Comments on: Obama Gains Big In Pennsylvania

By: tome

tome — Sat, 15 Mar 2008 06:41:34 +0000

Obama is one of the most skilful liars you will ever see. Check this site out: http://www.mahalo.com/Larry_Sinclair

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » “The Story” in Texas and Ohio

Donklephant » Blog Archive » “The Story” in Texas and Ohio — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 02:58:20 +0000

[...] so. This is what I have been saying in posts here and in other comments. With a Clinton win in Ohio and Texas, the narrative – “The Story” – becomes more [...]

By: mw

mw — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 00:47:55 +0000

Middle, Apparently my comment reply is in moderation. Gotta run some errands. Will look for your revised offer later tonight/

By: mw

mw — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 00:44:55 +0000

Nice Try Middle – but…

First of all I like posting here – so I ain’t going anywhere. Those stakes are too high for me. Besides, I don’t care if you post here or not. But cash – or a public post extolling your virtues, your genius, your studliness, your betting prowess – I’ll do that.

Now on to the terms – The 15% has to come out of the bet, I don’t accept your premise that she needs to win by 15% for it to be a victory.

It is appropriate to paraphrase an infamous Clintonian parsing: It depends on the what the definition of â€œwinâ€ is.

I am using the popular vote as the sole determinant of victory. That is the definition of the Intrade contract. On Intrade I can get 4 to 1 odds for the Texas Primary (not caucus). It would be kind of silly for me to make a wager with you for considerably lesser terms than I can get on the open market – don’t you agree? Lets call the odds negotiable. I’m listening. Make me an offer.

My rationale why a simple majority the popular vote in TX and OH is enough. Not delegates. Not caucus results. Just the popular votes in Texas and Ohio. As long as she wins the popular vote The Story stays intact. The Story is all that matters to her campaign now. The Story is that Clinton wins all the big states except Illinois. That story is all that is needed to provide political cover for the superdelegates to vote for Clinton. A 200 elected delegate lead for Obama is the equivalent of a dead even tie, as long as The Story is intact.

If the story is broken, and she loses the popular vote in Texas. Game over.

By: TheMiddle

TheMiddle — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 23:42:44 +0000

MW, ya know, we can forgoe all the legal crap and just place a wager right here online. Lets say, if Hillary wins by more than 15% in Texas and Ohio (the only way she can actually have a legitimate shot at winning the nomination) I’ll never post here again. And If Obama wins, you dont post here anymore. Or we could put good ole US currency on it. I’ll put 100 on it Barack takes Texas if you’ll put 100 on it that she can win by 15% in each state and actually stay competitive in this race. How about it?

By: mw

mw — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 22:35:42 +0000

Maggie,
Good insight on the Penn primary. Just noticed that Clinton’s Intrade contract for the Dem nomination is below 20. It has not been this low since the night before the New Hampshire Primary, when it went from below 30 to almost 70 in one day. That contract would be a good contrarian bet if I could figure out how to put US money into that thing. When Clinton surprises in Texas like she did in NH – it’ll be a tidy little profit.

By: Maggie

Maggie — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 18:02:01 +0000

When Obama gets his win in TX, the race is over. Even if she keeps OH in her column, it’ll be too close to change the tide. There’s already a steady trickle of superdelegates to Obama. On March 5, it’ll be a much stronger movement. She’s already getting ‘it’s over’ articles in the press — that will also become much stronger. Her funding will dry up. I’d bet a lot of money that she’s out by March 8.

Intrade is betting that way, too. The contract for the PA primary has Obama at 80. Given that the polls are still in her favor, that only makes sense if the market is betting that HRC is out of the race before then.

By: mw

mw — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 17:42:20 +0000

Polls Shows Obama Bump .. By Justin Gardner "And in at least one poll, he leads by a lot... And whatâ€™s more, these voters seem to be fairly sure of who theyâ€™ll vote forâ€¦ More polls show Obama pulling close to Hillary, but not overtaking her. Weâ€™ll see what the numbers say on Sunday."

Obama Pulling Away... By Justin Gardner "The big bounce is upon usâ€¦ This is extremely bad news for the Clinton camp."

Don't you just love how nothing you ever say on a blog ever goes away?

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 17:17:33 +0000

Yep, but Obama is closing the gap quickly in all of the states, and some polls show him leading in Texas. The trends are definitely against her.

By: mw

mw — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 16:23:24 +0000

So you are saying that Clinton is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and tied in Texas. Just checking.