Rasmussen: Obama’s Lead Cut To Single Digits In North Carolina
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, PollsPreviously the contest stood at Obama/Clinton, 51/37. Now it’s 49/40.
The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.
Forty percent (40%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.
I can’t help but think this tightening is due to the reemergence of Wright.
More as it develops…
This entry was posted on Friday, May 2nd, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, North Carolina, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
If pre-PA demographics were to hold, Obama would be expected to win NC by 12 or more points.
Since it doesn’t look like that will happen, he’s in trouble.
A single-digit margin for BO in NC would be a victory for HRC.
Should that be partnered with a Clinton victory in IN, the remaining superdelegates will have some serious soul-searching on their plates.
May 2nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Any chance of getting the Reverend Jeremiah Wright in the spotlight again? Actually, I think a panel show, maybe Larry King, with Wright, Rezko, and Ayers ought to do the trick. Should presidential candidates be judged by the company they keep? Absolutely. Can McCain beat Hillary? Hmmmm…
May 2nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hillary needs to win these contests by big margins in order to make up the pledged delegate difference. She can’t keep swapping delegate counts with Obama and keeping that margin at 130 or so. Because one way or another, she’s going to have to get 70% of the remaining pledged delegates or 70% or the remaining superdelegates. Do you really think that’s likely?
This “Hillary has a shot” meme is a creation of the Clinton campaign and is being pushed by the media because it’s easy for them to do it given her recent victory. There’s no mention of the fact that Obama cut her lead from 20 points to just under 10. But hey, it’s a good story, right?
May 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
Justin Gardner wrote:
“Hillary needs to win these contests by big margins in order to make up the pledged delegate difference.”
If Obama’s demographics remain where they are, the supers will realize that he is unelectable, and will throw their weight behind HRC.
“Because one way or another, she’s going to have to get 70% of the remaining pledged delegates …”
Clearly, that won’t happen.
“… or 70% or the remaining superdelegates.”
See above.
The probable result will be a HRC/BO ticket.
“This “Hillary has a shot” meme is a creation of the Clinton campaign …”
The “race doesn’t matter” meme is a creation of the cultural mandarins that presume to do our thinking for us.
“There’s no mention of the fact that Obama cut her lead from 20 points to just under 10.”
A 20% victory margin in PA was simply not conceivable. The 10% (okay, 9.2%) result was consistent with Ohio.