Rasmussen: Obama Leads By 1, 2
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansWith leaners
Obama - 47%
McCain - 46%
Without leaners
Obama - 44%
McCain - 42%
The bounce is gone, and as I mentioned yesterday, I trust Rasmussen’s numbers more because they’ve always seem to be more stable.
Tully was nice enough to point out that it’s most likely due to the fact that Rasmussen polls “likely” voters, and Gallup polls “registered” voters. And to that point…
Remember that a full 25% or more of registered voters NEVER VOTE. Ever. They fill out the registration form at the Driver’s License office and never go to the polls. Some are disinterested, some are illegal immigrants who are afraid to vote, whatever, they don’t vote and so their opinion has no bearing at all on the prediction of future elections.
Additionally, here’s a little demo info…
Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men.
Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans.
It’s pretty amazing to see men and women so evenly divided. And if McCain really wanted to make a splash, he’d probably seriously consider a woman to be on his ticket. I know there’s been talk about Sarah Palin, but looks like things are leaning towards Tim Pawlenty, who seems like an absolute snoozer to me. McCain doesn’t need a snoozer, he needs a rockstar.
The 5 day w/leaners:
07/29/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
07/28/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 48%
07/27/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 49%
07/26/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 49%
07/25/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 49%
The 5 day w/o leaners:
07/29/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 44%
07/28/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
07/27/2008: McCain - 41%, Obama - 46%
07/26/2008: McCain - 40%, Obama - 46%
07/25/2008: McCain - 41%, Obama - 46%
The question again today: what will Gallup show?
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 29th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
July 29th, 2008 at 8:58 am
McCain has to know that Pawlenty gives him nothing. However, Team McCain must know the correct answers to the below questions:
1. Which McCain Veep pick is SIMULTANEOUSLY the safest AND boldest?
ANSWER: Sarah Palin
2. How can McCain SIMULTANEOUSLY attract both Hillary AND Bob Barr voters?
ANSWER: Sarah Palin
* * *
And then there’s this from the Conservative Voice:
“Desperately seeking Sarah
July 26, 2008 10:00 AM EST
By Stephan Andrew Brodhead
Desperately seeking Sarah
Americans need a little Palin Power
Sarah Palin the current Governor of Alaska is John McCain’s ultimate choice for VP. I do believe a woman is next in line for the presidency. All Conservatives like her. She is popular in Alaska. Hillary supporters would relish her. She would solidify a 12 or possibly 16 year Republican executive.
John McCain’s boring campaign is wearing thin. I need a little Palin Power to get me interested again. They would say ‘but she is only a half term Governor!’ And your point is?
That’s all I have to say about that!”