Pennsylvania Poll Shock: All Tied Up
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Pennsylvania, PollsOn Mar 26-27, American Research Group found that Hillary had a 51 to 39 lead in PA, but since then the race has tightened and today ARG finds that they’re all tied up, 45 to 45.
The internals show:
- Obama has men 53 to 36, while Hill has women 52 to 39.
- Hill leads whites 52 to 36, while Obama leads blacks by an astounding 89 to 9.
- Obama takes 18-49ers by 14 , while Hill takes 50+by the same margin.
The race has increasingly been trending in Obama’s favor this past week, as polls in North Carolina show a widening of his lead there, and polls from Pennsylvania and Indiana show the contests getting close.
Are Democrats finally deciding that enough’s enough? Because if Hill barely ekes out a win in PA or actually loses, her campaign is dead as disco.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Monday, April 7th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Pennsylvania, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
April 7th, 2008 at 8:16 am
He is reportedly outspending her five to one in PA. That is a lot of TV. Maybe this time it will enough to deliver the knockout blow. If he does beat her in PA, its over. OTOH, if he outspends her five to one, and still can’t close the deal, it will only raise more questions in the superdelegate minds about whether he can win in November.
April 7th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I’ll believe it when I see it……….remember the last few times. The vast Archie Bunker vote between Philly and Pitt will throw it her way I believe. It is interesting that Bill was talking about NC being the real test over the weekend……was that the goal post being moved I wonder?
April 7th, 2008 at 9:43 am
This is a hoax……Hillary’s group is upping the “expectations” game. He isn’t going to win in Pennsylvania. Don’t be duped!!
April 7th, 2008 at 9:52 am
Obama only needs to get within a few points of Hillary to suck all the wind out of her sails, because NC is going to go for Obama
April 7th, 2008 at 9:52 am
TC,
Once the “big state” story is broken - the Clinton campaign has nothing left. PA would break the story, NC would not. I think Bill forgot what state he was in.
April 7th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Enough is enough. We hear her talking about stealing elected delegates, counting uncontested elections, credentials fights…SPIN it all you like, THAT’S how the “common joe(lene)” sees it, she will ruin the Party. We can’t afford McCain, more will die. Enough!
April 7th, 2008 at 10:29 am
I continue to expect the win patterns of each candidate to endure. Hillary will carry PA after the polls show Obama closing. Clinton folk will do their best to portray this as bigger achievement than it is, but the vote will be close enough to keep the delegate gap largely intact.
I agree that Clinton is done if Obama wins in PA, but the better known polls continue to show a 6-12 point gap.
It’s time to stop calling Obama’s gap among blacks astounding. He’s scoring 8-2/9-1 sized gaps everywhere. It doesn’t surprise or bother me. At all. But the “reverse racism” moaning should reach the station on time and on schedule.
April 7th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Attempt to remain cool. I continue to expect the win patterns of each candidate to endure. Hillary will carry PA after the polls show Obama closing. Clinton folk will do their best to portray this as bigger achievement than it is, but the vote will be close enough to keep the delegate gap largely intact.
I agree that Clinton is done if Obama wins in PA, but the better known polls continue to show a 6-12 point gap.
It’s time to stop calling Obama’s gap among blacks astounding. He’s scoring 8-2/9-1 sized gaps everywhere. It doesn’t surprise or bother me. At all. But the “reverse racism” moaning should reach the station on time and on schedule.
April 7th, 2008 at 10:55 am
Do you people honestly believe Obama can win Pennsylvania, considering he lost by 10 points in Ohio? And he has not won a big state yet. Forget the polls. This race so far has been decided by demographics. She’d have a better chance pulling off North Carolina than he would have pulling off a Pennsylvania win, no matter what the polls say.
April 7th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Over 90% of Black Americans voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and
John Kerry. That wasn’t a problem. But if anyone Black, even Oprah,
supports Barack Obama some people are going to cry racism.
Those same people will castigate anyone White that votes
for Obama.
Note Obama won 79% of the vote in Idaho. Must habe
been all those Black Americans.
April 7th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
I will be so glad when election day has come and gone. and the President has be elected, regardless of who it is. I am so sick and tired of hearing why Obama is better or why Clinton is better. I am also so sick and tired of people basing their choice on what they’re reading and hearing from the press and taking it face value, as oppose to doing the research to find out if it is factual or not.
If this campaign has brought anything to the American people, it is that more than not, there is a bunch of self righteous people in this country and that makes you worse than the two people who are campaigning.
April 20th, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Ya know - I am tired of people saying they are tired of hearing about the race. Like it or not, this is what American politics is (and always has been) about. No one ever seems to remember a time where mud was not slung. In many cases things have improved. In the good ol’ days in the 19th century, nothing was off-limits! You could talk about the other candidates religion, or their mother. Of course, everyone was a white male, so the race card didn’t generally get played.
Oh and one more thing - Obama is gonna kick Clinton’s ass.