Could Ron Paul Win 3rd In Iowa?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Huckabee, Iowa, Money, New Hampshire, Republicans, Romney, Ron PaulI think it’s actually realistic. Here’s why…
Romney and Huckabee have 1st and 2nd locked up. The order in which they’ll finish is still up in the air, but I have a feeling that Huckabee could grab 1st because people just don’t seem to like Romney that much. Still, he has spent a ton of money and I wouldn’t be surprised if his organization ultimately trumps Huckabee’s. After all, Romney is an extremely successful business man too, so he knows quite a bit about getting results.
So why Paul? Because Giuliani, Thompson and McCain have all but abandoned Iowa. Well, Thompson has been there for the past two weeks, but Paul has been there a lot longer. And 3rd place is a realistic choice for a people-powered, insurgent candidacy. That’s where Dean finished in 2004 and Paul definitely looks to follow in his footsteps. However, the outcome would be much better for Paul because he wasn’t expected to do so well. It’s all about expectations folks, and if Paul can pull off a 3rd in Iowa that would definitely boost his chances in New Hampshire too, where he has the greatest likelihood of pulling off a massive upset. Honestly, I think the story there is going to be McCain’s reemergence as the front runner in the campaign, but there’s still hope in the Granite State for Paul, especially if his Paulites can get out the vote.
The biggest question mark? Paul’s positions. Sure, Paulites are incredibly passionate about the constitution and their candidate’s strong stance on it, but that doesn’t mean GOP primary voters are. Otherwise Paul would have seen a major uptick in his support by now.
Think I’m just being anti-Paul? Well, no, because for evidence of this GOP mindset just look at how quickly Huckabee rose in the polls. That’s the GOP primary voter for you, and they’re just not in line with Paul’s core philosophies. They’re abandoned Libertarian philosophy is exchange for the “compassionate” spend!spend!spend! ways of Bush and that’s not going for this primary season. Otherwise, Huckabee would never have gained as much traction as he has.
We’ll know soon enough.
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January 2nd, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Nice article. Third in Iowa would certainly be a great victory for Paul. I am not sure we can trust the media anymore.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:54 pm
A good analysis. I hate to think that “Republicans” would buy into Huckster’s blatant religious BS and his “Bush spend spend spend” fiscal foolhardiness – but it is shameful and true.
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Well said, Justin.
Spoken like a true Poll Smoker.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:14 pm
One thing you forget – in Iowa you can switch parties the day of the caucus and in N.H., the 45% of voters who are Independents can vote either party.
Pual gets much more support from those not polled than the 8-10% likely GOP voters the get gets from polls in the first two states.
Throw in anti-war liberal Democrats, disinfranchised GOP’ers who have not voted in a while, people who have never voted but will now for Paul, the huge support Paul has from young people who have never voted, Independents, anarchists, athiests and agnostics who have been out of the political process, some members of the Christian Right, Constitutionalists, Libertarians, 9/11 Truthers, African Americans (Paul polls higher with African Americans than any other GOP candidate), White Nationalists, Paleoconservatives and Paul will double the “likely Republican voter” polls.
Are all his suporters saints? No, but it is probably the largest and most diverse group of supporters any presideential candidate has ever had.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Huckabee’s rise came after the valuevoters straw poll that he won, and the media went ape over him. (amazing spin considering this was only about 400 people), McCain’s resurgence has also come after an old media blitz of the candidate.
Ron Paul will probably never get favorable old media attention, because they like the big spenders, but there is this 50% of people that don’t normally vote. I’m inclined to think that they are more libertarian leaning, disgusted with the system types. Jaded as they are, most will not be easily convinced to bother voting, but if they can be convinced, who knows.
Aren’t you getting feed up with people telling you you have to use a certain type of light bulb, wear seat belts, don’t smoke in a your own business, or Apartment, or Car, etc. Aren’t you getting fed up with Policing the world – so much so that John McCain sounds like he is running for president of Pakistan ?
You just never know what people will do.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:22 pm
The sad/funny thing is.. if you ask a lot of the people who voted on a phone poll for hukabee they wouldn’t know what his positions were a year ago vs his positions today (they’re quite different). By and large the voters don’t care about the positions. They vote for who they see on TV the most.
I want to see Paul in the mix because he’ll force the others to discuss real issues and make some big promises. (hukabee wants to get rid of the IRS remember? teehhee..)
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Near as I can tell, no one has anything “locked up” because no Ballots have been cast in any state. Don’t put too much faith in pre election opinion polls, they never elected anyone.
January 2nd, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Justin, I have really enjoyed your articles about Ron Paul. I think you’ve been objective and fair and realistic about the campaign from the start. You told us when he was bad and when he was good and today is no different. You’re absolutely correct, Paul’s postions in an article or 30 sec sound bites don’t appeal to a lot of people and do make him sound out of touch. Most Americans today aren’t going to take the time to research a candidate the MSM has already labeled. And the fact of the matter is WE don’t know how many of us are out here. Are we just the 150,000 donors, or is there 5,000,000? I’m very excited about tomorrow. I hope he does finish at least third so the message gets out, but I’m very proud of myself and all the Ron Paul supporters for working so hard, for sacrificing their money and time to try and get this country back where it should be.
