The Reality Of Ron Paul’s Support
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Ron PaulEver had deja vu? That feeling that you’ve experience something that happened before? Well, I’ve had this feeling for the past several months, and while the two situations aren’t exactly the same they’re close enough to spook me nonetheless.
And sadly, the following blog post nails the problem with what this deja vu is all about: the reality of online support transitioning into the real world.
Paul is on a roll, up in some polls, down significantly in others, which Paul people don’t care anything about because they say they don’t believe in polls because nobody’s going to tell them how to vote, even though polls aren’t orders for anybody, they only reveal how a few hundred people say they’re going to vote at that moment in time.Because everybody Ron Paul supporters say they talk to either already are or immediately become Ron Paul supporters, they believe the Ron Paul Revolution will sweep the country sometime shortly into the New Year, starting perhaps in New Hampshire where they have so many yard signs and the license plates say “Live Free or Die.” Also, the new Ron Paul blimp is flying around there.
Yeah, yeah, polls don’t matter, but do know that we had the cell phone argument too in 2004. At least until Dean started leading. And then we took the polls seriously. Personally, I never bought that argument, but it definitely made the rounds on the blogs and got into the media, as it has with Ron Paul.
I’m not kidding. We were saying the EXACT same things. I told you all to study the Dean campaign, but I doubt any of you did. It takes more than just believing folks, and from everything I’ve read Paul doesn’t have the true ground game to get out the vote.
But sure, this time will be different. Because of what exactly? His money? Dean had more. His online support? Dean had more. The blimp? Sorry, but even though it’s a nifty marketing tactic does anybody really think a blimp is going to convince GOP voters to turn out en masse for Paul? Because that’s what they need to do. He needs to be at the top of the heap. Does anybody really think that’s going to happen? Realistically? Or are you all just wishing it will happen?
Plus, there’s no way that his Meet The Press appearance helped him with GOP voters. Not a chance. His message is not appealing to the large majority of that audience and whether you like it or not the hardcore GOPers are the ones who come out on election days. I have no doubt he’ll pull some independents into the fray, but not nearly enough to win anything of importance.
So is it all gloom and doom? Well, no. Because I think a swift quick in the butt from the primaries will quickly convince Paul that he needs to decide whether or not a 3rd party run is something he wants to do. If so, he’ll have a great head start and enough people in his Meetup groups to mobilize in nearly every state and get him on the ballot. But if not, well, then online support will once again be proven impotent in the offline world.
But that’s my take on the reality of the situation.
What’s yours?
UPDATE:
For the folks who keep calling me names, click here.
Seriously, you don’t want to be that guy.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 26th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 26th, 2007 at 10:53 am
I really cannot argue some of your points but, I have attended 12 Ron Paul Rallies and three Straw Polls, I have attended several other events that included Huckabee and Rudy. I can affirm, from first hand experience, that Ron Paul supporters are every bit as hardcore, if not more so than the Hardcore GOP voters that show up for the primaries. RoN Pauls supporters will show up at the primaries in droves and this alone challanges the logic behind most of the logic your article supports.
December 26th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Why is everybody so obsessed with trying to predict what will be a certainty in just a few more days? The winners of the Iowa caucuses and NH primaries will be known soon enough.
In the mean time, lets put our time to better use by debating the issues instead of the polls and candidates’ chances.
December 26th, 2007 at 10:55 am
My take is that you are an idiot. And I’m thankful for the right to be able to say it.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:01 am
Paul jumped from 4% to 10% in Iowa in the last week. Huck and the others went down.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:06 am
Ron Paul has won more debates than any other candidate, that is according to the very polls of the networks that have hosted the debates.
Yet those same networks hide, deny or remove the poll results. This isn’t “conspiracy talk” this is fact.
He has more straw poll wins too, than any other candidate. Recently a straw poll in San Francisco that was obviously slanted to Fred Thompson was shut down because it was evident Ron Paul was going to win it. Again, fact.
Why is it so odd that people want liberty, an honest President and fiscal responsibility?
December 26th, 2007 at 11:15 am
Honestly, To even claim that Dean had more online support than Paul makes this whole article worthless. The only points you had were what involved convincing the GOP which means convincing the supremecy of our subliminally dictated world. Overwhelming evidence of election voting fraud has happened in the past 2 elections. What makes you think this one will be any different?
