Comments on: Newsweek: Obama Has 15 Point National Lead http://donklephant.com/2008/06/20/newsweek-obama-has-15-point-national-lead/ Big Teeth. Huge Ass. Surprisingly Reasonable. Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:37:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: Benjamin http://donklephant.com/2008/06/20/newsweek-obama-has-15-point-national-lead/comment-page-1/#comment-410116 Benjamin Fri, 20 Jun 2008 23:08:49 +0000 http://donklephant.com/?p=6076#comment-410116 Interesting statistics to be sure, but I'm always skeptical of polling this early on in a general election season. Constant polling is different during the primary season -- there are constant contests that will change the polls as candidates win or lose primaries. Now that we're in the general election, there's nothing "tangible" like primaries or caucuses to affect poll numbers, just gaffes or inspiring speeches to lower or raise someones percentages, respectively. It will be interesting to see how much these polls fluctuate between now and November, though it would be even more interesting if they did not change at all! I expect them to change quite a bit following debates and various big news events, but it makes me wonder the benefit of polling this early on in the game. Interesting statistics to be sure, but I’m always skeptical of polling this early on in a general election season. Constant polling is different during the primary season — there are constant contests that will change the polls as candidates win or lose primaries. Now that we’re in the general election, there’s nothing “tangible” like primaries or caucuses to affect poll numbers, just gaffes or inspiring speeches to lower or raise someones percentages, respectively.

It will be interesting to see how much these polls fluctuate between now and November, though it would be even more interesting if they did not change at all! I expect them to change quite a bit following debates and various big news events, but it makes me wonder the benefit of polling this early on in the game.

]]>