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
“The biggest question mark? Paul’s positions. Sure, Paulites are incredibly passionate about the constitution and their candidate’s strong stance on it, but that doesn’t mean GOP primary voters are. Otherwise Paul would have seen a major uptick in his support by now.”
uptick?? QUADRUPLING YOUR FUNDRAISING IN A SINGLE QUARTER IS NOT AN UPTICK?????
here is PROOF that those polls are utterly worthless:
Paul supposedly polls in single digits yet raised nearly 20 million this quarter from over 100,000 donors, while Romney has consistently held at 20-30% and only managed to raise 10 in a quarter. maybe the real fact is these polls are drawn from a very very small pool of people that are all in the same demographic.
thats like saying ‘we did a nationwide poll of over a million people (all of whom were specifically chosen from towns of 5000 people or less) and the results are in- 99% of America is white! thanks for tuning in to FOX News, always fair and balanced.”
hasn’t the real test always been “put your money where your mouth is” ?
Let me tell you how many marches i’ve seen in vegas for romney or huckabee or giuliani or mccain- not a one. i have seen 3 different ron paul marches all with at least 2-300 people, even in small rural towns i’ve heard of gatherings of 50-100 people on their main streets.
THE POLLS ARE CRAP. Just wait until you see how stupid FOX feels when they excluded the guy that outraised everyone and just placed 3rd in IA
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
3rd is really what most of us realist in the campaign are hoping for. We would be delighted to place higher but 3rd place would be enough to crush the strangle hold the pollsters and mass media have have on public opinion.
January 2nd, 2008 at 2:31 pm
I think 3rd is likely and 1st or 2nd is entirely possible.
3 Factors to consider:
1. Turn out – ordinarily about 7% in Iowa, but RP’s loyal base should turn out in far greater numbers.
2. Independents – According to the Des Moines Register’s latest poll, RP polls about 18% for independents – but the number was grossly underrepresented in the sample.
3. Democrates – Announced just today that the GOP membership increased by about 3% in December. This may be the evidence to confirm the rumors that many Dem’s are for RP.
If all 3 factors coalesce, RP could win Iowa and blow the minds of the American public and pundits.
No matter what, if he takes 1st to 3rd, he will draw far more support moving into the other early states because he will no longer be written off as a ‘fringe candidate’ who ‘can’t win’.
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Iowa Caucus Results:
Ron Paul………….. 30%
Mike Huckabee …. 26%
Mitt Romney …….. 20%
John McCain …….. 14%
Giuliani ……………. 5%
Thompson ………… 3%
Top two might be switched around…but I can hope.
January 2nd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
“Sure, Paulites are incredibly passionate about the constitution and their candidate’s strong stance on it, but that doesn’t mean GOP primary voters are.”
To the tune of 19.5 million dollars maybe?
70% of the US population is on the Internet, but somehow, the Internet isn’t real, and the media that lied us into Iraq is.
I hope people are watching the vote closely, because I simply don’t trust our election process any more.
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
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January 2nd, 2008 at 4:33 pm
If after finishing 1st in most straw polls and bringing in 10 tons of cash in the 4th quarter isn’t good enough to get a debate spot from Fox News, then you don’t have to be biased to see that something is rotten in ALL the corporate media. Fox news has no room left to criticize the rest of the media, because they are even worse than the rest since Ron Paul started to debate. 6 Months ago, I loved Fox and didn’t know who Ron pual was–now I am boycotting Fox (just like when they urged us to boycott France) and am counting the days to caucus. Fox news is a bunch of cowards and all media outlets are looking like propaganda machines! I hope this motivates a few more people to show up for ROn Paul!! Army Ranger for Paul!
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Let me add that while I am the only person on my list who donated to Paul in the 4th quarter, most people I know are Paul supporters. I know 13 people going to caucus for Paul in Iowa and Nevada– and none of them contributed. I hope that’s the same across the board!
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Who counts the votes? Voting is not important. Counting the votes is the only thing. That is what the public is not capable of understanding.
Ron Paul will come in fifth at 4 to 8 percent. What is the reason? Because that is what those that own the media and count the votes desire.
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Without getting into a discussion on the merits of Paul’s ideas on government, consider the facts as they are now:
Pros:
Raises most money, wins online polls, has largest crowds at events, has largest crowds at other candidate’s events
Cons:
Polls low in scientific telephone polls
The key difference between Paul’s positive & negative outcomes so far is the ability of supporters to initiate the process. For each positive trait supporters were free to cast their vote in the various gauges of popularity, relying the instant communication afforded by the vast Paul network on the web. For the lone negative, Paulians are not free to initiate a vote, they must wait to be happened upon by the pollster.
