I’m not sure. The Republicans always seem more unified than the Democrats. Perhaps it’s the price you pay for being the current “big tent” party.

Regardless, I’m really disappointed with the Obama campaign’s lame attempts at countering McCain’s attacks, as I was certain the Democrats had learned a few things after 2004–namely that it’s exceedingly difficult to win a campaign if you’re always on the defensive, and that’s just what the Rovian school of dirty campaigning aims to achieve. After being HAMMERED for the past 10 days, his campaign releases a risible “takes on to know one” styled ad asserting that McCain is the true “celebrity.” It looks like an insincere reflexive reaction and allows the Republicans to control the narrative and subjects framing the election and the media’s coverage of it.

When the republicans accuse John Kerry and Obama of being flip-floppers and Obama of being a celebrity, they’re basically just grabbing a negative characteristic every presidential candidate is guilty of, including the republican candidate, and repeating it ad nauseum and with passionate conviction. Strangely, this strategy seems to fool enough undecided voters who don’t pay much attention to politics that ONLY the accused candidate is guilty of the crime–that the accuser is innocent. The Obama campaign should respond in kind by relentlessly framing McCain as a hypocrite–”hypocrite” being the key word that must be repeated over and over. McCain’s certainly given them enough quotes in the past two years that conflict with previous quotes and votes in the senate. It would also help to undercut his greatest strength–the perception that he’s a “straight talker.” Unlike Roves smears, the Obama campaign wouldn’t even have to fabricate the information it uses to attack McCain insofar as that line of attack would go.

Unless Obama’s campaign quickly learns how to EFFECTIVELY counterattack, I don’t see much chance of a victory. That Obama’s fall in the polls have been so dramatic and so quick following a few dirty jabs by the McCain camp gives the Illinois senator’s presidential bid the aura of a house of cards. How effective will the attacks be when the McCain camp REALLY takes off the gloves in September and October?

Furthermore, don’t expect the Democratic convention to be a game changer for Obama; if I remember correctly, Kerry only received a slight bounce (around 3 points) from the convention in 2004. With the current round the clock coverage of politics and the knowledge of the party’s nominee months before the convention, the conventions serve little purpose and are no longer a source of excitement. Obama might get a 2-3 point bounce, but it will most likely prove ephemeral.

Sorry for the length of the post–I should probably get my own blog if I’m going to rant like that.