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	<title>Comments on: Hillary Making Late Surge In Texas?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/</link>
	<description>Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable.</description>
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		<title>By: mw</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392609</link>
		<dc:creator>mw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 01:57:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392609</guid>
		<description>ahem - &lt;i&gt;&quot;I Told You So.&quot; &lt;/i&gt; 

Oh wait..  Did I actually post this? Sorry. My bad. I was just practicing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>ahem &#8211; <i>&#8220;I Told You So.&#8221; </i> </p>
<p>Oh wait..  Did I actually post this? Sorry. My bad. I was just practicing.</p>
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		<title>By: kritter</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392607</link>
		<dc:creator>kritter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Mar 2008 01:33:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392607</guid>
		<description>MW, 

Of course the polls could be wrong. NH notwithstanding, they have been right way more often than wrong ever since NH. The longer and better documented the trend, the more likely it is to be right. That&#039;s why I think the consistent message that can be gleaned from the Texas and Ohio polls is that Obama has gained a small but real edge in Texas but Hillary has been hanging on in Ohio,

Late sketchy trends are the ones that tend to be most suspect. if anything, that calls into question the most recent polls that show Clinton doing a shade better than she had been doing in the week or two before that.

Also, don&#039;t forget how short the time was between Iowa and NH. Would Clinton have hung on if NH had been another week later?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MW, </p>
<p>Of course the polls could be wrong. NH notwithstanding, they have been right way more often than wrong ever since NH. The longer and better documented the trend, the more likely it is to be right. That&#8217;s why I think the consistent message that can be gleaned from the Texas and Ohio polls is that Obama has gained a small but real edge in Texas but Hillary has been hanging on in Ohio,</p>
<p>Late sketchy trends are the ones that tend to be most suspect. if anything, that calls into question the most recent polls that show Clinton doing a shade better than she had been doing in the week or two before that.</p>
<p>Also, don&#8217;t forget how short the time was between Iowa and NH. Would Clinton have hung on if NH had been another week later?</p>
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		<title>By: mw</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392586</link>
		<dc:creator>mw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 21:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392586</guid>
		<description>I guess I better have two posts ready. 

Kritter - just out of curiosity - do you recall how the polls were trending over the week heading into New Hampshire? It seems to have slipped my mind.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess I better have two posts ready. </p>
<p>Kritter &#8211; just out of curiosity &#8211; do you recall how the polls were trending over the week heading into New Hampshire? It seems to have slipped my mind.</p>
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		<title>By: Rich Horton</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392579</link>
		<dc:creator>Rich Horton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 19:50:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392579</guid>
		<description>Camp Clinton was probably heartened that Zogby shows Obama in the lead.  That has proven to be a pretty firm indicator of a Clinton victory in the past.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Camp Clinton was probably heartened that Zogby shows Obama in the lead.  That has proven to be a pretty firm indicator of a Clinton victory in the past.</p>
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		<title>By: kritter</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392577</link>
		<dc:creator>kritter</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 19:35:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392577</guid>
		<description>What makes the most analytic sense is to  view each successive poll result as one data point, and then project based on the trend. Texas has trended strongly Obama, and most of the recent ones show it either close or with Obama ahead. Few if any recent ones show Clinton ahead. That suggests Obama will take Texas.

Ohio has consistently shown Obama closing but still trailing, which suggests Hillary could hang on.

Since it&#039;s the day before, why not make both an &quot;I told you so&quot; tag, and a &quot;boy was I wrong&quot; tag, and then use whichever one the outcome warrants. :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What makes the most analytic sense is to  view each successive poll result as one data point, and then project based on the trend. Texas has trended strongly Obama, and most of the recent ones show it either close or with Obama ahead. Few if any recent ones show Clinton ahead. That suggests Obama will take Texas.</p>
<p>Ohio has consistently shown Obama closing but still trailing, which suggests Hillary could hang on.</p>
<p>Since it&#8217;s the day before, why not make both an &#8220;I told you so&#8221; tag, and a &#8220;boy was I wrong&#8221; tag, and then use whichever one the outcome warrants. :-)</p>
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		<title>By: mw</title>
		<link>http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/comment-page-1/#comment-392559</link>
		<dc:creator>mw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Mar 2008 17:31:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://donklephant.com/2008/03/03/hillary-making-late-surge-in-texas/#comment-392559</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt; &lt;i&gt;Could mw be right? &lt;/i&gt; - jg &lt;/blockquote&gt;

Hard to believe. 

But, just in case - I think it is time for you to set up that &lt;b&gt;&quot;I told you so.&quot;&lt;/b&gt; tag I requested. I may need it for a post on Wednesday.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p> <i>Could mw be right? </i> &#8211; jg </p></blockquote>
<p>Hard to believe. </p>
<p>But, just in case &#8211; I think it is time for you to set up that <b>&#8220;I told you so.&#8221;</b> tag I requested. I may need it for a post on Wednesday.</p>
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