Will Ron Paul Raise Most Money In Q4?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Money, Ron Paul
He’s on track to vault over his $12 million goal, and that could seriously outpace all of his GOP rivals, including the deep-pocketed Romney.
Add to this the fact that the Ron Paul Blimp idea apparently reached its $350K goal and the craft is set to launch on Dec. 10th for a month long tour of the nation. That website is now even raising money for advertising time on the blimp.
Ron Paul may not win his party’s primary, but he is on track to capture another big title: top Republican fundraiser for the final quarter of the money-obsessed 2008 presidential primary.In the first two months of the quarter that began Oct. 1, Paul already has raised more than $9.75 million, putting him easily within range to best the amount rival Mitt Romney received from donors during the entire third quarter.
The Texas congressman has set a goal of raising $12 million before the fourth quarter’s Dec. 31 deadline, a sum New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani couldn’t achieve in the third quarter when fundraising events still dominated his schedule.
I still think the Dec 16th moneybomb has the potential to be big for Paul, but not anywhere close to the $10 million they want to raise. As of now there are almost 23,000 pledges on the site, but you “pledge” by signing up for updates. Folks, I signed up for updates, but I’m not giving Paul any of my money. How many of those 23K are curious spectators given how popular the previous moneybomb was?
I guess we’ll see in a little over two weeks.
This entry was posted on Saturday, December 1st, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Money, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 1st, 2007 at 7:57 pm
remember the 5th only 18,000 people pledged, and about 40,000 donated…
December 1st, 2007 at 7:58 pm
The last time there was only 19,000 pledges and we got to 4.3. I think 10 is possible.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:00 pm
For the Nov. 5th money bomb there were only around 18K pledges but over 30,000 donated. So I think it’s reverse. There’s a large number of people who are interested in donating but don’t care to give their email.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:03 pm
I’m planning to donate but not planning to register.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Well only 17000 people pledged to give on Nov. 5 and he ended up getting 37 000 people to donate. 37000 donars/17000 pledges=2.1764 donars/pledge. Therefore every person that pledges I’d say that 2.1764 people will donate. By my estimate I’d say that about 30000 people will end up donating (assuming the #of people who sign up follow a similar trend as the people who signed up for Nov. 5). So 30000*2.1764=65294 and since each of those people gave $4000000/37000 people= $108/person. $108/person*65294 people=$7051764. Thus my conclusion would be that the there will be roughly 65000 donars and $7.0 million dollars worth of donations based on my analysis.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
I, Kevin Houston, officially declare that I am canceling you, Justin.
I didn’t register on the site. I get enough junk email as it is.
I will donate $100 to the Ron Paul campaign.
I wonder if there are more like you or more like me.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Justin Gardner,
I am one of those who didn’t signed up but donated on November 5th. I haven’t signed up for Tea Party but plan to donate again. I, and many others like me, are here to negate “curious joe” sign-ups like yourself.
Go Ron Paul 2008!
December 1st, 2007 at 8:10 pm
Justin, Justin, Justin…still spreading your doom-and-gloom. Some of the people aren’t signing up for the Tea Party pledge because they don’t want to give their email & personal information out. Duh.
The fact that Dr. Paul’s campaign has reached $10 million with a month to go is significant in itself. Even if the Tea Party somehow bombs (no pun intended), the campaign still reaches the $12 million 4Q goal, which still was unrealistic given the fact that the Paul campaign is a “long-shot.” The Tea Party will be huge though, my guess is about $7-$8 million, with post-publicity the last two weeks of the year Paul may get another $3 million and he’ll have $20 million for the 4Q. $20-$25 million cash on hand going into the primaries, with rumors of another Money Bomb on Dr. King’s birthday on Jan. 15th.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:11 pm
I donated on November 5th but didn’t sign up with my email because I didn’t want to get on any list and get emails for the rest of my life. I think many people are reluctant to give up their email address so it’s pretty safe to say that 22,000 email signups means many more than that who will actually donate.