December 26th, 2007 at 11:19 am
I agree there is a blind overconfidence from supporters. I don’t think anyone knows how many supporters there really are. I would however, at least double his poll numbers. I don’t think that’s unrealistic. The cell phone issuie is valid. He has a great deal of support from Democrats (like me) who have changed parties to vote for him, and disenchanted GOP voters who have not voted previously or in a while. I also believe that a Ron Paul supporter is much more likely to actually vote. I think I saw that less than 12 percent of registered voters actually participate in the primaries. I think he’ll be the surprise of Iowa and NH, but I’m concerned that his message hasn’t reached enough people to propel him to a GOP victory. Do well in Iowa and NH, then save all that money for a third party run. A hillary, Rudy run would make people listen to him. Thanks to this iste for providing good, objective discussions.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:19 am
Yea you may be right I hope not but as of late the blimp has been on the ground worthless there. His poll number are still low so I hope something change because the Great USA is going to the dogs are money is not worth the paper it printed on and are military is be worked to death so bring back the draft and we can fight for ever right? I mean the USA wants Loves and Needs war because we are the best and no one can touch us! So Lets Fight Fight Fight right MR Bush Right Mr Channey Right Fox News???? Go Ron Paul
December 26th, 2007 at 11:23 am
dean did not have more money nor more support online…
December 26th, 2007 at 11:31 am
The online gambling folks are dropping their odds on Paul.. they were putting their money heavily against him winning in the primaries, but now have him second in odds to Guiliani. http://www.ogpaper.com/news/news-01507.html
It wasn’t that the online aspect failed (it succeeded greatly), but rather the traditional media turned on him. The same may very well happen to the Paul campaign. There is much about his beliefs that the talking heads can poke fun of and the general public will listen to the talking heads as they have been trained to. If the media does attack Paul, and he does what you suggest and mount a 3rd party bid then the GOP will be in serious trouble and they know it. Dean dropped out and his votes remained for the GOP.. Paul supporters will not vote for Guiliani.
tammy .. read this to see how much cash the Dean campaign had
http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/summary.asp?ID=N00025663
And the 20 million that Paul will have raised in the 4th quarter? A drop in the bucket:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp
December 26th, 2007 at 11:31 am
Justin,
Have you seen the new AOL spam free online poll?
As of now 122,591 people have voted and Dr. Paul has a 17% lead over Giuliani and Huckabee. The cool thing about this poll is it breaks down state by state. Dr. Paul is winning BIG in Iowa and New Hampshire. He is winning in 47 of the 50 states. Giuliani is winning in New York and New Jersey. Romney is winning in Utah. Dr. Paul is dominating in California!
Please check it out and let us know your spin.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/?ncid=NWS00010000000001
Like I said last time, I don’t mind the Howard Dean comparisons. If Dr. Paul can stay away from screaming like a mad man on national TV, I like his chances.
Take Care.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:35 am
Darren.. unfortunately that poll can be spammed quite easily.. they relied solely on cookies to protect against multiple votes.
http://oddhammer.com/index.php/site/comments/making_a_secure_online_poll_with_flash/
So it’s easy to say the poll isn’t accurate even though they could have made it much harder to cheat on without much extra work.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Differences between Dean and Paul campaing:
- Paul’s fundraising is driven by supporters, not by the campaing.
- Paul’s support comes from outside the normal voters, unlike Deans. Paul also has much broader appeal(democrats, liberals, first time voters, republicans, young people)
- Paul campaing has everything to win and nothing to lose in Iowa and NH, unlike Dean who was leading all the polls. If Paul does well(3rd) in Iowa and because of this boost wins NH, he is going to win the nomination.
- Paul has a message that differs drastically from other candidates of the same party, Dean’s message was not that different from other democrats.
- Paul has much more active and bigger grassroot campaing with much more enthusiastic people.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:38 am
Polls like the AOL one are meaningless. No matter how much the Ron Paul supporters don’t want to believe it there is far more to the polls you see in the media than a self-selected group online.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:40 am
“But that’s my take on the reality of the situation.
What’s yours?”
That you don’t have a very strong grip on reality.
With the plethora of anti-Paul rants (from the running scared crowd), scripted to try to separate Ron Paul from his supporters it’s obvious that Dr. Paul is a top-tier candidate or they wouldn’t be fighting so hard against him.
What really confuses me; Ron Paul is fighting for everybodys freedom. Doesn’t everybody want freedom? Or are the detractors the ones trying to keep the rest of us from being free…? Makes one think, doesn’t it?
December 26th, 2007 at 11:50 am
I agree that he may not do as well as we supporters hope because his message does not appeal to the masses. The masses being the vast numbers of Americans who believe that “everything is gonna be alright” and that we are right to police the world, and that they, as Americans, deserve to be taken care of (and controlled…..oops, did I say that?) by their government. Hopefully, something will wake these masses from their television induced trance before the elections. If not, at least a few more people are being jolted awake every day, and perhaps someday, we will return our great nation to what it was meant to be, an independent, free country. I will continue to do my part and tell everyone I know to check him out and decide for themselves.
