John McCain wisely decided to take my advice today. “During a Friday interview with CNN, McCain called a 16-month withdrawal from Iraq “a pretty good timetable.”
X-posted at Donklephant….

Politicians put their foot in their mouth on a regular basis. Sometimes it may be the result of long hours on the campaign trail, sometimes because they simply can’t keep their facts straight and sometimes because they can’t keep their lies straight. Sometimes it’s simply because they do not understand the facts.

Couric/McCain Interview:

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/i_video/main500251.shtml?id=4284432n%22%20rel=%22nofollow%22%3E

Per President Bush and Col. MacFarland, the Anbar awakening was already well under way through organized efforts by the tribal leaders well before the surge began. These events took place months before the surge was even announced. Per McCain, the surge ‘began’ the Anbar awakening.

http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=3738

McCain also neglects the fact that although the surge helped to support an awakening already in progress, the new troops headed for Baghdad, not Anbar. He also gives little credit to the ongoing Sadr truce.

The Couric interview gets even more interesting as McCain tries to distance himself from the numerous failed Iraq policies under the Bush administration:

“McCain: The fact is we had four years of failed policy. We were losing. We were losing the war in Iraq. The consequences of failure and defeat of the United States of America in the first major conflict since 9/11 would have had devastating impacts throughout the region and the world.”

Why would McCain support a president responsible for four years of failure?

“no one has supported President Bush on Iraq more than I have.” [John McCain, 03/28/08)

“The fact is that I have agreed with President Bush far more than I have disagreed. And on the transcendent issues, the most important issues of our day, I’ve been totally in agreement and support of President Bush.” [John McCain, 06/19/05]

“I am proud of this president’s strategy in Iraq.” [John McCain, upon receiving endorsement from President Bush, 02/13/08]

Gaffes and old quotes are a living history of our thought processes, how well we think, what we think and when we think it. Even Carly can’t change that fact:

“To say that John McCain was aligned with President Bush on the prosecution of the war in Iraq is to change history.” [Carly Fiorina, McCain Campaign Advisor, 07/13/08]

The McCain campaign should be thankful the media has let them slide on many major issues, such as his voting record on veteran health issues and successful effort to shut down all investigation into remaining POW/MIA over the protests of their families and veteran groups in order to open up trade with Vietnam (his father-in-law immediately opened up a multi-billion dollar beer industry there).

http://www.aiipowmia.com/sea/schanberg_mccain.html

McCain has been given no media coverage on the very real probability he suffers from PTSD.

“Among U.S. servicemen taken captive during the Korean War, as many as nine out of 10 survivors may suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mental disorders more than 35 years after their release, psychologist Patricia B. Sutker of the New Orleans Veterans Administration Medical Center and her colleagues report in the January AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHIATRY.”

My advice for McCain:

Perhaps he should not look a gift horse in the mouth.

“I doubt .5% of voters care about divided government.” – MR

Hmmm. Looks like I need to threadjack my own post. What Michael says may be true in a literal sense, but that does not really speak to my point. This is in part my fault and an artifact of the the way I use the term.

Divided government is, of course, not an end goal in and of itself, but a means to an end. Because I do write about it so much, I tend to use the words “divided government” as a kind of shorthand, standing in for the benefits we historically get in a divided government state. Specifically, historical political scholarship shows those benefits to be restrained growth in spending, more oversight, more fiscal responsibility, and (arguably) more carefully considered legislation and fewer wars. It also is a way of avoiding the worst of the rampant corruption and abuse of power that we always get with single party control, regardless of party. Now I’ll suggest those are all things that people do care about. To the degree that people connect divided government as a means to achieve those ends, people will care about divided government. Those are certainly things I care about, hence my quixotic obsession.

That said, the “divided government” vote is a vote on the margin. In a landslide it gets swamped, but in a close election (like many races in 2006), it can be determinative. I expect interest in the divided government meme to ramp in the last two months before the election, much as it did in 2006. Consider this screenshot of a graph comparing blog posts mentioning “divided government” and “unity08″ for the six months prior to the mid-terms. With no money or organized effort, “divided government” was getting as much attention as the richly funded, professionally staffed, P.R. driven Unity08 at its peak, when it was first announced with much fanfare in June 2006. In part the interest at the end is fueled by the party that benefits from its promotion. In 2006, Dems promoted it and Reps dismissed it. In 2008 Dems are dismissive and Reps are supportive. Surprise.

I could go on, break down the electorate, and quantify the size of the voting block that will consider the meme in casting their vote, but I better save something for a future post.

I think you’re giving McCain sound advice, but he’s screwed either way. He had 1 1/2 campaign issues: Iraq and Offshore drilling. He just lost Iraq as an issue. It’s not coming back. Which means he’s got drilling.

Obama has the economy, health care and his message of “hope.” Who do you think wins that fight?

I think the more likely outcome of this strategy for McCain would be that (with both candidates identical on future iraq strategy) voters would decide based on the economy or health care (which are the other big issues of the day). I think McCain loses on those issues.