Comments on: A Brokered GOP Convention? http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Transplanted Lawyer http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/comment-page-1/#comment-386423 Transplanted Lawyer Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:41:45 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/#comment-386423 Sorry for the similar submits; my first one did not appear quickly. Sorry for the similar submits; my first one did not appear quickly.

]]> By: Transplanted Lawyer http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/comment-page-1/#comment-386422 Transplanted Lawyer Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:39:17 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/#comment-386422 Agreed that a brokered GOP convention would be a beautiful dream for political junkies. But I doubt it will happen; the rules were crafted to make that sort of result very unlikely. Recall that conventions are decided by delegate votes, and that GOP primaries are generally set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of winner-take-all. This strongly favors plurality winners. For instance, if the current polling numbers in NH became the election results, Romney would get 7 of the 12 delegates at stake, with less than a third of the vote. It's possible that the primary process would result in no candidate getting a clear majority of delegates committed to him. But the likeliest result would be Giuliani (assuming he can make it far enough to the later-scheduled primary states where he has an advantage) and Romney (assuming he can survive Huckabee poaching the early states from him) splitting the bulk of the delegates. That might put someone like Huckabee or McCain in the position of having enough delegates to throw the convention one way or the other in exchange for the Vice-Presidential nomination, but that would be the sort of deal that would be made before the convention. Agreed that a brokered GOP convention would be a beautiful dream for political junkies. But I doubt it will happen; the rules were crafted to make that sort of result very unlikely. Recall that conventions are decided by delegate votes, and that GOP primaries are generally set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of winner-take-all. This strongly favors plurality winners. For instance, if the current polling numbers in NH became the election results, Romney would get 7 of the 12 delegates at stake, with less than a third of the vote.

It’s possible that the primary process would result in no candidate getting a clear majority of delegates committed to him. But the likeliest result would be Giuliani (assuming he can make it far enough to the later-scheduled primary states where he has an advantage) and Romney (assuming he can survive Huckabee poaching the early states from him) splitting the bulk of the delegates. That might put someone like Huckabee or McCain in the position of having enough delegates to throw the convention one way or the other in exchange for the Vice-Presidential nomination, but that would be the sort of deal that would be made before the convention.

]]> By: Gary http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/comment-page-1/#comment-386420 Gary Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:15:32 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/#comment-386420 Yes, I think that it will be Ron Paul. He's the best chance for the Republicans this time by far. His support is broad and enthusiastic and his anti-war stance is what is needed to run against the Democrats. Its time for a change and Ron Paul will help this country get back on its feet. Yes, I think that it will be Ron Paul. He’s the best chance for the Republicans this time by far. His support is broad and enthusiastic and his anti-war stance is what is needed to run against the Democrats. Its time for a change and Ron Paul will help this country get back on its feet.

]]> By: Bob http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/comment-page-1/#comment-386419 Bob Tue, 18 Dec 2007 16:10:31 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/#comment-386419 Clearly Mr. Zogby realizes that even though his outdated polls don't show it, Dr. Paul is THE force to be reckoned with for the nomination. God Bless America Clearly Mr. Zogby realizes that even though his outdated polls don’t show it, Dr. Paul is THE force to be reckoned with for the nomination. God Bless America

]]> By: Transplanted Lawyer http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/comment-page-1/#comment-386417 Transplanted Lawyer Tue, 18 Dec 2007 15:50:53 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2007/12/18/a-brokered-gop-convention/#comment-386417 A brokered convention would be like a beautiful dream for political junkies. Especially if the split is between five significant candidates, so there is no clear front-runner. Keep in mind, though, that most of the Republican primaries are set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of the winner-take-all theme, to prevent that from happening. For instance, if today's polls in New Hampshire were the actual election results, Romney would get more than half of New Hampshire's delegates by earning less than a third of the votes in the primary. Similar rules apply in the big states, which plays to Romney and Giuliani's advantage (if Giuliani can last long enough to get to the big states). So even if the primaries don't yield an obvious winner, it could wind up resolving with Huckabee choosing whether he's rather be Romney's or Giuliani's running mate -- and that sort of decision would get made before the convention. A brokered convention would be like a beautiful dream for political junkies. Especially if the split is between five significant candidates, so there is no clear front-runner. Keep in mind, though, that most of the Republican primaries are set up as winner-take-all, or modifications of the winner-take-all theme, to prevent that from happening. For instance, if today’s polls in New Hampshire were the actual election results, Romney would get more than half of New Hampshire’s delegates by earning less than a third of the votes in the primary. Similar rules apply in the big states, which plays to Romney and Giuliani’s advantage (if Giuliani can last long enough to get to the big states). So even if the primaries don’t yield an obvious winner, it could wind up resolving with Huckabee choosing whether he’s rather be Romney’s or Giuliani’s running mate — and that sort of decision would get made before the convention.

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