Also, I have the feeling that the average donation amount will be higher this time around. No one knew how successful Nov. 5th was going to be and how much buzz it was going to generate. Now that everyone saw how much publicity it got, we are all pumped to send in all we can manage. There will be almost 20,000 new Meetup members onboard since Nov. 5th. I really wouldn’t be surprised if December 16th breaks $12 million.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:17 pm
In addition, this money bomb is well organized, planned well ahead in advance, and it honors our heritage. People know who the colonists were, December 16th is smack dab in the middle of the holiday season, it’s on a Sunday where people will be home watching the football games instead of working like on November 5th. I’m going to have to up my prediction and put it into the $10+ range. Can you imagine if Paul raises more than $10 million that day? Everyone in the news media would keel over from heart attacks.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:35 pm
Three points:
1. “It’s” = “it is”. “Its” shows possession.
2. I think you’re constantly posting RP stories because it’s good for your traffic and advertising numbers.
3. Funny how this is filed under 3rd party. Ass.
December 1st, 2007 at 8:49 pm
. . . Ron Paul rocks so hard.
Most people would expect to have a reason of WHY I think this. And that is, in a way, none of their business, selfish, and creepy.
Yeah, I just felt like expressing how extremely satisfied I am by his success. And, for sure, I’ll support him until the end. :)
December 1st, 2007 at 9:00 pm
Ron Paul will probably raise the most money in the 4th quarter, even if he doesn’t raise another dime in December. He’s already topped the totals of Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney from the third quarter, and they’ve already tapped out their big-money networks — expect their totals to go down.
At a normal background rate of $2.5 million per month, $10.5 million already chalked up, and a $7 million money bomb on the 16th, Ron Paul will probably be looking at a $20 million quarter!
December 1st, 2007 at 9:12 pm
I am NOT registered, but I plan on giving $200 for the Tea Party on Dec. 16. Its gonna be big, REALLY BIG!
December 1st, 2007 at 9:26 pm
I don’t know wtf you are smoking but the website clearly states:
” Please pledge now. Please spread the word. Thank you.
Enter your email address” and next to it the submit button is a PLEDGE button, the word ‘update(s)’ doesn’t even appear on the front page, entering your email address is a pledge to donate.
December 1st, 2007 at 9:26 pm
Thanks for the grammar catch MacTaggart. Fixed.
As for your other points, I post about Paul for two reasons:
1) His internet support is amazing and reinforces that the internet can help create major buzz around an virtually unknown candidate.
2) He has the potential to be the most viable 3rd party candidate in over a decade.
If you choose to doubt my motivations and call me names, that’s fine.
As for the other comments about canceling me out, I think you’re probably right. Again, I guess we’ll see.
December 1st, 2007 at 9:36 pm
why did you sign up on our pledge drive if you won’t pledge? well, we don’t need a pledge from you anyhow. the oddsmakers are figuring we’ll raise around 6 million. how’s that? oh, and I have NOT pledged either, but along with the other true patriots, I WILL donate!
December 1st, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Of the 38,000 that contributed on November 5th, 17,000 were first time contributers.
Regarding both the blimp and the Tea party, the sky’s the limit.
I really like the sentiment in the pro Ron Paul comments here, and urge everyone to double their efforts for the revolution.
Attend those meetups.
View the volunteer training materials.
Learn the campaign strategy for your state.
Help implement it.
Regardless of how high we fly on 12/16, the unique aspect of the Ron Paul Revolution is You! Other “candidates” pay people to do things Ron Paul Supporters just do naturally.
If you’re actively participating in the revolution, THANK YOU! And if not… You’re missing out on a tremendous experience. Join Us!
December 1st, 2007 at 9:50 pm
I am planning on giving 250$.
It is going to be big!!!! Real BIG!…
and I did not pledge.
Hope for America!
December 1st, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Aren’t you the same idiot who said that the campaign was dead in the water at the end of October? I take whatever you say with a grain of salt. I just come to read the comments, and watch you get owned…AGAIN!
December 1st, 2007 at 10:07 pm
Many of us who have signed up plan to give more. Unfortunately, some who would like to contribute on the 16th have already maxed out. Hence, we now have a blimp. I think if we get 40K signed up on the Tea Party list then 10 mill will be possible.
December 1st, 2007 at 10:14 pm
Let’s lay off Justin. He’s coming around. Still a skeptic but it looks like he’s keeping an open mind. It’s put up or shut up boys. Get away from the computers and hit the streets! If they hear the message they’ll come. We got the internet, get everybody else!
