Comments on: Recession? Not Yet. http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Fri, 04 Jul 2008 06:54:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Thursday Highlights http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398638 Pseudo-Polymath » Blog Archive » Thursday Highlights Thu, 01 May 2008 12:22:21 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398638 [...] Not technically a recession. [...] [...] Not technically a recession. [...]

]]> By: Jim S http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398350 Jim S Thu, 01 May 2008 03:06:30 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398350 There are two things contributing to the increasing price of oil as much as supply and demand. These are rampant commodities speculation (Which is also a factor in the increase in food prices.) and the decreasing value of the dollar. And that had started before the Fed rate cuts. Food? Well, there's corn going for ethanol. There's the fact that oil is used in the production and transport of food. Did you know that Australia has been a huge exporter of rice? And right now they are in the middle of one of the worst droughts in modern history. And yes, there is that good old habit of futures speculation in a time when lots of money is pursuing the greatest return with absolutely no eye towards the underlying facts or stability. Can you say subprime mortgage parallels? There are two things contributing to the increasing price of oil as much as supply and demand. These are rampant commodities speculation (Which is also a factor in the increase in food prices.) and the decreasing value of the dollar. And that had started before the Fed rate cuts.

Food? Well, there’s corn going for ethanol. There’s the fact that oil is used in the production and transport of food. Did you know that Australia has been a huge exporter of rice? And right now they are in the middle of one of the worst droughts in modern history. And yes, there is that good old habit of futures speculation in a time when lots of money is pursuing the greatest return with absolutely no eye towards the underlying facts or stability. Can you say subprime mortgage parallels?

]]> By: Erik Sickinger http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398245 Erik Sickinger Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:42:40 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398245 @dj: wait, wait. So you are suggesting that the COMMERCE department is lying on the GDP from last quarter? No one would ever say .6% was "great" All 3 candidates left will bankrupt us more, its not just McCain. Not everything the gov't puts out is a GWBush lie. sheesh. @dj:
wait, wait. So you are suggesting that the COMMERCE department is lying on the GDP from last quarter?
No one would ever say .6% was “great”
All 3 candidates left will bankrupt us more, its not just McCain.

Not everything the gov’t puts out is a GWBush lie.
sheesh.

]]> By: djthedj http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398201 djthedj Wed, 30 Apr 2008 20:41:49 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398201 You honestly believe any numbers that come from this administration? Wow, some people just never learn. The economy's great, be sure to vote in McCain so we can finish off America once and for all, OK? Can you say bankrupt? You honestly believe any numbers that come from this administration? Wow, some people just never learn. The economy’s great, be sure to vote in McCain so we can finish off America once and for all, OK? Can you say bankrupt?

]]> By: ExiledIndependent http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398075 ExiledIndependent Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:51:32 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398075 Not to nitpick, but recession is two consecutive quarters rather than months. One guy's prediction: things bottom out in July, hold steady for about 4 months, then pick up slowly. Things could change more radically (based mostly on consumer confidence) if we would build another gasoline refinery here in the states and expand our domestic drilling. Of course, there's a multi-year lag between when that is authorized and when it makes a real difference, but the psychological boost would have a real economic effect. Couple this with a Manhattan Project-style push for a viable alternative fuel (and its accompanying infrastructure) by 2018 and you have an America that becomes much more economically independent and can choose its interdepencies with other nations much more selectively. It's time for America to return to a spirit of innovation and independence! USA! USA! USA! Not to nitpick, but recession is two consecutive quarters rather than months. One guy’s prediction: things bottom out in July, hold steady for about 4 months, then pick up slowly.

Things could change more radically (based mostly on consumer confidence) if we would build another gasoline refinery here in the states and expand our domestic drilling. Of course, there’s a multi-year lag between when that is authorized and when it makes a real difference, but the psychological boost would have a real economic effect.

Couple this with a Manhattan Project-style push for a viable alternative fuel (and its accompanying infrastructure) by 2018 and you have an America that becomes much more economically independent and can choose its interdepencies with other nations much more selectively.

It’s time for America to return to a spirit of innovation and independence! USA! USA! USA!

]]> By: Erik Sickinger http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398016 Erik Sickinger Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:53:20 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398016 BTW a stagnant economy + inflation = "stagflation" (not nearly as much fun as it sounds) Remember the last time we had that? BTW a stagnant economy + inflation = “stagflation” (not nearly as much fun as it sounds)

Remember the last time we had that?

]]> By: Erik Sickinger http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-398015 Erik Sickinger Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:52:17 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-398015 I agree with the above poster regarding the reason for the slight growth. But at this point, cutting rates won't positively impact the economy at all. The Fed has promoted that this more than likely will be their last rate cut for awhile - which prompted the recent strengthening of the USD, and lowered cost of oil. Look for the dollar to continue a slight increase in strength, but oil prices to rise slightly as we approach the summer months. On that note, looking at policy presented by Hillary and McCain, be prepared for a national movement to cut/eliminate the gas taxes on a federal and state level, which should ease the increase in prices at the pump. I agree with the above poster regarding the reason for the slight growth. But at this point, cutting rates won’t positively impact the economy at all. The Fed has promoted that this more than likely will be their last rate cut for awhile - which prompted the recent strengthening of the USD, and lowered cost of oil.
Look for the dollar to continue a slight increase in strength, but oil prices to rise slightly as we approach the summer months.
On that note, looking at policy presented by Hillary and McCain, be prepared for a national movement to cut/eliminate the gas taxes on a federal and state level, which should ease the increase in prices at the pump.

]]> By: Avinash_Tyagi http://donklephant.com/2008/04/30/recession-not-yet/#comment-397909 Avinash_Tyagi Wed, 30 Apr 2008 16:35:03 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5394#comment-397909 Actually even if we aren't tecnically in a recession, that doesn't mean we will get through this that easily, the fed rate cutting was the reason we have been able to keep growth continuing, however that has triggered inflation in food and crude oil prices, however the Fed is still faced with dropping property values and rising foreclosures so whether they can stop cutting rates is anyone's guess. I believe the better term for what we are experiencing is mild stagflation Actually even if we aren’t tecnically in a recession, that doesn’t mean we will get through this that easily, the fed rate cutting was the reason we have been able to keep growth continuing, however that has triggered inflation in food and crude oil prices, however the Fed is still faced with dropping property values and rising foreclosures so whether they can stop cutting rates is anyone’s guess.

I believe the better term for what we are experiencing is mild stagflation

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