December 26th, 2007 at 11:51 am
My take is that Im bookmarking your site, with plans to return in a few weeks to watch you enjoy a nice Crow dinner (you can include some fava beans and a nice chianti if it will help to disguise the wild gamey taste). Independents can vote in either primary of their choice, and Dems can switch parties for a day to vote in them too. It’s not just up to the vapid GOP “base” this time. Therein lies the flaw in your “logic” and the reason that youll be proven completely wrong.
See you after the primaries, nostradamus. ;)
December 26th, 2007 at 11:56 am
AOL’s poll of over 100 thousand people of all political parties is meaningless, but is it more meaningless than a land line telephone poll of under 500 people of one political party?
December 26th, 2007 at 11:58 am
First polls. Currently, they are all over the place. Basically, they have about a 4% error - and that’s not including any errors made by the poll takers. Add to that the fact that the self reported question of “are you likely to vote in the Caucus - is often way over reported. Add to that some issues with Cell phones, and screened calls, and the issue of first time caucus goers not on the call list, There could easily be a 10 % error in the polls.
RP’s ground game - You assume its not so good - but I don’t know. It probably doesn’t have to be quite as good given how ardent his supporters are. There are alot of people in Iowa and NH. For a third party run, he needs to do well in these states, because he needs enough momentum to get into the debates.
A third party run is interesting, since I could see a scenario where the mountain western states go for Ron Paul, and he could get as many as 30 -50 electoral votes, Might that spur a Paulite 3rd party movement ?
December 26th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
I’m afraid you’ve missed the real picture to what’s going on here. If your measuring stick is based on what the conventional media is telling you, well, you might be unpleasantly surprised in ‘08. Your logical cannot apply to this situation. The polls are skewed because they totally leave out Ron Paul in most cases. I’m afraid the GOP will have a hard time sweeping him under the rug no matter what anyone says… including you. :-)
December 26th, 2007 at 12:14 pm
Why are all of you assuming the AOL poll is being spammed?
If that is true, why aren’t all candidates supporters doing so?
Jim S. - Are the landline phone polls more accurate? Don’t they sample “likely voters”? The voter lists come from the state GOP based on people who voted in the caucuses and primaries from the previous election cycle. Only about 6% of registered republicans went out and voted in the last cycle because we had an incumbent President running unopposed. Hard core George Bush fans are not Ron Paul fans. So polling the same 6% of people are not going to move Dr. Paul’s numbers very quickly. They will show a change in the flavor of the month pro-Bush candidates though. The more Huckabee aligns himself with the President the more he goes up with the 6%. The problem is that President Bush only has a 30% approval rating at best nationwide. Margin of error in this years polling will be over 20%…go ahead and mark it down…you heard it first here.
December 26th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Telephone and online polls are worthless. The only polls that matter are the ones that require some amount of actual sacrifice, namely straw polls and fundraising. But the problem with even these polls is that they are only snapshots of the past, and don’t indicate future support.
The stockmarket is much the same. At any given time, the bid, ask, and volume data tell us what the public perceives the value of a company to be. But, it is impossible to make a living by trading only based on the past performance of a stock, based on past polling data. All traders use inference of future events to hedge their position. And the most successful traders - Buffet, Soros, Rogers - actually only use the polls (past price data) in combination with their ideas of true value to decide to trade. If this is the case, the best predictors of future performance have been those who know when to ignore the polls, not those who base their perdictions on them.
As such, I am predicting that there is a serious discrepancy between Paul’s poll numbers and his actual support. This discrepancy has been apparent through the disconnect between his straw poll data and fundraising vs. his MSM support and MSM polling data. There are many more Paul supporters than are counted by MSM sources, and they are ready to storm the voting booths and caucuses.
December 26th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Justin Gardner,
so I gather the a you are voting for MORE OF THE SAME! I just want to sceam in your face!
More taxes, more inflation, more devaluation of Americans weatlth!
THE CLONE WARS, the presidential candidates from both parties are interchangeable. Yes, Obi-Ron is our only hope!
When they stump, Democrats or Republicans, always tell us,”I have a plan”. Are you kidding me? It’s the same drible I’ve heard since I was a kid. And your still buying into it. I’ll tell you my plan, how about the Constitution?
I just want to scream in your face.
Help us Obi-Ron, save us from the clones!
December 26th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
I happen to agree with Robert E. and basically say the same thing. Haven’t we got more to debate then poll numbers? WHO CARES! They can’t all be right or wrong. Noone knows for sure what will happen right now. Even those ahead are worried because they know that the only “poll” that counts (and it may be rigged) is the primaries and caucuses which will begin in a few days and then we’ll all know the “real” story (maybe) but at least more so.
Now, that being said let’s dicuss issues instead of poll numbers if you really want to do some good. Ok? Let’s talk about the loss of personal freedom, the crashing dollar, the right of individuals to own (and keep) their property, the ILLEGAL alien issue at the borders, the Patriot Act that makes every citizen who doesn’t agree with the US Administration a terrorist who can be detained, tortured, and even killed without anyone knowing, the inequitable taxes, and many, many more issues that are far more important then numbers dialed on a telephone!
