Comments on: Poll: Obama Up Big In North Carolina, Race Speech Helping?

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Rasmussen: Obama Has 23% Lead In North Carolina

Sun, 06 Apr 2008 00:38:20 +0000

[...] Poll: Obama Up Big In North Carolina, Race Speech Helping? [...]

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Poll: Obama Up 15 In North Carolina

Donklephant » Blog Archive » Poll: Obama Up 15 In North Carolina — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 23:55:35 +0000

[...] Advantage has the poll, that supports another recent poll that showed Obama up by 21 in the Tar Heel [...]

By: John Pates

John Pates — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 11:35:55 +0000

To Richard Horton…

The reason that may seem incorrect is that the method you are using to determine the overall average requires that there be an equal number of blacks and whites.

You would need to weight your numbers by the percentages of the different groups of people. Unfortunately, this information was not provided by the article.

But…if NC has more voting black people, the Hillary per cent you found would actually be lower…. if there are more voting white people, then her number will be higher. Statistics can start to get tricky.

By: Obama

Obama — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 05:24:56 +0000

This is excellent news for the Democratic party.

Please drop out Hillary! This is serious. We have to beat John McCain.

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 21:17:59 +0000

I think I’m calling BS here without further information. I looked at the pdf and there is no information on the sample used, which is suspicious enough. But based upon the number given it seems the sample included equal numbers of black and white voters. (For Hillary (47 + 14)/181 = 33.7%) Now, I’m not an expert in North Carolina demographics but that doesn’t seem right, even in a Democratic primary. Can anybody point me to something to confirm such a weighting based upon race? I cant find anything.