December 1st, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Let’s lay off Justin, he’s coming around. Just being a skeptic, but I think we can get him. Put up or shut up boys! We can’t just keeping talking about it, we gotta hit the streets and get the word out. Get away from the computers and start talking to people. There’s an Iowa letter writing campaign, donate to house volunteers in New Hampshire, keep the blimp going, but get out the word! We’ve got the internet, get everybody else.
December 1st, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Justin - WAKE UP! RP is not a 3rd Party Candidate!
He IS the only Republican who can win against the dems..so, keep up or shut up.
December 1st, 2007 at 11:18 pm
I agree with Jeffrey. Too many are spending too much time on the computer and not enough campaigning. Get a list of likely voters from the Ron Paul campaign, get some slim jims, and start walking the streets and getting them into the hands of people who don’t live on the internet. I handed a slim jim today to a guy I know and he said, “I hadn’t heard of him yet.” So many people still to reach.
December 1st, 2007 at 11:49 pm
Justin,
1. Please do your homework before you put stuff online.
2. Smart people always appreciate all facets of journalism but are disgusted by ignorant writing.
December 1st, 2007 at 11:51 pm
True that, Mark O
Our meet-up group persuaded a nearby mall to let us set up a table. It was great to spend time talking to people who had not heard of Ron Paul. There were enough of us there where anyone that wanted to chat at length had the opportunity. It was fun!
Tips for everyone:
Keep some business sized Ron Paul cards in your wallet, so every time you make a purchase, you can offer the clerk an opportunity to learn about Ron Paul’s message.
One place to get them is http://www.LibertyCard.org (not an endorsement, there are other sources.)
When block-walking you can offer easy to play DVDs to folks who are not internet savy, or carry a variety of Ron Paul writings from LewRockwell.com.
Whether it’s block-walking, sign hanging, rallies, letter writing or phone banks, there’s something fun for each of us to do in support of this revolution.
I’ve never met a Ron Paul supporter that didn’t look like they were enjoying the experience of working with the campaign.
I look forward to meeting You!
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:41 am
I have been in sales for over a decade. One thing I know for sure is that when a customer puts down a deposit, they are much more likely to come through and accept their order.
Something nobody has talked about is that people like me who have given are for damned sure going to show up and vote during the primaries. I went to my voting office just to make sure I was registered and to find out if I could vote early. I’ve never even considered voting in a primary before. The money coming in represents more than just money to advertise. It represents voters (since it is all from individuals) who have made a down payment on their vote. Ron Paul’s supporters will turn out at the highest rate in history.
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:02 am
According to meetup.com there are currently 78,666 registered Ron Paul meetup members. My guess is that there are far more supporters than there may appear to be. For instance, in my meetup group, less than half of our members are registered with the website. These folks are either not Internet savvy or simply never bothered to register. As our support grows, I believe the ratio of non-registered group members to registered meetup members will increase because many of our new members just won’t even bother to register with the website. The reality is, who cares? It might make us look better illustrating that we have strong support, but I’m sure they would just write it off as if we were creating fake members or something.
Anyhow, at the time of the Nov. 5th money bomb, we had half as many members as we do now and only a small percentage donated during the Nov. 5th money bomb because they were unaware of it. Although they are now aware of the Tea Party money bomb, most have not registered with the web-site, but I can attest to the fact that our members are very committed and not cheap. As a result, I am sure that most (if not all) of our members will donate during the Dec. 16th Tea Party. Also, it is on our schedule of events.
My point is that I agree with most of the commenter’s that our little tea party will be one for the history books.
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:03 am
Excellent point Lester.
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:31 am
“How many of those 23K are curious spectators given how popular the previous moneybomb was?”
Curious that he doesn’t consider the converse of that statement, I.E. “how many of the 126,000 visitors to the Teaparty website will contribute but haven’t pledged”.
I haven’t pledged and I will contribute at least $250…possibly more. I am seriously thinking of contributing $1000 dollars to the Ron Paul and then betting another $1000 that his campaign makes it to over 10M. I really think the MSM is completely blind to what is happening.
http://www.ogpaper.com/news/news-01388.html
“But the odds makers don’t feel confident that Ron Paul will hit the $10 million mark at the 2007 Ron Paul Tea Party, on the betting prop will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 meet its goal of raising $10 million or more in donations, failure to do so is currently favored with odds -400 and “yes” pays underdog odds of +250.”