For REAL issues and Ron Paul see http://www.ronpaul2008.com or http://www.ronpaullibrary.org
December 26th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Hi.
First time poster and not politically active; until this year.
There are real voters carrying signs and attending rallies in the thousands. There are 85,439 real people going to the 1400+ meetup groups in 30 different countries.
There are real straw polls being won and there are real delegates taking positions.
There are real people in the news like Jack Cafferty, Tucker Carlson and Jim Cramer siding with Dr. Paul.
There are real active military donations being sent to the Paul campaign, more than any other candidate.
Say what you want about it not being real but I don’t know how this can be argued. And Libertarians have been around a long time and they number in the hundreds of thousands who, while free to vote for anyone, probably will side with Dr. Paul.
Also, in case you haven’t noticed, real people respond with real thoughts online. I am not some 17 year old college kid voting for the first time and neither are the people that I know that support Dr. Paul. I personally know at least 2 Repubs that support Dr. Paul who attended the last GOP convention in NYC. They aren’t kiddies either. But still we love those kids that campaign because they understand what this country is supposed to be and they want what has been described to them.
December 26th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
The people of America have to understand that it’s the media which is controlled and if we are not too careful it will be us next. It does not take a rocket scientist to see that the MSM’s job is to smear Ron Paul. They have been instructed to lie, cheat, dis-info, and do just about anything to derail the Ron Paul movement. Who cares about the civil war. We are facing a total corporate world takeover that is near completion. The last thing the ruling Elite want is what the people want.
December 26th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
All the blimp says is “Google Ron Paul”…..It’s up to the individual to study his platform and make an education decision. You ridicule trying to get over an unfair press, instead of ridiculing the unfair press???????We wouldn’t have had to do this if the MSM had not ignored him in the critical information gathering period of the election process. Now there’s only days left before the first Primaries.
December 26th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
I had given up on politics before reading about Ron Paul. I am a registered republican living in Ohio. I’m only one person, but I will say what’s happened to me. I found out about Ron Paul in August ‘07. I was skeptical at first, so I began researching the man. The more I read, the more I realized this man was true. The more I studied about our country, the more I realized we are collapsing. Should we just let our country collapse? Or should we propell a man into office who is actually going to try to correct the problem? What’s more dangerous? We have to come to our senses and not care about what policies we agree with or don’t agree with, the fact of the matter is, our founding fathers were genious, and Ron Paul is the closest to them of any candidate.
As for support, all of my friends don’t have cell phones, we are all college students. In September, I ordered 50 Ron Paul bumper stickers. I put them on my car, and my sister and her boyfriend put them on theirs. My mom, sister, sister’s boyfriend, two aunts and grandma have done the same and are voting for Ron Paul in our primary. Seriously, you are under-estimating Ron Paul by far. I have also convinced many people from my MSN group and in real life friends to vote for Ron Paul. You throw the word “logical” around, but wouldn’t it be “logical” to say a candidate that is raising more money than the other republican candidates, who is supported by the military, who has more meet up groups than any candidate combined, who has people out campaigning for him for free, and have people who actually cry and are filled with hope when they hear this man speak, isnt it logical to say he will have a 99% turn out rate? You’re telling me that I’ve donated 125$ on Nov. 5, 100$ on Dec. 16, and bought shirts and bumper stickers and distributed them to friends and family, spent hours upon day talking to people about him, and that I’m not going to vote for him? Because I’m quite sure I atleast make up a majority of the Ron Paul supporters. We love our man, and he can not fail if we do our jobs. A poll taken yesterday shows Ron Paul at 10% in Iowa, thats up 6% in 4 days, while Huckabee DROPPED 4 points. That is 1.25% in 1 day. What does that tell you? Polls are only reliable as to what the caller makes them. And usually, polls do tell the tale of politics, but my argument is that this year they don’t. Cell phones, 1st time voters, independents, Ron Paul really has tapped into the frustration of people. Even Trevor Lymann has never voted and is new to the process. So, with Paul at 10% with just traditional republicans who voted for Bush in ‘04, I would say he’s actually near 15-20%, which is just enough to be 2nd or 3rd in Iowa. 2nd or 3rd will be huge, don’t give up hope fellow brothers and sisters, we need Ron Paul or our country is collapsing. Do not let discouragement become surrender, just continue to spread the word as you have so greatly done in the past months.
December 26th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Why you always haten you say the same thing every article man. I don’t even need to defend my man Ron. It’s time, in a week we’ll find out who’s right.
December 26th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
Your update picture implies anonymous post. You have my e-mail address feel free to contact me if you want.
