Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 2, 1
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansWith leaners
Obama – 47%
McCain – 45%
Without leaners
Obama – 43%
McCain – 42%
Much bigger moves today in the numbers, as the “without leaners” numbers result in a net 3 point gain for McCain.
The significance…
In a race that has been so steady for so long, it is easy to overreact to the slightest movement. It will take another few days to see if this is merely statistical noise or if it marks a slight change from the stability of the race that has been evident since Obama wrapped up the nomination.Either way, the campaign remains surprisingly competitive in a year where the fundamentals so heavily favor the Democrats. Thirty-five percent (35%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Thirty-three percent (33%) say the same about McCain.
It’s going to be an interesting few months.
As I said yesterday, because these numbers are fairly consistent with Gallup’s daily tracking, they’re probably very close. Who knows how close, but I trust these over those taking every month by USA Today, Reuters, etc.
The 5 day w/leaners:
07/11/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 47%
07/10/2008: McCain – 45%, Obama – 48%
07/09/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 48%
07/08/2008: McCain – 43%, Obama – 49%
07/07/2008: McCain – 44%, Obama – 49%
The 5 day w/o leaners:
07/11/2008: McCain – 42%, Obama – 43%
07/10/2008: McCain – 41%, Obama – 45%
07/09/2008: McCain – 41%, Obama – 45%
07/08/2008: McCain – 40%, Obama – 46%
07/07/2008: McCain – 41%, Obama – 46%
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Friday, July 11th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
