Yesterday it was 4, and so it tightens further. The details… Obama’s much anticipated overseas trip enters its sixth day, but so far it has not meaningfully affected the choice for president voters would make if the election were held today. Obama has held a modest advantage over McCain for all but a few days [...]

When you follow this race every single day, each piece of data that comes in starts to create a kind of picture, and the one I’ve been seeing take shape squares with what Larry Sabato is describing… Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has [...]

Obama – 50 McCain – 39 Obama loses 2 from last month, but the 11 point margin remains pretty consistent with other polls I’m seeing. Some demo info… Women back Obama 56 – 31. Men back McCain 49 – 43. White voters back Obama 48 – 42 percent. Obama leads 60 – 31 among voters [...]

Obama – 46 McCain – 42 Last month it was Obama 48 to 42, so this race has tightened a bit, but is still outside of the margin of error. Some demo info… Women back Obama 50 – 38 percent. Men back McCain 47 – 42 percent. Whites back McCain 48 – 40 percent. Blacks [...]

McCain – 46 Obama – 44 On June 26th, Obama was up 49 to 44, so this represents a 7 point net gain for McCain. Some demo info… Obama leads 50 – 39 percent among women. Men back McCain 55 – 37 percent. White voters back McCain 51 – 41 percent. Hispanic voters go with [...]

With leaners Obama – 48% McCain – 45% Without leaners Obama – 45% McCain – 41% A net gain of one in each for Obama today. Still tight, but evidence that this overseas trip is having an effect? Of note… Obama is viewed favorably by 55% of voters, McCain by 54%. While the single point [...]

Rattling around the Internets yesterday was this report that, in an interview with CBS, John McCain misstated the timeline for the Iraq surge and the Anbar Awakening. The Awakening began before President Bush announced the troop increases but McCain’s statements made it sound as if the surge directly led to the Sunni revolt against al-Qaida [...]

First, his opening shot (emphasis mine)… What worries me is the complete lack of accountability by Fannie’s and Freddie’s executives, as well as Wall Street investment bankers also now being insured by taxpayers. We’ve created the worst form of socialized capitalism—private gains combined with public losses. These executives and bankers are among the best paid [...]

First the graphic, which shows that Obama has gained in blue states, purple states and red states… Honestly, if this keeps up, Obama will win big. There’s just no other way to put it. McCain can’t be down by a 6 point average in swing states and win this election. It simply won’t happen. And, [...]

Obama – 46% McCain – 45% Last month, McCain led Obama by 7 and in May the margin was 8. What changed? Among independent voters, Obama has a 23 point lead. Obama leads 50% to 43% among women. McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%. McCain is viewed favorably [...]

He gains one since yesterday, and hasn’t trailed McCain since late June. The details… Many observers (and based on its reaction, the McCain campaign itself) have hypothesized that Obama could have the chance of making a major breakthrough in voter sentiment as a result of the streaming video and photos and news coverage of the [...]

With leaners Obama – 47% McCain – 45% Without leaners Obama – 45% McCain – 42% A little movement in Obama’s favor today, but still not enough to suggest he’s starting to pull away. Rasmussen share some numbers on Obama’s perceived level of experience among Dems… While Obama has been on an overseas tour, 45% [...]

If I were Bobby Jindal, I’d be saying this too. There’s no way he’s ready to be VP (or President for that matter) at only 37, and he certainly doesn’t want to be used as a way to boost McCain’s “diversity” cred. From Fox News: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said Wednesday he will not run [...]

That nasty, despicable rag, Vanity Fair has released on their website what has to be the most offensive cover of all time. I am shocked. No, horrified. I’ve had my children leave the room and I’m preparing to burn this computer which has been irrevocably sullied by the display of such an image. How anyone [...]

Some sage advice for McCain from the columnist who once supported the Iraq war… While we would like an Iraqi national movement — binding Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis — to coalesce, we don’t want it coalescing in opposition to us. Running against the continued U.S. presence in Iraq will be a very tempting campaign theme [...]

“This is a clear choice that the American people have. I had the courage and the judgment to say I would rather lose a political campaign than lose a war. It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.” – John McCain in Rochester, New Hampshire [...]

Is it just me, or could Barack Obama be the most skilled politician in a generation? If not more? I’m not talking about leadership, mind you. I’m talking about his ability to navigate this campaign with a poise and seamlessness that we haven’t seen anyone, not even Bill Clinton, manage in a long, long time. [...]

I literally could not believe it when I read it (the article is from February), but here we go…because Obama came from a white mother and a highly educated black father…it follows that he’s more predisposed to be a Communist. I know, it sounds like the stuff of fiction, but take a read from Lisa [...]

With leaners Obama – 46% McCain – 46% Without leaners Obama – 43% McCain – 42% Not much movement today as the margins continue to show that this a tossup. Rasmussen has some demographic breakdowns… When leaners are included, Obama leads by six points among women while McCain has a seven point edge among men. [...]

Looks like yesterday was a momentary bump that didn’t last, as Obama lost a net 3. The details… Obama performed above par with voters in two of the last four days of Gallup Poll Daily tracking, spanning a period of heavy news coverage of his overseas trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. This [...]