There is one huge problem with your polling stance. A large number of Ron Paul supporters dropped out of the voting system. Or had been in a different party in 04. Of the Ron Paul supporters I know (about 67) three quarters of them had been either non voters or different party in 2004. These people would not show up in a poll.
Now for grass roots volunteers just check this.
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/
There is 85,000 volunteers who have signed up for meetup and go around their local area and wave signs or go door to door or put out ads in local newspapers.
Or perhaps this will do.
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2007/12/21/straw-poll-dec-21-jan-4/
It is possible to spam that a few times but you will not have a bot on that poll putting up 1k votes per day. There is a security question so at most each person could only minimally spam.
That straw poll is probably a bit biased for Ron Paul because it is on the Internet. At the same time would it be more than 10% biased? 20% biased?
Are the polls that show support from Republicans that voted in 2004 biased the other way? Why would the Democratic side follow the Scientific polls and the rest of the Republicans follow the Scientific polls except for Ron Paul?
Personally I think Ron Paul will win in a landslide in several states. Alaska for instance will be a blow out victory for him. Same with New Hampshire.
December 26th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Hello, Justin. As a Ron Paul freak, I appreciate your sensible reportage and commentary on his campaign thus far. The current entry one is not much different in that regard; respectfully, however, I believe that your argument/theory is weak in a few areas:
1) It assumes that the Republican “base,” i.e., pro-war, neocon, pro-bush, etc., is even nearly as large and unfractured as it was when Bush was running, without considering the approval rating of Congress being a small fraction of what it was in ‘03 and ‘04. (Which tells me that Democrats AND Republicans are much more “disenfrachised” for this election cycle than the last one. Also: How many Republicans did Dean pick up back then? Paul attracts gobs of Indies and erstwhile Dems.)
2) It assumes that rapid-fire, hit-piece interviews like Russert’s — an obviously calculated smear focusing on hearsay and 20-year-old quotes out of context and ignoring monetary policy and the Iraq war — are going to trump either Paul’s Congressional record or the well-sourced online rebuttals that followed such media attacks.
3) It assumes that the fate of the Dean campaign fate is a worthy harbinger of that of the Ron Paul campaign.
4) And of course it neglects to mention what should be cited as the most authoritative clue, if there ever was one, to the outcome of the primaries: straw polls, and Ron Paul’s domination thereof.
I know you’re not necessarily buttressing your argument with those poll results, yet neither do you mention why Paul supporters scoff at them — for example, the most recent AP/IPSOS poll and others that don’t even include him in the metric. These same land line polls — the ones that tap the ever-shrinking base of registered Republicans who voted for Bush in ‘04, and who are usually not connected to the Internet — are sure to reflect a negative prognostication necessary to superficially debunk the sentiments of Paul’s very real and very much politically active base; but they don’t stand in the wake of even the shallowest scrutiny.
Using the Dean campaign’s failure as a harbinger of the Paul campaign’s fate is a bit fallacious. Ron Paul, on ethical grounds, is practically smear-proof — duck feathers. Even when he is misquoted or even lied about, he rarely protests the charges; he doesn’t need to; he lets his record and his supporters defend his virtue with ease. When has he ever flip-flopped on war, or on anything else, for that matter? (He has changed his view on the death penalty, going from pro to anti, but that’s basically all there is — hardly dirt.) Where was Dean on Clinton’s wars, or the Bushes’ wars? Did he base his positions on grounds of principle, or on political grounds? Was his guide the Constitution, or his party and ideology? Did he base his economic platform on ideas that would strengthen the monetary unit and lower inflation, or did he have no problem printing more fiat, collecting higher taxes, and regulating trade in the effort to pay for some grandiose and unconstitutional environmental and social bureaucracies out of the taxpayers’ pockets?
People who bother to do their due dilligence are seeing through those who are weak in character and wavering of principle. Which, I believe, is why Ron Paul keeps gaining support despite similar smear attempts that hurt Dean’s campaign. Simply put, dirt doesn’t stick to Ron Paul.
Although I know you’re not purposefully, spitefully downplaying his success, I believe you’re underestimating the power of a message based, unwaveringly and unapologetically, on constitutional principles. It’s no more a leap of faith to judge a candidate’s chance of success something based on message and principle than it is to trust the credibility or effectiveness of “national polls” or corporate media smear-hoaxes.
The “Meet the Press” interview, while a savvy piece of corporate hatchetry if you will, arguably solidified and recruited more support than it would have taken away. Well sourced rebuttals of the Russert interrogation and other smears are widely disseminated almost immediately upon conclusion of each attack. (Just Google the appropriate key words for each smear.) Which is why the same people who haven’t bought the corporate media lies all this time don’t appear to be buying the type of snake oil being peddled by corporate media hacks of even the caliber of Russert. If that wasn’t true, then why are donations still coming in from new donors, and why are even his “national poll” numbers, as unreliable as they are, on the rise?