This is perhaps another reason that the outcome is more than likely going to be different than polls predict. The way these polls are structured, they do a pretty good job putting a feeler out to see which way the status quo is bending. With Paul obviously a devious revolutionary and disrupter of the status quo, I’m happy to conjecture that the polls are seriously underselling Paul’s chances. Support the troops by bringing their sexy asses home.
3nd or 4th in Iowa, 1st or 2nd in New Hampshire
January 2nd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Dr. Paul will take 1st place in Iowa, and here’s why:
The other candidate’s supporters are unethusiastic. Remember that these are the same Republicans who voted in 2004 for incumbent and unopposed President Bush, so that vote is going to be carved up among the other candidates besides Paul. And Paul has all of the independents, libertarians, disgruntled Republicans, and cross-over Dems, in addition to newcomers, all to himself.
The base of the GOP is already taking another look at McCain. This is going to hurt Thompson and Romney significantly. In fact, I predict McCain will finish 3rd and completely turn the race upside down with Huckster coming in 2nd.
Alan Keyes and Duncan Hunter will take away just enough religious right votes away from Huckster to knock him out of first place.
There won’t be any Dean screams here, no YEEAARRGH moments from Paul, but there will be heads exploding from Fox News. Paul’s supporters are fired up and they’ll walk though lava to vote for him.
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Ron Paul has seen a major uptick in his support — from 1-2% in the “scientific” polls to 7-11%. That doesn’t sound like much, but that’s among the hardcore, old-line Republican voters. His uptick in support among the general population has been much stronger, as seen by his Q4 fundraising almost quadrupling his Q3 numbers.
I would be very surprised if Ron Paul finishes lower than third in Iowa. When he comes in ahead of McCain, that’s going to be the wake up call that New Hampshire independents need to consider Ron Paul a serious contender.
Then all bets are off. Rather than defaulting to McCain because Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson are all deeply flawed, New Hampshire voters will go all in for a true limited government Constitutionalist.
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Could Ron Paul Win 3rd In Iowa? No freaking way! He is a fringe, long shot, dark horse candidate that is bat shlt crazy. If Ron Paul can win 3rd in Iowa then that means the media has been lying to us and I don’t think that is possible. We have all seen the polls and the polls can not be faked. Ron Paul has a few kids spamming websites trying to make it look like there is a large following. Total bs, everyone know America is the policeman of the world and that is the way our founding fathers wanted it!
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:15 pm
“So why Paul? Because Giuliani, Thompson and McCain have all but abandoned Iowa.”
Here is the real bs to this article. Ron Paul will win 3rd because the others gave it to him!?! Or maybe Ron Paul actually has a bigger following than those tools.
I agree with what Vicky Says:
January 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Well said, Justin.
Spoken like a true Poll Smoker.
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Justin, one of your better pieces. However there is one problem with polling in Iowa or anywhere else. It doesn’t take into consideration first time voters, or voters who have gotten back into the fold and are going to vote this round. I am going to tell you right now Ron Paul has a huge number of people who haven’t voted in 10-20 years, not to mention the 45 and under ground that mostly have cell phones and do not get polled. Ron Paul will have a strong 3rd place finish and could even knock on the door of 2nd. However McCain is smoke and mirrors media hyped candidate just like Huckabee – Ron Paul will win NH.
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
I can’t wait to find out what happens next. THEN we’ll really have something to talk about.
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Whether Republican voters agree or disagree with his positions is not that relevant. In Paul’s Congressional district, he has won with increasing margins because voters TRUST him to do what he says. His voting record in Congress says it all. No Republican — after looking objectively at the other candidates’ records — can trust them the same way they trust Paul. Trust is as important as the issues.
January 2nd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Sounds like you like polls. Bad news: The Pollster Empire dies tomorrow–many will be celebrating!
January 2nd, 2008 at 11:35 pm
It will be interesting to see what the Paulistas are saying after the caucuses and primaries if the pollsters are closer to being right than they are. For the non-conspiracy theorists among you who are actually interested in what goes on with polls try pollster.com, where you’ll find the guy who used to run his own blog Mystery Pollster.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:23 am
The only questions remains, will there be vote fraud or not? If the Iowa caucus only reports percent number instead of actual figures – it’ll be a tip-off that the mob is fulling in control of altering outcomes.
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:03 am
Ron Paul, 2008, FTW. We are tired of the lame stream media, the yellow journalism, the lies, the wars, the broken dollar, the identity politics and the military industrial complex. America is waking up to freedom and liberty. Its our last chance to have them again if we chose to walk with Ron Paul. If we don’t chose him, we will become more authoritarian and America will no longer be what the founders wanted it to be and it will become a hell on earth with a dropping standard of living.
THIRD!? More like FIRST. Unless Iowa is full of war mongering tax and spend morons who hate gun ownership and the constitution… Is it?