 100% wrong about the validity of Ron Paul’s campaign from the beginning. Now that he’s viable, broken fund raising records, is close to double-digits in national polls and has the likes of Zogby attesting to his ability to win in NH, the same pundits STILL think they understand things. :-)
November 26th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
It doesn’t matter that the author thinks he is so in touch with the Republican base, that he can define the party. What really matters is what percentage of Paul supporters will make it to the polls. Even if one assumes that the polls are not biased against Paul (wich they are), if Paul’s supporters are 4 times as energetic and enthusiastic, then he can beat candidates with 4 times his polling numbers.
It is time for Paul supporters to organize poll spamming operations. Keep track of how to contact known Paul supporters. Make sure that you and your friends are registered properly to vote. Organize voting parties, and carpool to the precinct polling places. It is YOUR responsibilty to make sure that every single person who supports Paul is represented come voting day. This is what the grassroots effort is for. Now it is time to win.
Win!…Win!… Vote Ron Paul.
November 26th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
When all this is over we get the pleasure of listening to the media heads babble about how they knew what was happening all along, and where they clearly didn’t it wasn’t their fault because somebody fed them bad information. Just like they always have. Anyone who listens to the MSM’s fruitbats and claims to be informed is a joke to any Paul supporter.
November 26th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
I have voted a straight Republican in every national election since the early 1980s. Ron Paul is the BEST candidate of all of the parties.
Ron Paul has my vote.
Go Ron Paul!
November 26th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Obviously from the polls and the 2006 elections, people do not see the Republican Party as the party for America. So maybe just because Ron Paul may not fit your Republican Party, it does not necessarily mean that he has no chance.
Americans want out of the war. Americans want to be taxed less. Ron Paul is the only one to deliver. Ron Paul is for America.
Plus if you go based on the definition of republican, I have a hard time seeing Ron Paul as not being a republican. Sure he may be a more libertarian republican, but he’s more republican than all the other GOP candidates.
November 26th, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Hey
Let somebody else hold thier nose for once.
November 26th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
“Ron Paul doesn’t belong in the Republican Party”
Even though he has been elected to congress as a republican 10 times.
You are logic.
November 26th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
As you say: “Don’t waste your supporters passion by continuing this GOP charade. You don’t belong in the Republican party and everybody knows it.”
I think many would now argue that the Republican Party is all but dead, only held together by a myriad of big-statist, pro-establishment positions and the ring of days gone by. The Party has already split into two camps–the Neocon/Liberal-Statist Party, and the Constitutional/Libertarian/Anti-war Party. The first party is old, tired, based on old money, led by beltway insiders, and afraid to transition to the modern era. The emerging Constitutional/Libertarian/Anti-war Party is looking for change, more freedom, better economic policies, and new ways of interacting in the 21st century.
So, actually, no “real Republicans” have a home anymore. They’ll either stay home, or sell their soul to one of the two splinter parties. And as the old icons in the first die out, there won’t be much left of that one, either. What will hold it together–Globelust? Empire building? Anything else?
My bet for the future is on the second, emerging party.
November 26th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
Ron Paul doesn’t “belong in the Republican party and everybody knows it.” I am afraid you are right there. He’s kind of like a golden ring in that pig’s snout. Ron Paul is the only thing that keeps me voting for that party at all, simply because I’m in his district.
November 26th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Well, I thought this was a fairly even-handed article… until I got to the very end:
“Don’t waste your supporters passion by continuing this GOP charade. You don’t belong in the Republican party and everybody knows it.
Maybe you’ll just have to find out the hard way.”
This is what the Republican party used to be, before the neocons and religious right took it hostage.
And, if the GOP was smart, they would quit trying to stifle Paul’s campaign. Ron Paul has amassed a coalition of disenfranchized small government conservatives, anti-war liberals fed up with Democratic footdragging, libertarians at large who like the message of laisse-faire government, and constitutionalists who like the idea of actually following our founding document.
Does the GOP want to win in 2008 or what?
November 26th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Curiously why should the one and only Republican with traditional Republican values not be in the Republican party particularly when most of the other candidates running are Global Welfarist fringe idea candidates who have wondered away from being Republicans?
Ron Paul is going to win this whole thing. The media offensive against him ensures me of it everyday.
http://www.ronpaul2008.com
November 26th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
I’ve gotta say out of all the Republican candidates Ron Paul is the only voice of reason. Its odd that seven years ago George Bush ran on a more humble non interventionist foreign policy and talked about staying away from nation building. I can hear some say “but that was before 9/11″ “9/11 changed everything.” In a sense yeah it did change a lot. What the right changes should of been is looking at what the CIA has talked about for years, blow back. We should of looked at our foreign policy a bit closer before we sent our military in the hostile quagmire of Iraq.
With every reason of going into Iraq turning out to be false and fabricated we are now paying the cost of our mistake. Thousands of dead service men and woman, thousands of injured, hundreds of thousands innocent Iraqi’s dead and wounded. How can we fix this mistake? Not by talking tough on other nations that pose NO THREAT to OUR national security. The only way to fix it is to change the course, Vietnam is a perfect example.
Its sad that the supposed “front runners” like Guiliani and Romney snicker at Ron Paul on live TV during a debate when he gives answers to questions that are from a different view point of the rest of the candidates on the stage. An honorable person would listen, not snicker, a leader would exchange thoughts and ideas with those around them and not just “stick to party lines”.