December 26th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Paul has more financial momentum than Dean had.
Dean raised $15 million in his 4th quarter. Source:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/01/01/elec04.prez.dean.fundraising/index.html
Ron Paul has raised nearly $19 million in his 4th quarter. Source:
http://www.ronpaul2008.com
December 26th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
One major thing that is different in this primary is this: there is not an attractive, attention-grabbing, trustworthy opponent to Ron Paul. The other candidates are seriously flawed and this is creating a perfect storm for the candidate with independent ideas to win.
Here are the shallow, simplistic summations that for better or worse are the things many people have on their mind as they choose their elected leader (that I would apologize for writing here but I’m over it):
-Giuliani is a double divorcee with a strange name that they can’t spell. It won’t bother some people, but it will be a deal breaker for most. Especially since this person is supposed to represent an ideal american.
-Romney is a mormon. It shouldn’t matter, but it does big time. It says “a very big portion of my way of life is foreign and unknown to you.”
-Huckabee represents the things that people are mad at Bush for doing. ex: growing the size of government like a democrat. Then there’s the whole televangelist “I think I can sum up you and your religion in 30seconds or less and lock up your vote and mind with a subliminal image of a cross that miraculously appeared perfectly backlit and centered up in the video that was an accident. Bullsh it. That may work to get prayer line money from old ladies but its insulting to Americans and Christianity. The bible belt states may be conned into it initially because they think voting against him means you don’t love Jesus, but a lot of the country will not be hypnotized so easily. Especially when they realize there is someone who shares your beliefs and is not making a mockery of it: Ron Paul
Ron Paul has a clear message that makes sense to people: All the problems of this country stem from deviations from Constitutional law. Uphold the Constitution of the US! It’s so simple, but so hard for current politicians to swallow. Federal programs that redistribute wealth according to political whim: unconstitutional. IRS: unconstitutional. Militarily occupying foreign countries without declaration of war: unconstitutional.
The founding fathers anticipated all of these issues, they’re NOT new. (for proof, read the Federalist Papers from 1787 for the most brilliant writing in history). The biggest warning they gave was concerning an unconcerned citizenry. That is when the politicians are unchecked by the people, they will stray from the constitution, and they will get away with anything. It is our job to elect someone who has ALWAYS voted with constitutional law in mind. That is Ron Paul, and he rocks.
He will strive to:
-End foreign entanglements (nation building wars)
-Keep a strong military to be used to DEFEND our country
-End the Federal Reserve that keeps devaluing our dollar (that means if you have 10grand in savings this year, you will be able to buy 10grand worth of goods 5 years from now and not three or four thousand dollars worth (or worse) because of inflation. They don’t tell you it’s you that is responsible for the government’s debt. Think raising taxes on top of inflation will fix the problem? Vote hillary. I don’t think so. You have to solve the problem with Ron Paul.
-Protect your freedoms and eliminate crap like the Patriot Act. Do you want to be jailed for being a political dissident? With unconstitutional federal powers like this you’re asking for it.
-Fix healthcare by making it a well-run, freedom of choice private enterprise just like all successful programs run by-the-people. Not the government.
Vote Ron Paul and keep your country.
December 26th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
All this pre-game hyperbole was entertaining for a while, but now it is growing tiresome. Who knows how accurate the polls are? They’ve been miserably wrong before.
There is one thing, however, I am quite certain of: the rEVOLution will turn out to vote. Every one. And then we’ll know how many of us there really are.
Ron Paul ‘08!
December 26th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
I just erased my cookies, temporary files, history and form data. The AOL poll still recognizes my computer even though I took my laptop from my home to my office.
December 26th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
Ron Paul has the best policy for this country hands down.
As a supporter I am too busy trying to promote and share his liberty message to worry about how he is doing in any particular survey.
Say he were low in these surveys they take … so I should try less hard?
Say he were high in these surveys they take … so I should try less hard (as he’s winning)?
The answer for a Ron Paul supporter is to just try as hard as they can to get the message out there period.
December 26th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
i can not wait for reading your article after a landslide win at iowa,of course cnn and fox will invite the same 21 people and will try to explain ron paul did not win this poll ,what will be your excuse will you still send him to tird party……..
either you had to write this nonsense article for a paycheck or you just plaine ignorant about reality about the revolution by the way i am a hungarian canadian we have in my countries both in hungary and canada (and of course the whole europa) ONLY RON PAUL supporters guess why have a nice day and prepare your winning article about ron paul we wont let you down
December 26th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Just wanted to point out to all those that want to say the poll is obviously being spammed:
As of 1pm PST there’s a total of 129,500 Republican votes and 115,500 Democrat votes. It’s improbable that this poll is being spammed based on that outcome alone, unless Democrats are spamming for their candidates as well.