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:34 am
Funny, I put the “subscribe to a feed” argument in the plus category as far as numbers go. My friends and I all signed on at the beginning, but we got so annoyed by the stupid updates that we all unsubscribed. But we’re definitely all donating…
December 2nd, 2007 at 2:51 am
Also keep in mind that every new supporter converted from Nov 5th to Dec 16th will know about the Tea Party and there are rallys, events, signwavings, promotions, TV appearances, news articles and a general rising in consciousness about the Ron Paul phenomenon. I am thinking it will raise 13 million and all of the pundits heads will explode and finally we will get the attention we deserve as we turn the collective heads of the nation toward our message.
There is also activism planned leading up to the tea party. Check out the link for details.
December 2nd, 2007 at 5:11 am
I did not sign up for the 5th drop. I did drop $500 on that day. :o)
After the news broke, all of my friends who know that I support Ron Paul yet have NEVER been politically active in my life became VERY *curious*.
So, I now know for a fact that 7 other people (not including me) WILL be donating on the 16th. They all feel bad because they weren’t part of the New World Record (NWR) lol
I, like so many others, will DOUBLE my drop at the Tea Party all the while asking the establishment: Will that be one LUMP or two… I’m thinkin’ two…
Look up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! No… It’s a freakin’ Ron Paul blimp!
HOW MANY RECORDS DOES THE rEVOLution HAVE TO BREAK/CREATE BEFORE PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS FOR REAL?
December 2nd, 2007 at 5:13 am
I also am donating $100 for teaparty07!
I am so excited Ron Paul has a legitimate shot, realize he does.
Ron Paul will win unless his supporters dont vote based on thinking it isnt going to matter.
20-25% of people who support a cannidate vote in primarys…. for Ron Paul fanatics like myself what will our % be????
People are going to be really suprised seeing the results of the early primarys =)
December 2nd, 2007 at 7:27 am
I can’t wait to tea bag the other candidates on the 16th!! I love the rEVOLution! RP08!
December 2nd, 2007 at 7:57 am
My Real Estate Brokerage went belly under. I only have enough money to last til February, then I have to sell my house. :(
I’m donating 100 dollars on the 16th!
I’m like a lot of other supporters and giving my all. In about 2 hours I’m heading out to churches to pass out RP flyers in the snow. To hell w/ my arthritis :)
Rock on Ron Paul!!!
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:11 am
I think he’ll do between 5-6 million on the 16th. Based on doubling the sign-up count times 100 plus change. So 25,000 x 100 = 5 million plus change maybe 6 million no more. I think the expectation of 10 million is too high. 5-6 million beats the old record and is still great.
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:12 am
I think he’ll do between 5-6 million on the 16th. Based on doubling the sign-up count times 100 plus change. So 25,000 x 2 x 100 = 5 million plus change maybe 6 million no more. I think the expectation of 10 million is too high. 5-6 million beats the old record and is still great.
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:31 am
I’m not regging for this one, and I didn’t for the 5th. That’s not going to stop me though from donating 200 bucks directly to the RP campaign. I’m sure their are many others like me.
This guy will win the nomination, he’s dominating at everything except those media controlled landline polls, in which the majority only poll 2004 primary voters.
December 2nd, 2007 at 9:10 am
This is one of the many problems with the Neocons. They promise to do something (e.g., donate $100 to the Ron Paul campaign) and have no intention of following through. It is reflected in their politics, it is reflected in their spirit and it certainly will be reflected in their contracts. Justin is simply a liar and the People have no respect for liars. I’m putting in $200. $100 from me and $100 to cover the liar’s lie.
December 2nd, 2007 at 9:25 am
I didn’t sign up for November 5th, but donated $600.00 on that day.
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:40 pm
why did i have to include a bogus email address just to post this?
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:50 pm
Justin, I was enjoying reading your post, until I hit the line where you said you’re not donating any of your money to Ron Paul. What a slap in the face. Who are you donating to?
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
I will donate at least 100 but haven’t signed up and most likely won’t so I will take your spot.
December 2nd, 2007 at 4:44 pm
Justin,
I can see your blog on December 17th.
“Ron Paul falls way short of Tea Party Goal!”
Ron Paul supporters were only able to raise $ 7 million of the expected $ 10 million the event had hoped for. This is definitely a sign he should run a third party campaign. I noticed that Ron Paul stubbed his toe today which is also an indicator that he should run third party.
