I love the statement in the article citing Pauls winning is getting less likely with each passing week. It must be backwards day because I know he meant to say Pauls winning is getting more and more likely with each passing week. Remember, all along now they’ve been telling us Paul can’t win. If that’s the case, then why are they so concerned about him running third party so he can improve his chances. What a joke.

As usual, either Lead, follow, or get out of the way!

Also, the belief that the money Ron Paul has raised is inconsequential, ignores entirely how a free market economy works, Capital flows to the most productive asset, i.e Ron Paul.

The perception people have of “likely Republican primary voters” is based on the very few who came out in 2004 to vote in the primaries, either for or against Bush. The polls you read about what a “likely Republican primary voter” is like are based on interviews of such people. And they are not the entire party. Nor are the primaries all closed - many are open to cross-over voters.

Finally, who cares? Who cares who is in the debates next October? If Ron Paul has to give up his integrity to become president, what good would he be? Dr. Paul is committed to run as a Republican. His supporters are committed, to the tune of nearly $20M already this year, to help him win that nomination.

Poll numbers? There is only one poll that counts between now and January 4th, and that is the result of the caucuses in Iowa on January 3rd. Huckabee? C’mon. He was so intimidated by our fundraising, he shut down his live publication of his fundraising numbers. Chicken.

Ron PAul can win. I haven’t heard a fat lady singing.

Some believe America is ready for a viable third party but America votes in two-party terms. The best Perot did was 19% of the popular vote which is useless when considering the electoral college. Ron Paul probably won’t win the presidency but he will to steer the Republican party back to its old-school conservative roots and force both parties to start taking libertarians more seriously.

And remember if he doesn’t win the nomination, we can always still write him in which is what I suggest to all of my fellow supporters. His loss will be our loss so crew the primaries and the conventions. Nothing will send a message to the establishment like a strong showing for a write in candidate as a protest vote. Especially to the Republican candidate that loses because of it.

The polls don’t matter. On primary/caucus day, thousands of people who have never voted Republican are going to SHOW UP. Even in IA, where polls show RP behind by so much, he only needs 30,000 extra votes to win.

Wait and see.

Good questions, but after being active in Libertarian campaigns for many, many years, I can tell you that paul is speaking from experience of getting on enough ballots, getting in the debates (almost impossible), and the fact that many states have enacted “sore loser laws” that help prevent such candidacies …not to mention money far in excess of what he has been so fortunate with short term.

Secondly, his supporters are right … we need more debates and more mud slinging, dirty deeds, and name calling … more that the last You Tube debate. Two things happen with this #1. It turns voter off and less turn out who are looking at the MSM offered candidates. #2. Our voters will turn out with a much higher and focused percentage. I would wager if Frank Luntz (F$#@ U Frank) did a poll that measured the intesity of the Paul vote Vs. “the others” it wouldn’t even be close. Add a big snowstorm even better. Traditionally, there is a VERY low turnout for primaries anyway, add a lot of mud and yawn candidates even less.

Barring a huge screw up by Paul, and if all others split the vote as they are now with 12-20% poll numbers, LOOKOUT.

Ron Paul can no longer be labeled a “long shot” candidate as he absolutely dominates in the Straw Polls, Debate Polls, Fund Raising, Web Traffic and Grass Roots Networking and is clearly a “top tier” candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination. I have gathered the evidence to support this statement.

Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.

The Powers that Be are naturally trying to hide the economic mess this country is in. A few weeks ago, new banking rules that would have forced banks and brokers to come clean about their subprime and other “level three assets” were postponed until after the election. The new rules had been planned for a long time. That should have been front page news. Did you hear about it? As usual, it is up to us to bring these issues before the people. The MSM will not. Talk to people every day.

I have heard enough of this third party talk. Generally it comes from opponents who are looking for a sneakier way to say, “That’s not going to happen.”

Ron Paul has a very good chance of winning the GOP nomination.
1) Many states are open primaries where independants are allowed to vote. RP is already pulling 27% of the indy’s in NH

2) Fragemented field helps Ron Paul win a plurality. Please explain how a wide open field hurts him.