But just for fun, let’s make the BOLD ASSUMPTION that every single Rep vote above the total Dem count is a spam (129,500 - 115,500 = 14,000) and that all spam went to Ron Paul. We then remove that total from Ron Paul’s total count, RP still has 7,100 more votes than the runner up Guiliani. That’s 33% more folks.
Looking at the individual states:
NH - (Republican) 1,069
NH - (Democrat) 840
1069 - 840 = 229
NH - (Ron Paul 39%) 417
NH - (McCain 22%) 235
Removing 229 votes from Paul buts him at 18% and a dead heat with Romney. Again assuming that all votes above the dem total is spam and that they all went only to Ron Paul.
How about Iowa?
IA - (Republican) 1,253
IA - (Democrat) 1,495 *those naughty dem spambots*
1069 - 1495 = -242
We can either give RP 242 votes or assume no correction. I’ll be conservative and assume no correction leaving Ron Paul with a huge margin of victory.
December 26th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
[...] at Donklephant says what needs to be said about Ron [...]
December 26th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
Rob - good observations.
I am curious why there is only selective spamming going on in the AOL poll. Why create a 15% lead in California and only a 2% lead in South Carolina (one of the first primaries)?
Why not spam him into the lead in New York and New Jersey? Those states would be easier than Florida.
Why are all the southern states so close with Huckabee? If this poll is being spammed, the spammers should be doing a better job.
December 26th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
70% of the entire US population is on the Internet:
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats2.htm
Why is the “real world” in such a disconnect with the “fake” one of the Internet, when 70% of Americans are on it, and using it?
I should be happy about this though, finally, the death of bullshit fake media finally. No more lies about why we go to war. No more touting the “new economy” or telling gullible fools to buy at every dip from 2001 to 2003. No more “pundits” claiming that the housing market is secure in 2005.
Die media, DIE - and die quickly. We’re all sick of being lied to about everything from the economy to our foreign policy. I mean “dey hate us fer our freedum” - not because we overthrew the Iranian Democracy in 1953 with Operation Ajax and installed a police state dictator or anything like that.
December 26th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Comparisons to the Dean campaign are amusing to read…just very little to digest. Poll are taken to influence public opinion - nothing more, nothing less.
December 26th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
From today’s $555B omnibus bill:
For expenses necessary for grants to enable the President to carry out the provisions of section 23 of the Arms Export Control Act, $4,588,325,000: Provided, That of the funds appropriated under this heading, not less than $2,400,000,000 shall be available for grants only for Israel, and not less than $1,300,000,000 shall be made available for grants only for Egypt: Provided further, That the funds appropriated by this paragraph for Israel shall be disbursed within 30 days of the enactment of this Act.
Can anyone justify this? Within 30 days? We are 9Trillion in debt!!!
December 26th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
Psssst! Justin, just between you and me, I have to tell you that you’re record is broken.
While we’re chatting here online, in the real world RP supporters are gathering signatures, running for delegate slots in GOP primaries, attending precinct meeting, etc. In other words they’re doing the same thing Goldwater and McGovern supporters were doing to change their respective parties that their supporters took over. So why is Ron Paul any different?
Does he have a lot of support from hardcore GOP voters? Probably not. That’s why you have to grow the electoral base. That’s why you organize and get peopole to switch their registration to the GOP. That’s why you get members of the LP and CP to help out. That’s why you appeal to people who’ve dropped out of politics. You can’t win any other way.
Maybe RP’s butt will be kicked by Feb. 5. Fine then. That’s just means we pick up the rubble after the GOP is crushed in Novermber of next year. Lot people who have worked this camapaign are becoming activists. They’re announcing runs for Congress. They’re taking over GOP committee slots. As I’ve said before the GOP is a dying political party. Literally. There’s no reason why Paul supporters, like those of Goldwater and McGovern before him cannot change a major party. We’re not talking the Communists here.
December 26th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
“Howard Dean had more money”?? That makes you an idiot. Ron Paul is approaching 20 million dollars this quarter alone with NO special interest or PAC money !! “Howard Dean had more support on the internet”?? LOL That makes you an even bigger idiot.; Do some reasearch before you write an article and make a fool of yourself.
December 26th, 2007 at 7:11 pm
Ron Paul is going to win, that’s my prediction.
