Comments on: The Road To 270

By: Patrick

Patrick — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 18:37:02 +0000

I hate to talk about someone else’s blog in the comments, but I read both of these sites regularly. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ this site is the best i think for judging who is going to win, personal opinion mccain wins the electoral vote but obama wins by millions in the popular vote, chaos ensues

By: ExiledIndependent

ExiledIndependent — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 17:46:26 +0000

I agree that the VPs matter more than in any recent election, but I disagree with the “moderate” descriptor. I want to see the candidates who pick VPs that actually bring something valuable–thinking, experience, a balancing skillset, whatever–to the ticket rather than someone who is moderate.

By: kranky kritter

kranky kritter — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 17:10:23 +0000

Why not go way farther? Go ahead and give all those “leans” to their respective preferred candidate. Then let’s look at the iffiest “toss-ups.” I’d bet money McCain carries FL and VA, and I also doubt the “C) goes blue” case. I’d also bet money Obama carries WA, OR, and PA, while doubting the “MI goes red” hypothesis.

So quite possibly Ohio will pick the next President, or whoever gets 3 or 4 from from CO, MI, OH. NM, and WI. Unless something happens to push the trends strongly one way or the other across many states. That something could be an event (a domestic terrorist attack, a coup in Iraq, an economic collapse) or it could be a gathering mo for one guy or the other, like a fearful rejection of the risk of choosing the inexperienced, big-eared liberal, or a fed-up rejection of the status quo tired old addled hawkish bush extension.

By: Bob

Bob — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 17:06:55 +0000

The VPs for the first time since Johnson may actually matter in getting states. If McCain gets more of a traditional conservative look for some of those lean states to turn base (MS, AR, IN, LA, MS).

But this is why I laughed at all the Obama landslide talk, it’s just not possible with the entrenched partisanship and current electoral map. This election may end up being Clinton/Dole but it’s no Reagan/Mondale.