Comments on: Poll: Obama Up By Nearly 20 In North Carolina

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Bill: If Hill Doesn’t Win N.C., It’s Over

Sat, 05 Apr 2008 23:15:54 +0000

[...] recent polls from North Carolina has Obama leading by 18 and 15 points. Certainly not insurmountable, but it’s still a steep climb This entry was [...]

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 19:31:52 +0000

Rich, how about this buddy…since you think it’s false, I suggest you call Dean Debnam at 888-621-6988 and take this up with him. He’d be happy to answer any question you have since he works for PPP. I report nearly all the polls I can find to highlight trends. Nothing more. So this whole “gospel” meme you’re trying to lay on me is simply not supported by the facts.

And yes, weights matter. Did I ever say anything to the contrary? Again, you called the WSJ poll “wrong” because you either ignored or didn’t notice that they reweighted the sample to make sure it was accurate. So the only person in this conversation who has said anything remotely resembling “gospel” is you.

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 18:47:54 +0000

Justin, you owe me an apology. You obviously do not know what a statistically valid random sample is, or what standard operating procedure is in providing details of your sample. The PP does not provide enough information to draw ANY valid conclusions about the quality of its “findings”. If you say it does you are either A) lying or B) dont know enough about polling to realize when something is wrong. The truth is this poll tells you what you WANT to believe so it becomes gospel. Thats irrational.

Here is an example of how you are SUPPOSED to report sample data. Notice a difference from the PP summary? SPR givens you the EXACT samples used so that anyone can see HOW they weighted things to see if it seems plausible. (SPR weighted their sample of 460 by race, 257 White, 170 Black, 22 Hispanic, 11 “Other”.) Is their weighting accurate? I’m not sure. I certainly cant compare it to PP who refuse to tell us how they weighted at all.

And the weights MATTER. Zogby got California wrong by nearly 25 percentage points because he weighted his polls incorrectly. (Which *I* correctly called before the primary.)

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:16:38 +0000

Rich, Respectfully, I don't think you know how polling and weighting works. Was this poll more right when it showed Obama only had a 2 point lead three weeks ago? You also flat out said the recent WSJ poll was wrong without knowing how it worked too. In other words, please come to the table with more than your opinion about how valid these polls are, okay?

By: Rich Horton

Rich Horton — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:19:34 +0000

PP still wont give out the breakdown of the sample by race. Clinton leads Obma by 17%(!) among whites, but is down 18 in total??? NC is 70% white and only 22% black. I’m not sure the fact it is a Democratic primary is gonna skew it that much.

I still think these are garbage polls.

By: Christian Prophet

Christian Prophet — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:02:49 +0000

Clinton is just not hitting Obama where it would hurt. See:
http://miraclesdaily.blogspot.com/

She needs to realize what McCain would hit Obama on, and beat McCain to the punch.