December 26th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
I think there is a key difference between Dean and Paul. I think if you look at the polls from the 03/04 primaries I think key differences. Dean was popular with the people who had voted in the previous election. Kerry on the other hand was not. These were people that had voted for Gore four years before (considering the polls are done based on the prior elections voters). Kerry had the support where it mattered. From the voters that were going to vote. The polling numbers prior to the election actually made no difference. The vote was what won it. Dean is nothing like Paul. Dean appeared the winner. Paul does not. It is more likely someone is going to vote if their candidate is they think they are going to lose then if they think they are going to win (in the early part of the election). After that people just start band-wagoning.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm
December 26th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Ron Paul acknowledges that he’s probably not the best spokesman for his own cause. That’s part of what endears him to many of us. But he DOES know what he’s talking about — on America’s proper role in the world, on trade, on immigration, on health care, on fiscal policy, on individual responsibility. Americans are listening, and I predict that Paul and his supporters are gonna shock the world! Will the “Ron Paul Revolution” last beyond him? Every student of history knows that the people who create a revolution seldom are around to see its succesful conclusion. I see so many posts from people who say “Dr. Paul cured my apathy.” Mine, too. There’s no telling how many of these people will get their political feet wet in 2008, running for city councils, school boards and county commissions. The revolution has just begun.
December 27th, 2007 at 2:40 am
Dean had more internet support? Care to point to some references Justin? stats? anything at all?
December 27th, 2007 at 9:14 am
There is not as much in common between the Paul campaign and the Dean campaign as you might suspect. Dean had a great deal of help from the mainstream media and from the monied special interests; Paul has neither. His support is almost all individual and those individuals who give money are most assuredly going to go vote.
December 27th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
I agree, action is required.
You can track *some* of the action being taken at http://ronpaulreveres.com/canvass_totals , a website put up to help track door-to-door canvassing. The goal is get to people to register republican (for those states that require it) and to get the word out about Ron Paul’s message so that people will be inspired to actually go to the polls.
Further action: these folks have decided to move to NH to campaign full time:
http://operationlivefreeordie.com/ and campaign for Ron Paul.
http://www.nhpr.org/node/14331
There’s even been volunteer phone banking to call voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as co-ordinated letter writing campaigns.
http://www.louislogan.com/letters/index.asp
That sure seems like alot of action and people *are* participating. Turnout at primaries is traditionally low, so it just doesnt take that many people to make a big impact.
December 27th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Boy someone must be worried. What a “smear job” this is. The writer obviously know nothing about the Ron Paul campaign or who his supporters are.
December 27th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
The internet was also a different place even just 4 years ago. 4 years ago things like Myspace and facebook and youtube weren’t made yet. MySpace started in August 2003. Facebook didn’t start until February 2004 and by then Kerry was killing the primaries. Youtube didn’t get created until 2005. Now they are the biggest things on the internet. And more social networking sites like these have been dominating the internet in only the past 3 or 4 years. If Howard Dean had the tools Ron Paul had today it would be a completely different story. And it’s hard to imagine Ron Paul having this much success without YouTube
December 27th, 2007 at 6:57 pm
Howard Dean who is that? :)
I was on the internet in 2004, I don’t remember massive viral video’s, massive grassroots fundraising. And Howard dean raised how much money from the grassroots for 2004?
I only tuned into the election after John Kerry was chosen as the democrat.
I imagine many where just like me.
You sir fail to realize, the GOP & converting democrat base has engaged way sooner than last primary, and less then 10% voted because Bush had nobody running against him, so what was the point.
You Sir, don understand how much really has changed this time out. And I can’t wait until the Iowa an NH primaries. When all these expert pundits will be proven to know less than the common person hooked up to the net.
The next attack is this: “He can’t win the general election”
December 28th, 2007 at 12:40 am
[...] The Reality Of Ron Paul’s Support Donklephant - 12/26/2007 [...]
December 28th, 2007 at 12:43 am
“The next attack is this: ‘He can’t win the general election’”
So? He can’t.
December 28th, 2007 at 12:44 am
I support Ron Paul, and I completely agree with you.
I think after this run is done the best thing Ron Paul can do is retire from congress and become a political pundit (not sure if anybody would hire him). But he would stay relevant and would not be forgotten. Hopefully 4 years later when the republicans are putting their best forward to oppose the democratic president, there will be a Ron Paul type of voice out there. Hopefully that canidate will have a bit more energy and more political savvy. I say that with no offense towards Dr. Paul
Dr. Paul didn’t cure my apathy, his supporters did.
December 28th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
The one thing that is different in this election: people are enraged on a massive scale. Those who persist in saying RP doesn’t have a chance are oblivious to this fact, and apparently don’t have a clue as to why millions of people are so mad. They also don’t seem to have a grasp on the numbers of newly registered Republicans.
December 29th, 2007 at 3:42 pm
[...] The Reality Of Ron Paul’s Support Donklephant - 12/26/2007 [...]
December 30th, 2007 at 1:37 pm
The difference between Ron Paul and Howard Dean, is that Ron Paul is a man of principle, and Howard Dean was just another power-seeker.
-jcr