I am afraid that most will realize his integrity and adherence to the Rule of Law in our land much too late. We are forgetting that our representatives are supposed to represent us and listen to us, the people, that is how our government works. Ron Paul brings together all sorts of people, that is the type of leader we need.
November 26th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Thanks for the article on ” the one who shall not be named.” Even though you are wrong and prejudiced there is some truth in your headline.
November 26th, 2007 at 8:13 pm
50% are either indifferent or favorable to Ron Paul!?
That’s plenty!
Go Ron Paul!
November 26th, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Its amazing the trend for Ron Paul. I have personally spoken to more than a dozen people who asked what does he stand for… after I explained the issues - they all said they would vote for him too…
Iowa is not likely, but New Hampshire - they are just independent enough… I think Ron Paul shocks the world finishing first!
His views will make him popular in SC once the momentum of NH continues!
November 26th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
On the contrary… Iowa is one of the easiest states to win. In 2000, the turnout to the Republican caucus was 6.8%… only 85,000 people. If the turnout is similar this time, Ron Paul will need a mere 25,000 votes to win the state.
November 26th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
It is true that Ron Paul has far too much class for the GOP of today.
November 26th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
Let’s see, 2/3 of U.S. citizens want to see a withdrawal of troops. There isn’t a single republican candidate that has a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Hillary Clinton with the exception of Dr. Paul.
There is a reason Ron Paul attracts people from the left, right, and center. He’s a big fan of the constitution, Bill of Rights, and honest money…a radical concept by today’s standards.
November 26th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Ron Paul doesn’t belong in the Republican Party? Funny man. I was just listening to a George Bush campaign speech from the last election, and guess what? He sounded an AWFUL lot like Ron Paul. Humble foreign policy. No nation-building. Less government. Jeez, are peoples’ memories so short they can’t remember that? Look it up. Here’s the thing: The ENTIRE rest of the FIELD doesn’t belong in the Republican party, which from long tradition is the party of small government and noninterventionist foreign policy. To say that Paul doesn’t belong in the Republican party is to show your ignorance. The rest of the field sound just like the Democrats. It is THEY who have abandoned the party and don’t belong there.
November 26th, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Go Ron Paul - Doug took the words from my mouth when he said:
“I believe that Paul’s candid vision and leadership is exactly what the Republican party needs right now. I’m a lifetime, vote-every-election Republican. This time around Paul has my vote. Paul has the ability to attract voters from both within and without the party.”
November 27th, 2007 at 4:10 am
Wow! Everything seemed so nice till that last opinion. Do you remember the 2000 elections and George Bush’s platform? I do and it is quite similar to Ron Paul’s. For that matter it is very similar to what Eisenhower stated in his many of his addresses. You must be reffering to the post 9/11 can’t win an election Republican’s of new. Then again my part of the country sent Tom Coburn to stir things up in the Capital. If you wanna know where Dr. Paul will do well you should look at senators and congress men that vote with him in the minority or have independant voting records from their party. There you can gauge actually votes in actually elections where people actually voted. You can get them at any election board website and the results tell more than you hear in the news. Then again dont beileve me, look it all up for yourselves. Enjoy!
November 27th, 2007 at 7:35 am
Well, if 35% vote for ron paul and the other 5 split 50% doesn’t he win? (Even if they split 65% he wins) Plus, he is also going to get a lot of indies and dems etc. The math looks quite nice to me.
November 27th, 2007 at 11:06 am
Ronald Reagan said that he didn’t leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left him. I believe that the current crop of GOP candidates have “left” many Republican ideals.
Imagine it’s 1980 and you just read the positions held by these Republican “front runners”. You would swear they were Walter Mondale or Ted Kennedy!
I have decided just in the past two weeks that Ron Paul is the only candidate for me, a lifelong Republican. I am no Ron Paul disciple, either, I had never heard of him until he announced he was running for 2008.
November 27th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Justin, I know you’re a big fan of the viable third-party candidate concept, but Ron Paul is not the man for that job, IMHO. You’ve got to stop beating that drum.
November 27th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
Justin, you’re right! Ron Paul doesn’t belong in the Republican Party. After abandoning the basic principles that our party used to stand for, the Republican party doesn’t deserve a statesman like him.
In my family (all die-hard Republicans), three generations of us are unamimously supporting Ron Paul. We want our party back!
This election will be the one that we all look back on in a few years and remember that in 2008, the GOP was reclaimed for liberty’s sake, and the MSM, scientific polling and the so-called elite were shown to be impotent.
November 29th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Frankly, to me, it’s pretty clear - you vote for Ron Paul, or you cannot consider yourself a citizen patriot.
Clearly, there are many RP supporters paying close attention.
Now, we must take the time to educate those around us & convert big- media parrots & mouthpieces.
1) Know your stuff (seems like the responders here have taken care of that)
2) Listen thoughtfully & politely/respectfully
3) Correct with authority
4) Follow-up: with those who likely won’t be a waste of your energy
God Bless everyone who votes in favor of their conscience!
Now prove you’ve got one! Vote Ron Paul!
December 1st, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Ron Paul 08. Ill admitt im new to this voting thing. But i love history and if you look at why are country was founded and the principles it was founded upon i believe that Ron Paul is the only Candidate that represents what our founding fathers fought and died for. We the ron paul supporters are the Sons of Liberty. “Ask not what your country can do for you…………….”