Comments on: SurveyUSA: Clinton Leads By 36 In Kentucky http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:12:48 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Grant http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-434987 Grant Mon, 12 Jan 2009 20:50:06 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-434987 Thank the gods Bush isn't president! Thank the gods Bush isn’t president!

]]> By: mw http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-398037 mw Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:12:38 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-398037 She can lose the pledged delegates by 150 and still easily win the nomination with superdelegates. A superdelegate announcing for Obama (or Clinton) does not make them a pledged delegate. The superdelegate announcements of support are not as meaningful as pledged delegates in terms of reliability when it comes time to vote. Pledged delegates are selected for loyalty to the candidate, so they are not going to change their vote. Superdelegates are loyal only to themselves and the party, and loyalty to the candidates is secondary. If it looks to them like Clinton is the better candidate in November, they'll vote for Clinton, regardless of whether they announced earlier for Obama. The reverse is also true, if she loses Indiana. She can lose the pledged delegates by 150 and still easily win the nomination with superdelegates. A superdelegate announcing for Obama (or Clinton) does not make them a pledged delegate. The superdelegate announcements of support are not as meaningful as pledged delegates in terms of reliability when it comes time to vote. Pledged delegates are selected for loyalty to the candidate, so they are not going to change their vote. Superdelegates are loyal only to themselves and the party, and loyalty to the candidates is secondary. If it looks to them like Clinton is the better candidate in November, they’ll vote for Clinton, regardless of whether they announced earlier for Obama. The reverse is also true, if she loses Indiana.

]]> By: Justin Gardner http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-397977 Justin Gardner Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:24:17 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-397977 <blockquote>She does not need to erase the pledged delegate lead. Never has. She only has to get the total delegate majority.</blockquote> mw...seriously... She needs to erase the pledged delegate lead one way or another to get the majority of the delegates, right? Bill, the scenario you're speaking of is a little bit more likely than it was a couple weeks ago, but I think it's incredibly wishful thinking to say that they'll flock to Hillary in the 3 to 1 margin she needs to make up the difference.

She does not need to erase the pledged delegate lead. Never has. She only has to get the total delegate majority.

mw…seriously…

She needs to erase the pledged delegate lead one way or another to get the majority of the delegates, right?

Bill, the scenario you’re speaking of is a little bit more likely than it was a couple weeks ago, but I think it’s incredibly wishful thinking to say that they’ll flock to Hillary in the 3 to 1 margin she needs to make up the difference.

]]> By: Bill - Florida http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-397904 Bill - Florida Wed, 30 Apr 2008 16:29:53 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-397904 The difference between this state and Pennsylvania is that, in 7 weeks, Obama was able to cut Hillary's lead from ~16 points to ~9 points. Both of their efforts are in Indiana and North Carolina, for another week. That leaves him with 1 week to cut into her 20+ point lead in West Virginia, and 1 week after that to cut into her 36 point lead in Kentucky. Considering the fact that several of the most recent primaries, late deciders have tended to favor Hillary, I predict she'll win big in West Virginia AND Kentucky. As far as Indiana and North Carolina go, most recent polls are showing her with a 9 point lead in Indiana, and cutting Obama's lead to 5 points in North Carolina. Both polls were also SurveyUSA. With the momentum from her decisive Pennsylvania win and Obama's recent pastor controversy, it now looks possible (although unlikely) that she might cause an upset in North Carolina, or come really close. That would most likely cause the super delegates to start to flock to Hillary. Factor all this in with the possibility of Florida and Michigan delegates being seated (and their super delegates who will favor Hillary), and it is a very plausible claim that she can and arguably is likely to win the nomination. The difference between this state and Pennsylvania is that, in 7 weeks, Obama was able to cut Hillary’s lead from ~16 points to ~9 points. Both of their efforts are in Indiana and North Carolina, for another week. That leaves him with 1 week to cut into her 20+ point lead in West Virginia, and 1 week after that to cut into her 36 point lead in Kentucky. Considering the fact that several of the most recent primaries, late deciders have tended to favor Hillary, I predict she’ll win big in West Virginia AND Kentucky.

As far as Indiana and North Carolina go, most recent polls are showing her with a 9 point lead in Indiana, and cutting Obama’s lead to 5 points in North Carolina. Both polls were also SurveyUSA. With the momentum from her decisive Pennsylvania win and Obama’s recent pastor controversy, it now looks possible (although unlikely) that she might cause an upset in North Carolina, or come really close. That would most likely cause the super delegates to start to flock to Hillary. Factor all this in with the possibility of Florida and Michigan delegates being seated (and their super delegates who will favor Hillary), and it is a very plausible claim that she can and arguably is likely to win the nomination.

]]> By: mw http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-397824 mw Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:21:22 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-397824 She does not need to erase the pledged delegate lead. Never has. She only has to get the total delegate majority. That said, this percentage lead will not hold up in KY, just like her big lead in the early polls in PA did not hold up, and Obama's big early lead in NC is not holding up. The early polls show the leader, but they are useless as indicators of margin once the in-state campaign has started in earnest. I have never agreed with the traditional claim by losers of victory if they cut the percentage they lost by in comparison to these meaningless early polls (i.e. claiming Obama did something meaningful by cutting Clintons 18 point lead to 9 points in PA after outspending her 3-1 - complete nonsense.) She does not need to erase the pledged delegate lead. Never has. She only has to get the total delegate majority.

That said, this percentage lead will not hold up in KY, just like her big lead in the early polls in PA did not hold up, and Obama’s big early lead in NC is not holding up. The early polls show the leader, but they are useless as indicators of margin once the in-state campaign has started in earnest. I have never agreed with the traditional claim by losers of victory if they cut the percentage they lost by in comparison to these meaningless early polls (i.e. claiming Obama did something meaningful by cutting Clintons 18 point lead to 9 points in PA after outspending her 3-1 – complete nonsense.)

]]> By: Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Why Hillary Won’t Drop Out After Indiana http://donklephant.com/2008/04/29/surveyusa-clinton-leads-by-36-in-kentucky/comment-page-1/#comment-397466 Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Why Hillary Won’t Drop Out After Indiana Wed, 30 Apr 2008 01:19:22 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5389#comment-397466 [...] Donklephant   [...] [...] Donklephant   [...]

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