Poll: Obama Up Big In North Carolina, Race Speech Helping?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, PollsPublic Policy Polling has the numbers, and it looks like Obama has gained considerable ground since last week’s race speech. So while it may not be playing in some corners or the country, in others it’s turning out to be box office gold.
Last week the numbers looked like this:
Obama: 44%
Clinton: 43%
Today?
Obama: 55%
Clinton: 34%
The demographic breakdowns are:
Blacks: 80%/14%, Obama/Hillary
Whites: 47%/40%, Hillary/Obama
With Hillary Clinton facing a big gap in pledged delegates, she now needs to win practically all the remaining contests in order to damage Obama’s public standing and justify a super-delegate win — and this poll isn’t good news for her. For Obama’s part, a huge net delegate win here could potentially make up for just about all the expected Hillary gains from Pennsylvania
Just like Wyoming and Mississippi wiped out any minimal gains from Ohio.
A tough road ahead for Hill. But then again, it always has been since she didn’t plan for the 11 contests between Super Tuesday and the March 4th primaries.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
March 25th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
I think I’m calling BS here without further information. I looked at the pdf and there is no information on the sample used, which is suspicious enough. But based upon the number given it seems the sample included equal numbers of black and white voters. (For Hillary (47 + 14)/181 = 33.7%) Now, I’m not an expert in North Carolina demographics but that doesn’t seem right, even in a Democratic primary. Can anybody point me to something to confirm such a weighting based upon race? I cant find anything.
March 25th, 2008 at 11:24 pm
This is excellent news for the Democratic party.
Please drop out Hillary! This is serious. We have to beat John McCain.
March 26th, 2008 at 5:35 am
To Richard Horton…
The reason that may seem incorrect is that the method you are using to determine the overall average requires that there be an equal number of blacks and whites.
You would need to weight your numbers by the percentages of the different groups of people. Unfortunately, this information was not provided by the article.
But…if NC has more voting black people, the Hillary per cent you found would actually be lower…. if there are more voting white people, then her number will be higher. Statistics can start to get tricky.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
[...] Advantage has the poll, that supports another recent poll that showed Obama up by 21 in the Tar Heel [...]
April 5th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
[...] Poll: Obama Up Big In North Carolina, Race Speech Helping? [...]