An Electoral Tie?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Electoral College, History, Independents, McCain, RepublicansDoug Mataconis runs the numbers and comes up with an extremely plausible map…
Colorado is incredibly tight, as is Ohio, Florida and Virginia. If McCain is able to keep all of those in the Republican column, then it’s 1824 all over again.
Thoughts?
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August 18th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
It could also happen if he won colorado, but lost New Hampshire and Nevada, if it does we likely have President Obama since the house will be majority Dem
August 18th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Any state that uses punch paper ballots, that could result in hanging chads, will summarily be nuked outta the Union!!!!!
Agnostick
agnostick@excite.com
August 18th, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Not necessarily true, if thrown into the House of Representatives, each state will only have one vote, which the Representatives will have to caucus to determine how to vote.
McCain does win more states then Obama…
August 19th, 2008 at 7:29 am
Gilmore,
It’s more complicated than that.
Let’s say John McCain wins North Carolina on Election Day but the election gets thrown into the House. Right now North Carolina has 8 Democratic Congressmen and 5 Republicans. Assuming that stays the same in the 111th Congress, what do you think would be the response if N.C.’s 8 Democrats used their majority to cast the Tarheel State’s vote for Obama ?
There are other states where this could happen, and still others where the delegation is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats (in the case of a tie among members in a state, no vote would be cast for that state).
There could be similar problems in the Senate, which would be charged with the task of picking a Vice-President.
And this would all be happening from the day after Election Day, all through November and December, and right up to January 3rd when the 111th Congress convenes.
It would make Florida 2000 look like a walk in the park.
August 19th, 2008 at 7:37 am
One thing’s for sure, whichever side loses will say they got screwed.
On the bright side:
•50% of the partisan heads will explode.
• no one gets to say they have a mandate
August 19th, 2008 at 7:42 am
kranky kritter,
I would also bet that if something like this did unfold, we’d see a Constitutional Amendment changing the manner in which Presidents are elected ratified within 4 years.
Personally, I would prefer keeping the Electoral College but changing the method in which Electors are allocated to have it based on Congressional Districts.
For example, if McCain won 5 of Virginia’s 11 Congressional Districts and Obama won 6, they’d get 6 and 5 electors respectively. The remaining two Electoral Votes, representing the Senate seats, would be allocated to whichever candidate won the popular vote in the state.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:02 am
kranky, I guarantee you that McCain would still claim a mandate. It’s been a Republican requirement lately.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Jim S.,
And Obama would do the same thing under similar circumstances.
Guaranteed.
August 19th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Actually Gilmore, Nate at 538 ran the numbers, he found that the new congress will likely have more dem controlled states
August 19th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Under the proposed interstate compact, there would never be a tie in the electoral vote because the compact always represents a bloc consisting of a majority of the electoral votes. Thus, an election for President would never be thrown into the House of Representatives (with each state casting one vote) and an election for Vice President would never be thrown into the Senate (with each Senator casting one vote).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 am
I’m actually predicting that the state delegations in the House will come out tied 25-25. Regardless of whether you agree on the makeup of the 2009 House or not, does anyone know what happens in the states are tied 25-25? I’m not aware of a tie-breaking scenario like in the senate.
(The VP choice would go to the newly elected senate, which in this case would easily vote for Biden. However if the senate were to tie, which seemed likely in 2004 if that election had gone to congress, the old VP is the tie breaker which in 2004 would mean that Cheney would have cast the tie-breaking vote for VP - presumably for himself.)
So my question is - does anyone know what the tie-breaking procedure is in the House? Do they stay behind closed doors until they’ve picked a winner (like with the pope)? Do they move to one Rep one vote? Does the outgoing VP get to cast a tie-breaking vote in the House too?
I have no idea what the correct answer is and am quite curious.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:34 am
Emily,
It would be the Election of 1800 all over again. The House would have until 1/20/09 to pick a President under the 12th Amendment. If they fail to do so, then the Vice-President elect (most likely, Biden) would become President. If the Senate fails to pick a Vice-President, then the Speaker of the House would become President of the United States.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:35 am
As for the National Popular Vote thing, I think this is a terrible idea in theory.
The reasons for the electoral vote are every bit as relevant in 2008 as they were in 1789, if not more so. It’s to protect the interests of the smaller states from being drowned out by the bigger states. The electoral college, I think, is actually rather brilliant. It means that while the vote is still roughly based on population, the smaller states get a disproportionately larger say than they otherwise would, although still less than the small states.
The problems we see today are not the fault of the constitution or the electoral college. The problems are the result of 48 of the 50 states all choosing to award their votes on a majority-take-all basis. (Maine and Nebraska award their votes by congressional district - the two votes representing their senators go to the statewide winner, and the other votes are by House district.)
My ideal system looks more like the way most states allocate their Democratic delegates to the convention and a few states allocate their Republican delegates: based on the proportion of the state that they win. I’d actually add a two vote bonus to whomever wins the state as a whole. The difference between my system and Maine and Nebraska’s is that mine is not subject to gerrymandering whereas Maine and Nebraska’s systems are.
So say the vote in Ohio is 51% McCain 49% Obama (which reflects current polling in the state). Under the current system McCain gets all of Ohio’s 20 votes and Obama gets none of them. Under my scenario McCain gets two votes for winning the state, and they split the remaining 18 votes down the middle. McCain ends up with 11 of Ohio’s votes and Obama gets 9.
This makes it less likely that a situation like 2000 arises where the winner of the popular vote does not win the election, although still not impossible. If it happens that the winner of the popular vote does not win the election under my scenario, it’s because the winner of the popular vote got most of his/her vote in the most populous states. I really think there’s merit in giving the small states disproportionately larger voices.
September 3rd, 2008 at 11:38 am
To Doug:
Thanks for that - I didn’t realize! So in other words if that were to happen this year, Biden would become president and then get to pick a VP. Wonder if he would pick Obama. Wouldn’t that be something!