THIRD!? More like FIRST. Unless Iowa is full of war mongering tax and spend morons who hate gun ownership and the constitution… Is it?

I agree with what Vicky Says:

January 2nd, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Well said, Justin.

Spoken like a true Poll Smoker.

I would be very surprised if Ron Paul finishes lower than third in Iowa. When he comes in ahead of McCain, that’s going to be the wake up call that New Hampshire independents need to consider Ron Paul a serious contender.

Then all bets are off. Rather than defaulting to McCain because Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson are all deeply flawed, New Hampshire voters will go all in for a true limited government Constitutionalist.

The other candidate’s supporters are unethusiastic. Remember that these are the same Republicans who voted in 2004 for incumbent and unopposed President Bush, so that vote is going to be carved up among the other candidates besides Paul. And Paul has all of the independents, libertarians, disgruntled Republicans, and cross-over Dems, in addition to newcomers, all to himself.

The base of the GOP is already taking another look at McCain. This is going to hurt Thompson and Romney significantly. In fact, I predict McCain will finish 3rd and completely turn the race upside down with Huckster coming in 2nd.

Alan Keyes and Duncan Hunter will take away just enough religious right votes away from Huckster to knock him out of first place.

There won’t be any Dean screams here, no YEEAARRGH moments from Paul, but there will be heads exploding from Fox News. Paul’s supporters are fired up and they’ll walk though lava to vote for him.

Pros:
Raises most money, wins online polls, has largest crowds at events, has largest crowds at other candidate’s events

Cons:
Polls low in scientific telephone polls

The key difference between Paul’s positive & negative outcomes so far is the ability of supporters to initiate the process. For each positive trait supporters were free to cast their vote in the various gauges of popularity, relying the instant communication afforded by the vast Paul network on the web. For the lone negative, Paulians are not free to initiate a vote, they must wait to be happened upon by the pollster.

This is perhaps another reason that the outcome is more than likely going to be different than polls predict. The way these polls are structured, they do a pretty good job putting a feeler out to see which way the status quo is bending. With Paul obviously a devious revolutionary and disrupter of the status quo, I’m happy to conjecture that the polls are seriously underselling Paul’s chances. Support the troops by bringing their sexy asses home.

3nd or 4th in Iowa, 1st or 2nd in New Hampshire

Ron Paul will come in fifth at 4 to 8 percent. What is the reason? Because that is what those that own the media and count the votes desire.

To the tune of 19.5 million dollars maybe?

70% of the US population is on the Internet, but somehow, the Internet isn’t real, and the media that lied us into Iraq is.

I hope people are watching the vote closely, because I simply don’t trust our election process any more.

Ron Paul………….. 30%
Mike Huckabee …. 26%
Mitt Romney …….. 20%
John McCain …….. 14%
Giuliani ……………. 5%
Thompson ………… 3%

Top two might be switched around…but I can hope.

3 Factors to consider:

1. Turn out – ordinarily about 7% in Iowa, but RP’s loyal base should turn out in far greater numbers.

2. Independents – According to the Des Moines Register’s latest poll, RP polls about 18% for independents – but the number was grossly underrepresented in the sample.

3. Democrates – Announced just today that the GOP membership increased by about 3% in December. This may be the evidence to confirm the rumors that many Dem’s are for RP.

If all 3 factors coalesce, RP could win Iowa and blow the minds of the American public and pundits.

No matter what, if he takes 1st to 3rd, he will draw far more support moving into the other early states because he will no longer be written off as a ‘fringe candidate’ who ‘can’t win’.