3) Polls have shown that 50% of Iowa *Republicans* want the troops home from Iraq. Don’t be too sure that Ron Paul is not electable with the GOP base (especially fiscal conservatives like myself).

4) Ron Paul has the money to run ads in the final weeks in the primaries. McCain & Huckabee do not. Most voters don’t make up their mind until the final weeks.

Paul should not run as a 3rd party candidate.

["And trust me, I hope that happens. But with Huckabee pulling into the lead in Iowa, and so many other candidates fragmenting the field in early primary states, the likelihood of Paul winning is getting less and less with each passing week."]

…is quite wrong. The more fragmented the field becomes, the better Paul’s chances are. No one is pulling support from Paul but Paul has started pulling support from the bigger names.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/11/the-mccain-paul.html

And, Huckabee pulling support from Romney helps Paul.

In NH I would guess he is going to pull a win judging from the support he has here. Just check out the signage.

Huckabees numbers are fudged — after all — he is now the darling of the CFR who knew they had to do this to stifle Paul — but it won’t work.

PS - this website has so much crap on it, that it doesn’t ever load properly. What’s up with that? My god it’s the worst! You can’t even read it without all this crap appearing and disappearing while you are typing…

JUST THANK GOD WE LIVE IN A COUNTRY WHERE THE MOST SKILLFUL POLITICIANS ARE ABLE TO USE YOUR MONEY TO PAY FOR SECURITY TO PREVENT CITIZENS FROM KILLING HIM WHILE HE CHEATS ON HIS WIFE WITH HIS MISTRESS.

Any momentum Huckabee gains in Iowa from social conservatives and Fair-Taxers will evaporate in New Hampshire, thanks to his spending record in Arkansas.

And far from hurting Paul, the other candidates splitting support in the other states is what gives Ron Paul his chance to win. Turnout in the primaries is low, and the field is crowded. Even if he never polls above 10%, Ron Paul could easily get 30% of the vote, enough to win, just by getting his supporters to turn out at 3x the normal rate.

Why keep talking about a third party run anyway? When a candidate is raising the most cash, attracting the most volunteers, and drawing the biggest crowds, he’s the front-runner, regardless of what the polls say.

What was John Kerry polling at in November of 2003?

30 seconds says it all: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mALpnSTGAQs

Don’t you see that the non-major party camapaign is happening as we speak? Only it’s happening WITHIN the Republican Party. The Minnesota meetup groups used the state’s Libertarian Party headquarters in St. Paul as a meeting and organizing place. I and several others with the Constitution Party of Minnesota passed out Ron Paul literature at the Minnesota State Fair at the CP’s booth. The National CP was kind enough to give me their memebership lists in Iowa that the Minnesota meetup groups used to mail RP literature and DVDs. Across the country Libertarian, Constitutionalist, perhaps even some Greens are working on the Ron Paul campaign and provding a foundation of support.

You keep thinking the GOP is some kind of closed, members only club. Any party that’s like that is by defenition a non-major party. I will point out to you that the GOP from 1944-1976 had in its platform a committment to the Equal Rights Amendment. In 1980, the ERA was removed because Ronald Reagan was nominated. How did that happen? Because many Democrats and former Wallace supporters voted in the South and elsewhere through open primaries to give Reagan the nomination and changed the GOP forever. Why can’t Ron Paul do the same thing or at least start the process of change? Parties change as coaltions and issues and demographics change, they’re not unmovable statues.

Huckabee’s will only thin the final results and help Paul with a majority vote.

Huckabee will take Iowa because of the christianist vote then hit a brick wall in NH, Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina. He is back down to middle of the pack after that.

Guiliani will not get off of the ground in the early states and will be buried in the south.

Romeny beaten by Huckabee in Iowa, then loses all of his momentum and fails to garner any wins.

McCain does not rise a third time.

Thompson never left the ground and is just digging deeper.

