He’s running for VP

By mw | Related entries in I Told You So

Obama announces for President

That was what I said on a post more than a year ago, commenting on Obama’s February 10, 2007 announcement to run for President, and well before I started posting here at Donklephant. In light of all the speculation on a Democratic Dream Ticket here this morning, I thought I’d reprise a portion of that old post here:

“Apparently he is building his campaign on on a foundation of Baby Boomicide. One has to ask – why the generational focus? I submit, that this is a realistic political calculation by a young, self-assured, very smart, very ambitious politician, who understands that his path to the presidency requires a stepping stone as Vice-President. A key element in the selection of any Vice-Presidential candidate, is to identify what constituency they bring to a ticket. From a purely political perspective, it is interesting to ask – Exactly what constituency does Barack Obama bring to a Democratic ticket? It is not his home state. Illinois is already True Blue. It is not the black vote, Hillary Clinton outpolls Barack Obama among blacks. But if Barack can bring a generational constituency, if he can mobilize a demographic block that historically cannot even be bothered to vote, then Barack would be a formidable addition to any Democratic ticket. This is a campaign to capture that constituency and trade it for a spot on the ticket. Obama for Vice-President!

Since then, Obama has proven me wrong on several points, most significantly that he is very much running for President and close to being nominated. But on the larger point, I think this may yet prove to be prophetic. He may no longer be running for Vice-President, but I expect that is exactly how it will turn out.

Oh, and while we are on the subject of prognostications, let me just get this out of the way as painlessly as possible: I told you so, Justin.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 5th, 2008 and is filed under I Told You So. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

6 Responses to “He’s running for VP”

  1. Scott Sammons Says:

    No, I do not believe that he is. I believe that he is in to win. I believe he might win. I believe that if he does win, he will hit the same wall of resistance that Bill Clinton did in ’92. We cannot afford that training time now.

    I want Obama as Sec. of State. I want a dedicated College of Deplomacy on par with the millitary Academies, supervised and overseen by the State Dept.

    I like Gen. Wesley Clark for V. P., John Edwards Dept. of Labor,
    An AllStar cabinate!

  2. Scott Sammons Says:

    Go Cynthia McKinney Go!

  3. Keith Pickering Says:

    Sorry, you’re still way off base. Clinton won the night, and in so doing she lost the nomination. How? Let’s go back, waaay back to February 19. On that day, Obama won Wisconsin for +10 delegates, and he also won Hawaii for +10 delegates — a net of +20 for the day.

    On March 4, Clinton won Rhode Island for (probably) +3 delegates, and lost Vermont for -3 delegates. She won Ohio for +9 delegates. In Texas, she won the primary portion of the night, but very narrowly, for +2 delegates, and lost the caucus portion of the night more broadly, for -7 delegates. Net for the entire night: Clinton won 4 — yes FOUR — delegates.

    How does that make up for the 20 she lost on February 19?

    And now there are just 611 pledged delegates left to select, and Clinton is still more than 150 delegates behind. She’s run out of room. Clinton didn’t need to merely win Ohio and Texas, she needed to win them both by 15% or more to have a realistic shot. She didn’t do that. She can no longer win the nomination by any realistic combination of events.

  4. Phil Jamison Says:

    On the subject of a potential Obama administration (or Clinton II’s), there is an interesting project in pure democracy just getting started on the web: automated and continuously updated ‘approval style’ voting on VP, cabinet, and major posts. Approval style voting means you can vote for as many of the choices as you approve. The site will remain open indefinitely for follow up research: http://puredem.wordpress.com

  5. Donklephant » Blog Archive » All the king’s horses and all the king’s men… Says:

    [...] and along the way I may have a made a few predictions that proved to be, um… what’s the word I am looking for? Wrong. And Justin [...]

  6. Donklephant » Blog Archive » Schmidt Agonistes – Game Change – Book Review and Blog Backwash Says:

    […] MW: (February 11, 2007) (March 8, 2008) […]

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