Quinnipiac: Obama Leads By 4 In Florida
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Florida, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansObama - 47%
McCain - 43%
This is a tight one, but the fact that Obama is leading before the conventions is telling. Florida was supposed to be a pain point for him after the Dem primary, but women and independent voters are falling in line.
Some demo info…
Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent.
Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.
All in all, a good polling day for Obama from Quinnipiac.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 18th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Florida, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
June 18th, 2008 at 9:16 am
RCP still has McCain with a 5.7% edge in Florida, and a 1.6% lead in Michigan.
Though Virginia has leveled off and they’re calling it a tie, and McCain is still up by 4.2% in North Carolina.
I’ve got to admit, with all the talk of Obama trying to rewrite the map, it seemed to me that Virginia and NoCo would be showing stronger for him. Maybe its too easily in the cycle, but it’s not like Obama’s vaunted ground game hasn’t already been hammering away there during the primary. And Georgia, which you hear about Obama trying to win is still in the McCain camp to the tune of a 12.5% lead.
June 18th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Glad to see you paying atention to the state by states, Justin. In getting to 270, that’s what matters.
Now all you have to do is frame such posts within the context of the trend within the state or within several similar states. I am not sure how often any of the given battleground states will be polled, but at this point, there’ are only one or two really important questions about this single Florida data point:
1)Is it an outlier
2)is there a trend towards Obama that can be seen across several recent FL polls
If the answers, respectively, are yes and no, I’d wait awhile before getting too encouraged.
Middle, count me among those skeptical of Obama’s prospects in many of the red states he’s alleged to be capable of contesting. My guess is Georgia is right off the “maybe” list unless it’s part of some larger landslide. IOW, I don’t see it happening. NC does seem worth watching, especially if there’s reason to think the “likely voter” profiles are not capturing the expected turnout amojng African American votes, who have been routinely going for Obama by 8 to 2 and 9 to 1 ratios.
That latter is also strong reason to think Obama will carry MI, too. How many urban African Americans in MI will ultimately turn out and vote for Obama? Quite possibly way more than the likely voter profiles on which the polls are based, In part due to the fact that various pollsters are going to make different guesses on this matter, I think we can expect more divergent results than usual.
I know McCain has polled well in MI, IMO in large part due to his willingness to blatantly pander to worried and displaced blue collar workers. As the campaign goes on, i am sure neither candidate will let himself get outpandered on this issue. Given the nature of the most hotly contested states, the price of gas, the rate of inflation, and general state of the economy, this is a virtual given.
When it comes to domestic policy, McCain will have a very hard time if the best show his troupe can put on is called “democrat lite.”
June 18th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I am now predicting that McCain will not be the GOP nominee
I know its a little out there, but I think the GOP will start to realize he can’t beat Obama
June 18th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
Are you kidding me? And people thought Obama-Hillary would rip the Dems apart… How could the RNC possibly justify NOT making McCain the nominee. I mean, that’d be tantamount to saying;
“We really don’t care what the hell the people of our party say they want. Were just going to run our own guy who we’ve selected, and we, the insiders like and feel has a better chance of winning. Oh yeah, and sorry John, but those millions and millions of dollars you spent on TV ads already, well, you’re on the hook for that.”
June 18th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Kranky, McCain could win with a centrist appeal in Michigan. Its not likely, but its far from impossible. Plus, we have to remember, we’re a long ways from election day and a lot can happen between now and then to raise or lower the fortunes of either party. You know the DNC and RNCC are holding back some haymakers like they always do to try and have the final big say before the election. What would a capture of Bin Laden do for the RNCC? It’d be huge.
Likewise, if the oil or economic markets (intertwined, I know) get significantly worse, then the Dems keep taking an edge in relation to the downturn of both markets. So really, while we love our non-stop news action, this election can, and still likely will be won or lost largely on the events of the next 5 months.
Getting back to the elector map - the place where I see Obama making a difference is in Virginia and NoCo. Both seem to have relatively similar demographics, and with strong black populations and Obama’s ground game, those become winnable. But this isn’t going to be like Clinton’s 1996 drubbing where he won all manner of firmly red states.
June 18th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
[...] the heels of today’s Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama up by 4, American Research Group finds a similar spread in the Sunshine [...]