That means that Paul will:
place in the top 3 in Iowa.
1st in N.H- open primary and libertarian hotbed
1st in Nevada- open primary and libertarian hotbed
Top 2 in Michigan - open primary with antiwar Demo’s coming over after self-disqualification.
Top 3 in South Carolina.

Ron Paul after the first round will have more top 3 finishes than anyone else and will not have to look back. These states except for Iowa are made for a Goldwater Republican.

Also listed above is that primary’s have historicly very low turn out. Ron Paul supporters on the other hand will have 90%-99% supporter turn out.
If the turn out for other candidate supporters is as it normally is (which is to be expected of people who agree but really dont care) then you will see a landslide victory for Ron Paul.

This is why I think the MSM keeps on hammering away at the Independant run. If they can get RP out of the primary’s where he has most likely the highest chance of winning then they can exclude him completly from the full election.

The other irony is if you had been at the CNN debate there was hundreds of RP supporters if not Thousands. There was a yaht with a huge RP banner, and there was 3 planes with RP signs flying over head. After the debate there was a RP rally that had at least 600 people at it from what I have seen of the videos. Watch this. These people are absolutley fervent about restoring America to what it should have been all along.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3xuocOjmNM

“A duopoly is a market with just two sellers. Picture a beach with just two ice cream stands. While the vendors may start out anywhere, eventually they will locate in the middle of the beach where they will each be closest to half the bathers. In addition, as long as they can lock out any other competition, they can jointly act to raise their prices, lower the quality of their ice cream, and even take a vacation at the same time. An investor can come along and give both vendors a lot of money to sell only one kind of ice cream, or to keep another brand from being sold. As long as this is the only beach to swim at, the bathers will be stuck.

What makes the Republican-Democratic duopoly especially invidious is not only how both parties tacitly divide the market for votes, but their ability, as lawmakers, to write government regulations to protect themselves from competition. First they pick their voters before the voters pick them, in the process known as gerrymandering. Then, through laws they have written and customs they enforce, they restrict the access of other parties to the ballot, to campaign funding, and to the media. The result: alternative voices have immense difficulty reaching voters.” - Micah L. Sifry

“Well, sorry folks, but Paul is going to lose the GOP nomination, and that will make absolutely sure he’ll never be in the debates.”

Since you are so confident of that fact Justin, I will bet you $50.00 US, with you giving me 100 to 1 odds that he will win the nomination.

My $50 vs. your $5000.

Since “Paul is going to lose the GOP nomination” that should be an easy $50.00 for you. If you are going to make rediculous statements be ready to back them up.

You have my email address. Hmm, I wonder how long it will take for him to jump on this offer of free money?

So you don’t feel like a bookie, I pledge to donate the $5000.00 to the campaign.

Ron Paul IS a republican. He IS what GWB promised to be, and lied to the American people about. Ron Paul represents real conservatives, and he IS running in the right party.

And time and time again these predictions have been wrong. Ron Paul knows he doesn’t need a 3rd party ticket because he will in fact win the Nomination.

How in the world can people be so wrong time and time again, and then still carry any bit of credibility? They don’t in my world, I’d like to know who’s world they are that I see it still being said despite so many indicators that show otherwise.

As of right now he has raised about $2.6 million this quarter. That is a lot better than his $1 million haul last quarter…so he is improving. At this pace, he will match the $5.1 million Dr. Paul raised last quarter.

Dr. Paul will finish this month with about 11 million (maybe more) for the quarter. That is 4 times the amount of Huckabee.

Justin, you keep questioning Dr. Paul’s chances in the GOP. At the end of October you made a big point about how he fell short of his $4 million goal for the month and felt he would probably only raise about $8 million for the quarter.

I guess I am going to count on your ability to be wrong at predicting the future and continue to back Dr. Paul for the GOP nomination.

Huckabee winning in Iowa: Dilutes Romney in NH, paves the way for Paul.

Can you quit shoving your third party agenda down our throats?

Of course, maybe RP will be the Nominee of the Republicans, and then Bloomberg would Run for the Neocons.