Linked by Dr. Pat Santy, who does not concur with the diagnosis, but agrees with the prognosis.

Cross-posted at Donklephant.

Divided and Balanced.? Now that is fair….

McCain has moved to the forefront despite these people’s wishes because the majority of the party is tired of of being led around by a powerful minority block. The extreme minority is going to “prove” to the majority that they cannot retain power without them and will sacrifice any meaningful shot at the presidency and hopes for the senate to do it.

The majority was thinking that after years of being led around like a blind man, that they would snap the leash and get their dog to do what it wanted for a change; the minority said not so fast.

The result is not an obituary for the GOP, but a game of chicken to see who will blink first.

My prediction, despite the proclivity to mess up even the easiest election, the GOP will lose because the extreme right will stay home this year. They won’t blink and the moderate majority in the GOP will cave after the election and fall meekly in line to regain power.

The extreme right is counting on the more moderate majority to not split off, and as embarrassed as many of these people are by the last 8 years, they will not have the will to say no when the extremists demand even more power.

Say what you will about extremists, but they are passionate and patient–a deadly combination.

There was a saying in the Ike election referring to Korea: “The ones that got us in will not be the ones to get us out” The Dems got us into Korea and the Reps (under Ike) got us out. In Vietnam the Dems got us in and the Reps (under Nixon) got us out. In Iraq, the Reps got us in and I think that voters intuitively believe it will have to be the Dems to get us out.

Josh,
Maybe. I’m not sure who it helps or hurts. I only care if it has a chance to win. I’ve been thinking about the possibility, and will have more to say on it next week.

Some commentators raised the possibility of a third-party entry in the presidential race. This might actually help the GOP, by giving erstwhile Republican voters fed up with the party and/or dissatisfied with McCain a more palatable “protest vote” option than crossing over to the Dem candidate. (Somehow I doubt many Dems would cross over or vote third even if they are unhappy with their nominee, which is why I suspect this would favor the GOP.)

“They could have expunged McCain from the party, the way the Democrats bailed on Joe Lieberman…” - JTD

Well, it is not like they didn’t try, and are still trying.

“The republican party is supposedly in demise because they are nominating a more moderate cadidate for president…” - JTD

mmmm… not quite. The Republican party is in demise because the vast majority in this country is rejecting the idea of continuing to fight a war that should not have been waged, and told the price for that forever war is sacrificing privacy, habeas corpus, surrendering the notion that the rule of law applies to the president and vice president, piling a trillion dollars of debt on our children and requires the torturing of detainees in our name. That would be the reason.

It is just icing on the cake that the vocal minority has decided to take itself hostage by pointing a gun at it’s own head and threatening to pull the trigger if the don’t get the candidate they want - Then learning that nobody cares if they pull the trigger.

Also, The republican party is supposedly in demise because they are nominating a more moderate cadidate for president, and the extreme right wing is dissapointed.

Well, the Democrats seem to have given in to the extreme left, moonbat wing of their party - the Code Pinkers, the Cindy Sheehans and Michael Moore types. What is worse?

I want us to be right…..not speedy. I want us to look for truth, not make up the truth and then make up laws to fit our perceived ideas of truth.

I want this nation to care for the rich and the poor. The weak and the strong because we are all after all. Americans first and foremost.

So at the end of the day I think that a two or three party system is our safest bet. It is our strongest chance at success and yes it might be slow but then this country has always moved ahead slowly, cautiously making sure that we try not to leave anyone behind.

That is precisely why we can have heated debates about politics or religion or gay right and then go have a beer and play softball together.

Ain’t America Great!!

PS

I think the GOP needed this. They need to restructure, reorganize and reevaluate their direction and they will come out stronger and perhaps a bit more moderate. A bit. But you can rest assured that 1/2 of this country believes in what they are doing as a party. As someone said earlier. This is not a vote for the democrats as much as it is going to be a vote against GWB and the WAR. Period. I do believe that.

“..you should never underestimate the Democrats will to botch an election”" - gerryf

True. In this analysis, I did indeed completely ignore the Dems propensity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Its a wild card.

One point of contention, though–to say the Dems will win a landslide ignores the truism that you should never underestimate the Democrats will to botch an election.

I am still wondering how George W Bush was elected in the first place. Failed businessman, mediocre politician, hopelessly inarticulate, son of a 1-term president and brother to a criminal (Neil =S&L fiasco, and frankly Jeb still needs to explain how a 4.6 million construction loan resulted in a $500,000 building), anti-environment (though he lied about that), pro-Oil, fiscally unconservative, draft dodger–my God, who voted for this guy?

“My question is why would anyone want a one party system in this country?” - abrisaham

Abrisaham,
I certainly do not, as should be clear from my other posts here or even the paragraph on divided government in this post. I think granting single party control of the presidency and both houses of legislature is always a big big mistake. It was a disaster under six years of Republican party single party control, and I am sure it will be bad again under the single party Democratic control we will see for at least the next two years.

Single party control of the federal government undermines the checks and balances designed into the system. As a result bad legislation is passed, bad decisions are made and allowed to stand, oversight is inadequate, and corruption is made easier.

My preference would have been to vote fro an anti-war fiscal conservative Republican to maintain divided government. For that reason I supported Hagel and then Paul. Now my choice is either to vote for a continuation of this military policy, or vote for single party government. Worse and Worser. It’s a conundrum.

If Hagel/Bloomberg get into this race - that might be my only choice.

McCain seems moderate because his small number of deviations from his party have been vastly played up to create this “maverick” image, and because the press love him. But that’s just the image of a moderate, not the substance.

It’s true that his campaign so far has given him room to tack to the center, and he might yet take that opportunity (indeed he will have to to stand a chance). But there’s been no evidence of that so far.

The GOP should have a structural advantage in 2010 (as the Dems have this year) and as the pendulum swings back,they will make gains in the Senate in 2010. If they do not dig themselves too deep a hole this year, they might even regain the Senate.

I also agree that this election is still all bout Iraq, regardless of how many talking heads say it is the economy. You hear a lot about the the “three legs of the stool” for the GOP - fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, strong defense. It seems like Republicans prefer to argue whether the social or fiscal leg is to blame for the failure of the traditional and necessary “fusionist alliance” in the GOP. It is neither - in fact, it is the third leg, the rabid militarism, that will cost the GOP this election and possibly their future.

Americans believe in what GWB campaigned on (humble foreign policy, no nation building, strong military only for defense) and not what he came to represent - involving us in a preemptive war we did not need to fight, continuing to attempt to entangle us in a permanent occupation of Iraq, ham handed saber rattling over diplomacy and the willingness to sacrifice American freedoms, constitutional protections and privacy on the altar of a permanent war.

This is going to be a landslide.

My question is why would anyone want a one party system in this country?

Do you so believe that the democrats have the answers for everything that we would not end up in far, far, far worse shape then we are in now.

It never ceases to amaze me at the win at all costs mentality of those one the left or the right.

On the other hand, The GOP may really be in the process of being rendered politically irrelevant for a generation.