Comments on: Is This Election Really That Close?

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » John McCain takes my advice.

Donklephant » Blog Archive » John McCain takes my advice. — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 18:15:34 +0000

[...] am beginning to think we should postpone the coronation, and go ahead and hold the election. This entry was posted on Saturday, July 26th, 2008 and is [...]

By: susan

susan — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 18:47:18 +0000

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

By: Justin Gardner

Justin Gardner — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 00:51:29 +0000

But who out there is calling it a toss-up? Who isnâ€™t accounting for these factors?

The entire mainstream media? They’re trying to say this is a horserace and Obama should be WAY ahead. Trust me, anything that points to an Obama weakness they highlight. This meme is all over cable news. And that’s to be expected because that makes things seem like they’re close, which makes voters keep watching and reading.

But yes, this is what I’ve been noticing by following the polls every single day, noting the enthusiasm gap between the candidates and seeing how it all breaks down when you look at the electoral map. I’m obviously not ready to call anything yet, but I definitely think this is Obama’s to lose because McCain is turning out to be the Republican’s Kerry.

By: Rich Hudson

Rich Hudson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 23:09:38 +0000

It’s fabricated drama. The news has become a reality show, because fake drama sells more papers and gets more clicks than the truth. Remember when the MSM spent days speculating if Obama was going to pick Hillary as his running mate â€” when there wasn’t a chance in hell that he would? More fake drama.

Plus there’s the media’s fear that negative news (i.e., the truth) about McCain would alienate readers and viewers who’ve been brainwashed by too much Fox News.

So it’s not so much conservative bias as placing ratings above accurate reporting.

By: Ed in NJ

Ed in NJ — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:47:07 +0000

Polls will never capture voter enthusiasm completely. So in every poll, there is a requirement to represent a representative slice of the electorate, i.e. the % of Rs, D, and Is, young and old, college-educated and non, income level, etc. etc. But the reality is that on election day, because of the much greater enthusiasm for Obama’s candidacy amongst his supporters, and his vastly superior GOTV infrastructure, what looks to be a close race may turn into an historical electoral landslide.

By: TheMiddle

TheMiddle — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:32:56 +0000

I think its a lot closer than Dems would like to think. Its certainly a race, which, considering the primary turnout numbers is still somewhat surprising to me. I mean, consider that Obama and Hillary were routinely garnering more than double the entire combined Republican turnout during those contests. I know, I know, not exactly apples to apples. But Im surprised all the same.

By: Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Election 2008: A Nail-Biter Or A Blow-out ?

Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:56:54 +0000

[...] Sabato for one doesn’t think so: Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has [...]

By: John Dickerson

John Dickerson — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:31:52 +0000

The analysis is correct and the point totally valid. But who out there is calling it a toss-up? Who isn’t accounting for these factors? I’d have liked to have seen Mann, Sabato, etc. offer a little proof. Sure, in stories that cite a recent poll finding and that are circumscribed to that topic they don’t have to reassert these larger points in Obama’s favor but is a story wrong or if it doesn’t mention those larger structural factors every time? Maybe so. Doesn’t seem like it to me though.