Comments on: How Bad Is It For Hillary? http://donklephant.com/2008/05/05/how-bad-is-it-for-hillary/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 14 Feb 2012 14:03:13 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: kranky kritter http://donklephant.com/2008/05/05/how-bad-is-it-for-hillary/comment-page-1/#comment-404143 kranky kritter Mon, 05 May 2008 16:39:12 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5466#comment-404143 That's about the right ballpark, and the way I've been approaching it for some time. If HC and BO roughly split the remaining delegates, then Clinton will need to carry somewhere between 5 out of every 8 and 2 out of every 3 superdelegates. That's pretty uphill. Carrying 55% is the sort of threshold for reasonability that I've based my reasoning on. If you win by 10%, 55-45, you're getting one person out of 20 to swing away from 50-50, giving 11-9 instead of 10-10. To carry 2/3 of the voters, that means you are getting one person out of THREE to switch away from the 50-50 count. Now I don't dismiss the possibility, as these superdelegates are undoubtedly eager to broker the power they've been granted, and they are after all politicians. But 2 out of 3 is a very high bar when you're talking politics and voting. Obama is running out the clock. If the upcoming results are as expected, and Obama wins the more delegate-rich NC while Hillary carries the less-delegate rich IN, then Obama is all that much closer to running out that clock. That’s about the right ballpark, and the way I’ve been approaching it for some time. If HC and BO roughly split the remaining delegates, then Clinton will need to carry somewhere between 5 out of every 8 and 2 out of every 3 superdelegates. That’s pretty uphill.

Carrying 55% is the sort of threshold for reasonability that I’ve based my reasoning on. If you win by 10%, 55-45, you’re getting one person out of 20 to swing away from 50-50, giving 11-9 instead of 10-10. To carry 2/3 of the voters, that means you are getting one person out of THREE to switch away from the 50-50 count.

Now I don’t dismiss the possibility, as these superdelegates are undoubtedly eager to broker the power they’ve been granted, and they are after all politicians. But 2 out of 3 is a very high bar when you’re talking politics and voting.

Obama is running out the clock. If the upcoming results are as expected, and Obama wins the more delegate-rich NC while Hillary carries the less-delegate rich IN, then Obama is all that much closer to running out that clock.

]]> By: Justin Gardner http://donklephant.com/2008/05/05/how-bad-is-it-for-hillary/comment-page-1/#comment-404127 Justin Gardner Mon, 05 May 2008 16:27:25 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5466#comment-404127 Fixed. Thanks for that. Fixed. Thanks for that.

]]> By: Rob in Denver http://donklephant.com/2008/05/05/how-bad-is-it-for-hillary/comment-page-1/#comment-404057 Rob in Denver Mon, 05 May 2008 15:49:35 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=5466#comment-404057 The link to the NYT delegate widget is malformed. The link to the NYT delegate widget is malformed.

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