Get over it Justin. You use Ron Paul-third party more often than Guiliani says “9/11″. Just tell Romney that no matter how many times you ask the Paul supporters to get on the third party bandwagon they won’t buy it.
Why don’t you see if you can get Howard Dean to run third party?
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:01 am
I registered for 11/5, gave the $100–my first donation to RP. Since then I’ve given another $400.
I registered for 12/16 and will be donating $500 on that day. Registered/Unregistered-who cares? We need to get off the ‘net and hit the streets (in a respectful way-nobody likes to be told who they should vote for.) I’m a registered Republican and I will vote in the primaries, donate some more and will vote for him in the election, even if I have to write him in.
Since I went over to the Ron Paul camp, I will never vote the same way again. I will never vote again for “the lesser of two evils.”
December 3rd, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Why would you subscribe just to get emails which inform you of how many PLEDGES have signed up? You can check the web site for that. I think there is only 1 out of 23,000 people who have done that.
December 3rd, 2007 at 5:47 pm
I have not pledged on the site. I will be donating $100.
So please, feel free to lower the expectations. It will only make the Tea Party that much more astounding.
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:27 pm
To all you pledging and non-pledging Paul donators out there. The name of the game is now the PRIMARIES and INCREASING DELEGATES. It is really, really easy to do!
1) Go to http://www.ronpaul2008.com/states/ and click on your state to find out who is organizing the primary/caucus volunteers.
2) Send the organizer an email saying you wish to become a delegate and/or precinct captain for the primaries.
3) Wait until they tell you what to do. Some states will have more hoops to jump through than others but it is still VERY EASY!
Don’t tell yourself that you couldn’t be a delegate… Everyone can be!!
Back up your Donation(Investment) by becoming a delegate.
Oh and I am donating $500 to help pass the $6.3 million record held by Hillary Clinton for the all-purpose single day record. Anything beyond that is icing on the cake!
December 3rd, 2007 at 10:59 pm
I’m registered and I am giving $1000. I can’t afford to, but then I can’t afford not to.
December 4th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Ron Paul will lead all the other candidates in fund raising. He also has a chance to win! Read the following essay for more info:
President Ron Paul – Could He Really Win?
http://www.gambling911.com/Ron-Paul-121407.html
December 4th, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Ron Paul may be our last best hope to begin to restore the freedoms that our founding fathers envisioned. I don’t agree with everything that Ron proposes but I agree with little that all of the other candidates espouse. Ron has the best solution to nearly all of the issues and problems that the fear mongers use to advance their agendas, a big dose of personal responsibility and a much smaller federal government. No one running has his level of integrity and a proven track record that shows he votes his beliefs. We haven’t had a candidate like this since Goldwater, my first presidential vote. This is the first time I have donated to a candidate in my life and will continue to do so until I max out. I would only urge those who have doubts and those who scream for real change to imagine waking up on Nov 5, 2008 with Ron as the next president. Anyone else promises either business as usual or worse.
December 5th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
i just sent the first political contribution i ever made. $100.00 and my mate will be sending the same. we are changing our registration in florida to repulican so we can vote in the primary.
ron paul is the first person since kennedy i will be voting for instead of trying to pick the least worst.
no problem picking the worst
ABBHC
ANYBODY BUT HILLARY CLINTON.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:33 pm
Unfortunately, this upcoming Ron Paul money bomb will be impugned by the Dennis Kucinich money bomb planned for the day before the December 16th money bomb. I also can not believe that the Rudy’s Reading List $$$bomb fell flat. I wanted to send Rudy Giuliani such a message.
December 7th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Judging from the past moneybombs, they consistently pull in around $250 per subscriber. So if it hits 30k subs by the 16th, that is $7.5 million. Not $10 million, but an ALL TIME US record none the less.
December 12th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Yes he will raise more money in the fourth quarter and he will do it legally. Not like the rest of the political prostitutes.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
[...] Will Ron Paul Raise Most Money In Q4? Donklephant - 12/02/2007 [...]
December 29th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
[...] Will Ron Paul Raise Most Money In Q4? [...]
January 21st, 2008 at 8:28 am
How much do you guys think RP can raise in this quatre?
Anyone have any thoughts?
I set up a poll at http://www.ifimpresident.com/d1518_how_much_can_ron_paul_raise_this_quatre/ to see what people in general think…