Comments on: Poll: Hill Leads By 5 In Pennsylvania, Obama Leads By 5 In Indiana http://donklephant.com/2008/04/15/poll-hill-leads-by-5-in-pa-obama-leads-by-5-in-indiana/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 02 Dec 2008 04:13:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Suzyq http://donklephant.com/2008/04/15/poll-hill-leads-by-5-in-pa-obama-leads-by-5-in-indiana/#comment-396293 Suzyq Wed, 16 Apr 2008 02:25:34 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5244#comment-396293 Obama was not codescending - he was stating a reality for many people, not all, in economically depressed towns. It had nothing to do with elitism. Unfortunately, a very intelligent and accomplished black man in this country is perceived as "uppity" by folks like the Clintons. Hillary and Bill have defined him as elitist and others have now called him a bigot. Perhaps this assuages their using race to try to win the election. The Clintons have been such a disappointment - how far Bill has fallen. Or perhaps he's always been what many would call "white trash". Obama was not codescending - he was stating a reality for many people, not all, in economically depressed towns. It had nothing to do with elitism. Unfortunately, a very intelligent and accomplished black man in this country is perceived as “uppity” by folks like the Clintons. Hillary and Bill have defined him as elitist and others have now called him a bigot. Perhaps this assuages their using race to try to win the election. The Clintons have been such a disappointment - how far Bill has fallen. Or perhaps he’s always been what many would call “white trash”.

]]> By: reason http://donklephant.com/2008/04/15/poll-hill-leads-by-5-in-pa-obama-leads-by-5-in-indiana/#comment-396281 reason Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:14:29 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5244#comment-396281 Polls are notoriously wrong, still I don't see how Obama can lose the nomination unless he does something really boneheaded. That is possible but not likely. As to the general election he will lose by a very large margin. He has alienated many of Clinton's supporters, 26 percent say they will vote McCain. While Obama's questionable associations with many slimy figures and his statements against god and guns has destroyed any chance he had of reaching accross the isle. Not only that, by insulting religion and the second ammendment he pissed off the republican base. They were ambivalent about McCain before, now they will come out like locusts to make sure Obama never, ever shows his face again in a public forum. The democratic party was a great force for good once. It is now just a shell of it's former self and badly fractured. Hopefully the coming november disaster will finally force the democrats to reevaluate their positions and platform. To truly reach out and UNDERSTAND the people they have alienated for so long. That is the only positive thing the democrats can hope for now. Polls are notoriously wrong, still I don’t see how Obama can lose the nomination unless he does something really boneheaded. That is possible but not likely.

As to the general election he will lose by a very large margin. He has alienated many of Clinton’s supporters, 26 percent say they will vote McCain. While Obama’s questionable associations with many slimy figures and his statements against god and guns has destroyed any chance he had of reaching accross the isle.

Not only that, by insulting religion and the second ammendment he pissed off the republican base. They were ambivalent about McCain before, now they will come out like locusts to make sure Obama never, ever shows his face again in a public forum.

The democratic party was a great force for good once. It is now just a shell of it’s former self and badly fractured. Hopefully the coming november disaster will finally force the democrats to reevaluate their positions and platform. To truly reach out and UNDERSTAND the people they have alienated for so long. That is the only positive thing the democrats can hope for now.

]]> By: mw http://donklephant.com/2008/04/15/poll-hill-leads-by-5-in-pa-obama-leads-by-5-in-indiana/#comment-396275 mw Tue, 15 Apr 2008 23:32:08 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5244#comment-396275 <blockquote>Pennsylvania Clinton 46, Obama 41 Indiana Obama 40, Clinton 35 North Carolina Obama 47, Clinton 34</blockquote> PA 46+41=87 13% Undecided? IN 40+35-75 25% Undecided? NC 47+34=81 19% Undecided? I believe that Obama will take NC handily. But in PA and IN, how the undecideds break at the end is far more telling than the day to day statistical fluctuations in the difference between them now. I expect that, like Ohio, they'll break predominantly for Clinton. I do find the high undecideds in NC surprising, though. Perhaps that will be closer than it looks now.

Pennsylvania
Clinton 46, Obama 41

Indiana
Obama 40, Clinton 35

North Carolina
Obama 47, Clinton 34

PA 46+41=87 13% Undecided?
IN 40+35-75 25% Undecided?
NC 47+34=81 19% Undecided?

I believe that Obama will take NC handily. But in PA and IN, how the undecideds break at the end is far more telling than the day to day statistical fluctuations in the difference between them now. I expect that, like Ohio, they’ll break predominantly for Clinton.

I do find the high undecideds in NC surprising, though. Perhaps that will be closer than it looks now.

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