Comments on: Poll: Hillary Up By 12 In Pennsylvania http://donklephant.com/2008/03/29/poll-hillary-up-by-12-in-pennsylvania/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: kritter http://donklephant.com/2008/03/29/poll-hillary-up-by-12-in-pennsylvania/comment-page-1/#comment-395140 kritter Sat, 29 Mar 2008 21:15:41 +0000 http://donklephant.com/2008/03/29/poll-hillary-up-by-12-in-pennsylvania/#comment-395140 Like I've already said a bunch of times, it seems like each candidate's win pattern is going to endure. Clinton wins the big machine states as Obama closes late but can't seal the deal. Obama wins the smaller and caucus states, the ones with many black voters, and so on. I agree that it's surprising that that the Wright story hasn't impacted Obama very much. I expect Hillary to hang on for about a 10 pt win in PA. And then I expect her to fade. Obama is bouncing back in the recent state-by-states pretty strongly and showing much better results than Hillary in the hypothetical fall match-up polls. Immediately after PA, look for Hillary to pump up the volume, call in all favors, lean on all her go-to buddies, and pull out all the stops on the FL/MI issue. I had hoped for do-overs as the least crappy solution, and now that those don't look like they'll happen, I can't envision what kind of resolution would be fair to both candidates and to both states. Like I’ve already said a bunch of times, it seems like each candidate’s win pattern is going to endure. Clinton wins the big machine states as Obama closes late but can’t seal the deal. Obama wins the smaller and caucus states, the ones with many black voters, and so on.

I agree that it’s surprising that that the Wright story hasn’t impacted Obama very much. I expect Hillary to hang on for about a 10 pt win in PA. And then I expect her to fade. Obama is bouncing back in the recent state-by-states pretty strongly and showing much better results than Hillary in the hypothetical fall match-up polls.

Immediately after PA, look for Hillary to pump up the volume, call in all favors, lean on all her go-to buddies, and pull out all the stops on the FL/MI issue. I had hoped for do-overs as the least crappy solution, and now that those don’t look like they’ll happen, I can’t envision what kind of resolution would be fair to both candidates and to both states.

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