Gallup: Obama, McCain Tied At 45%
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansSame numbers as yesterday, and I think what we may be seeing here is a small backlash from Hillary supporters who were angered at the news that their gal hadn’t been picked as VP. But that may change after she speaks at the convention, especially if she makes the point that a vote for McCain is essentially a vote against everything she has ever worked for in her life.
You know, no big deal…
In fact, today’s results, using Aug. 22-24 interviews, show both candidates getting precisely the same number of votes when more than 2,600 national registered voters were asked who they would vote for “if the presidential election were held today.”The race has clearly tightened over the past two weeks, after Obama held a modest advantage (averaging three percentage points) from the time he clinched the Democratic presidential nomination in early June through mid-August.
Will there even be a post-convention bounce? I have my doubts. Because I’m pretty sure that Kerry’s and Bush’s were fairly weak 4 years ago.
More tomorrow…
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August 25th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Given the way the goal posts have gotten moved by the Clintons so often, I really don’t think there was any way possible for Obama to appease Hillary’s voters and still keep the nomination for himself.
I don’t believe that had Obama consulted with her on the VP choice — as some are grousing about — they’d have been happy if he didn’t pick her. And if he’d picked her, they’d have complained it was because he was giving her the consolation prize and not because he actually wanted her.
August 25th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I think the odds of either candidate getting a significant convention bounce that actually lasts and changes the nature of the race are fairly slim.
For one thing, the conventions are so close together this year that there won’t be any time for an Obama convention bounce to even register in the polls before McCain names his VP running mate and, a few days later, the RNC begins.
For another, both of these conventions are effectively sandwiching Labor Day Weekend, the end of summer, and back to school days. I’ve got to wonder how many average Americans, as opposed to political junkies such as you and I, are actually paying attention right now.
August 25th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Doug wrote:
“I’ve got to wonder how many average Americans, as opposed to political junkies such as you and I, are actually paying attention right now.”
That’s the nut right there. Average Americans — whatever that means — probably won’t start caring until after the first debate’s in the can. Even then it might be iffy.
August 25th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I read somewhere recently that there’s a significant portion of the electorate that doesn’t really begin to pay attention to the election until two weeks or so before Election Day.